Which Group of Six Team Has the Best Shot at the College Football Playoff?

NCAAF College Football News, Photos, Stats, Scores, Schedule & Videos...

Which Group of Six champion from the American Conference, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-12, and Sun Belt will get the automatic invite into this season's College Football Playoff?

Last season, James Madison from the Sun Belt and Tulane from the American each got in, but with ACC champion Duke left out, a change was made. Now, the champions from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, and SEC are automatically in, along with the top CFP-ranked conference champion.

26 for '26, No. 15: The Group of Six Programs With a Shot at the College Football Playoff

Below are our picks to win each of the six leagues, followed by our ranking of which programs have the best chance to get the playoff call.

26 Key Questions for the 2026 Season

26: Winningest Programs Yet To Make the CFP
25: ACC Key Questions
24: Big 12 Key Questions
23: Big Ten Key Questions
22: Top 2027 NFL Draft Prospects
21: SEC Key Questions
20: What's Next in Realignment?
19. Ranking all 30 New Head Coaches
18. Who Has the Easiest Schedules?
17. Who Has the Hardest Schedules?
16. Who Might Be the Next Indiana?

American Conference: Navy

Navy isn't quite as good as it was over the last few years, but it gets a few schedule breaks to be deep in the American Conference title chase.

North Texas and Memphis are home dates, there's no East Carolina, Tulane, or USF to worry about, and the College Football Playoff committee would be forgiving if the Notre Dame game isn't pretty.
– Navy Team Preview

Three Other Top Options:Army, East Carolina, USF

Conference USA: Liberty

Liberty has a chance to go on a wonderful run with no Jacksonville State to deal with and no games against Power Four programs.

Going to Kennesaw State is dangerous, and it may take two wins over Western Kentucky in three weeks to win the Conference USA title, but the overall schedule is light enough to be in the picture all season long – if it can somehow pull off a win at James Madison to kick things off.
– Liberty Team Preview

Three Other Top Options:Jacksonville State, Kennesaw State, Western Kentucky

MAC: Western Michigan

This should be the best team in the MAC for a second year in a row. It gets Miami University at home, doesn't play Ohio, and if it's really College Football Playoff-good, it beats Toledo in the Glass Bowl.

There's little margin for error, though, to get any College Football Playoff respect with the season opener at Michigan.
– Western Michigan Team Preview

Three Other Top Options:Miami University, Ohio, Toledo

Mountain West: UNLV

Just how good is North Dakota State? It might be the best team in the new Mountain West, but there are three problems – at Hawaii, at New Mexico, and most importantly, at UNLV.

The Rebels don't catch any big schedule breaks, missing UTEP in conference play, but they should get to the Mountain West championship for the third year in a row, and with no Boise State to deal with this time around.
– UNLV Team Preview

Three Other Top Options:Hawaii, New Mexico, North Dakota State

Pac-12: San Diego State

San Diego State has the offense this year to make up for all the lost parts on defense, and Boise State should take just a wee step back – but it'll likely be the Broncos vs the Aztecs for the Pac-12 title.

Colorado State, Fresno State, and Washington State will all make plenty of noise, and they should all be good enough to make this a relatively even league. It'll be tough for the Pac-12 champion to have enough wins to push past the other Group of Six champs in the final rankings.
– San Diego State Team Preview

Three Other Top Options:Boise State, Fresno State, Washington State

Sun Belt: James Madison

New year, new head coach, same expectations for James Madison to do something special.

The winner of the East will be the favorite to win the Sun Belt title, but the Dukes have to go to Old Dominion and Georgia Southern. They should be good enough, though, to get past one of the two, or both, to get back to the championship game.
– James Madison Team Preview

Three Other Top Options:Arkansas State, Old Dominion, Troy

CFN's Group of Six CFP Projection

There's a difference between our call to win the respective conferences and the chances of getting into the College Football Playoff.

It would take something miraculous for any Group of Six team to get an at-large berth in a 12-team field without a conference championship, and then there's the other issue.

How many non-conference losses will each league winner have? This list is a combination of who we think has a real shot to win a championship and do it with at least ten wins.

1. UNLV (Mountain West)
2. North Dakota State (Mountain West)
3. James Madison (Sun Belt)
4. Boise State (Pac-12)
5. San Diego State (Pac-12)
6. Navy (American Athletic)
7. New Mexico (Mountain West)
8. Liberty (Conference USA)
9. Hawaii (Mountain West)
10. Western Michigan (MAC)

– James Madison is the biggest key to all of this. It hosts Liberty to start the season and goes to San Diego State on September 19th. Win those two, take the Sun Belt title again, and it should get back to the CFP. (We predict two misfires along the way, though.)

– UNLV has to get to the Mountain West title and win it, but it has a real shot to win at home against Cal and Memphis, and should win at North Texas.

– Fine, we're hedging our bets here a tad with San Diego State our Pac-12 call. Just assume the winner between the Aztecs and Boise State will be close to getting into the CFP, but they'll each likely have at least two losses before the Pac-12 Championship – if they both get there.

– Again, North Dakota State is a wild card. It doesn't have any games against Power Four schools, and it has a real shot to rip through its schedule and at least get a chance in the Mountain West Championship.

More at NCAAF College Football News, Photos, Stats, Scores, Schedule & Videos