What Clemson Can't do and Make the College Football Playoff

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What Clemson Can't do and Make the College Football Playoff

There's been too much hyperventilating about the Clemson Tigers' 7-6 season in 2025. 

While there is no way to argue that Clemson underperformed last season (as the results of the 2026 NFL Draft would show), head coach Dabo Swinney should be given the benefit of the doubt for the upcoming season.

There are legit questions about the quarterback position and offensive line, but outside of Miami, the ACC doesn't have a clear CFP contender. The Tigers should be in the race with SMU and Louisville for a second ACC bid in the CFP. 

Heather Dinich of ESPN has Clemson as the 29th-most likely program to win the national championship. She thinks the Tigers must avoid bad losses to mediocre ACC teams if they are to return to the CFP.

"Losses to average ACC teams," Dinich wrote about what Swinney must avoid this season. "If Clemson is going to return to national relevance, it can't lose at Syracuse or at Duke, even though the Blue Devils are the reigning ACC champs.

"Clemson can't fly across the country to lose to an unranked Cal team, or stumble to a mediocre North Carolina team at home. The committee will want to see Clemson assert itself against unranked and average opponents."

Those losses plagued Clemson in 2024 and 2025. How the Tigers lost to Syracuse last season is unfathomable.

Dinich disagrees with the ESPN analytics projecting the Tigers of only having a 21.1 percent chance of making the CFP and a 0.7 percent chance of winning the title.

"Clemson will be better, but how much depends in large part on its new quarterback — and even coach Dabo Swinney isn't sure who that is right now," she wtote.

"The computers also give Clemson the fourth-best chance to win the ACC, and that is why the Tigers are one of the lower teams on the list."

Clemson's non-conference schedule could help a CFP case to the selection committee. Though the Tigers will need to beat either LSU or South Carolina. Losses to both programs plus a loss to Miami would leave the Tigers out of the final bracket.

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