4 Big Ten football teams set to fall short of expectations in 2026
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Playing in the Big Ten Conference isn’t easy. In fact, the Big Ten has been at the top of the college football landscape in each of the last three seasons. With a league full of talent, if you have a difficult schedule or lack roster talent at important positions, you can be in store for disappointment.
These four teams could fall short of expectations in 2026.
MORE: 4 Big Ten football teams primed for major turnarounds in 2026
Indiana, 16-0 in 2025
This is pretty simple, really. After going undefeated and winning the national title, Indiana can only go down. The chances of the Hoosiers repeating their 2025 dominance are thin at best.
Indiana’s strength of schedule isn’t all that bad. Ranked 33rd overall, per ESPN, the Hoosiers are right in the middle of the Big Ten. But in a four-week stretch, the Hoosiers will have games against both Ohio State and USC at home, with an away game at Michigan. That is a brutal stretch for a team that is replacing a lot of offensive talent.
Curt Cignetti has proven he knows how to win in the Big Ten, and a path to the College Football Playoff is certainly on the table, but a lot will need to go right for IU to have the same success as last season.
Iowa, 9-4 in 2025
Iowa has one of the easier schedules in the Big Ten, but the Hawkeyes are set for major regression in the area that matters most: at QB. Replacing Mark Gronowski isn’t going to be easy for Kirk Ferentz, and he is going to replace the veteran with inexperience.
In typical Iowa fashion, the Hawkeyes are set to have a quarterback battle between two players who have minimal experience at the college football level.
Also in typical Iowa fashion, it’s supposed to have another solid defense with a good rushing attack. But if you don’t have even adequate quarterback play, you’re never going to survive in the Big Ten. And until the Hawkeyes can prove they know anything about developing a quarterback, it’s hard to believe they win nine or more games.
Illinois, 9-4 in 2025
A season ago, Illinois had one of the more favorable schedules in the league, and even with veteran quarterback Luke Altmyer, the Illini couldn’t get over the hill. Entering 2026, Illinois has yet another favorable schedule.
The Illini do play both Ohio State and Oregon, but miss teams like Michigan, Indiana, and Penn State. But Illinois is also without key players.
Bret Bielema went out and landed East Carolina gunslinger Katin Houser to run his offense, but Houser has already played in the Big Ten once, and that didn’t go as planned.
On top of entering 2026 with a new signal caller, Illinois has a new defense. Former Montana head coach Bobby Hauck takes over at defensive coordinator and only eight players return on the defense. With so many variables, it’s hard to believe the Illini won’t take a small step back.
Ohio State, 12-2 in 2025
Expectation is a relative term and for a team like Ohio State, it always expects national championships. And the Buckeyes are more than capable of going undefeated and winning it all this year. Ohio State is full of riches and talent, but it’s also easy to look at the schedule and understand it’s going to be challenging.
The Buckeyes have the No. 8 strength of schedule in the nation and the hardest in the Big Ten. Ohio State will go to Texas in Week 2 with games against Indiana, USC, Oregon, and Michigan on the docket. A season ago, the Buckeyes went undefeated in Big Ten play, but that’s going to be more difficult to do in 2026.
Julian Sayin is back under center and he has playmakers around him, including star Jeremiah Smith. Ohio State will likely be back in the College Football Playoff this season, but Buckeye fans will have to lower expectations in the regular season.
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