What Oregon Can't do Before the College Football Playoff

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The Oregon Ducks are considered by many to be a lock to make the College Football Playoff this season.

However, like we say with Texas and Penn State, nothing matters until games are played during the regular season.

On Paper, Oregon has a top 3 roster in all of college football. Only Texas and Notre Dame arguably have a better roster. 

The Ducks need that experienced roster to overcome a challenging non-conference schedule against Boise State and Oklahoma State before playing a Big Ten schedule against USC, Ohio State, Michigan and Washington.

Heather Dinich of ESPN ranked Oregon as the No. 4 most-likely program to win the national championship. She thinks the Ducks must avoid losing to Ohio State and USC on the road if they want to avoid hosting a playoff game… or a worse fate.

"Oregon avoids Indiana and Penn State this year, but it has two really tricky trips to Ohio State and USC, which should be the highest-ranked opponents the Ducks face on the road," Dinich wrote.

"If they stumble in both those games, they would also lose the head-to-head debate in the ranking, along with their chances at a first-round bye. It could potentially drop them out of range to host a first-round home game, but it depends on how those games and the rest of the season play out."

While beating Ohio State and USC will be challenging. Oregon's season opener comes against Boise State. Dinich thinks that win should give the Ducks and edge for Selection Sunday.

"This year, the committee's highest-ranked team from a Group of 6 conference is guaranteed a spot in the playoff — and it doesn't have to be a conference champion this year," she wrote.

"Boise State should have a chance at that bid, and a head-to-head win against the Broncos could wind up being a sneaky good nonconference win."

It's hard to see Ducks missing the CFP unless they are upset by BSU or Oklahoma State and lose two Big Ten games. Oregon's goal should be to earn a first-round bye, and that seems likely with 11 wins in the regular season.

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