Michigan football has no business being ranked No. 16 in preseason AP Top 25
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It is a new era of Michigan football. Kyle Whittingham comes in as the new head coach after Sherrone Moore was fired. Players are excited about Whittingham taking over for Michigan. In his first season as the head coach, the Wolverines are ranked number 16 in the preseason AP Top 25 poll.
Michigan being ranked 16 in the preseason poll is the lowest preseason ranking for the Wolverines since 2021, when they were not ranked in the preseaon poll. They would finish that season ranked third in the nation. They also finished last season ranked 21st, after a loss in the Citrus Bowl to Texas.
Michigan brings back a fair amount of production as well. While they are eighth in the Big Ten in returning production, they are 20th in the nation. They also have the second-highest returning production on offense in the nation. There are plenty of questions heading into the 2026 campaign for Michigan, and one major dispute is the ranking of Michigan and whether 16 was the correct spot.
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A new staff and plenty of transfers
Michigan is bringing nearly an entirely new staff this year. It starts at the head coaching position with Whittingham coming in. He brings in Jason Beck from Utah to be the offensive coordinator and Jay Hill from BYU to run the defense. Only three coaches return from the old staff. Tony Alford returns to coach running backs, Kerry Coombs to run the special teams, and Fred Jackson helping as an off-field analyst. Michigan has had mixed success with new coaches. Rich Rodriguez was a disaster in his first year, going 3-9 in 2008. Brady Hoke then shocked the college football world, leading Michigan to an 11-2 record and a Sugar Bowl win.
Jim Harbaugh’s first year saw Michigan sitting unranked in the preseason poll in 2015. Michigan went 10-3 and finished ranked 12th in the nation. Then Sherrone Moore went 8-5 his first year, and the team finished unranked. Whittingham has a track record, but there is a major question of whether he can do the same in a second place, at an older age, and in a tougher conference.
Meanwhile, as Michigan brings back plenty of players, they will also be relying on key transfers. It starts on special teams. Trey Butkowski, the kicker, Cam Brown, the punter, and Nico Crawford, the long snapper, are all transfers. On defense, John Henry Daley comes in from Utah, and the defensive end was a stud last year. He needs to produce at the same level for the Michigan defense.
The biggest transfer question comes at wide receiver. JJ Buchanan comes in from Utah, as well as Salesi Moa. Jamie Ffrench comes in to provide depth. Michigan did not get a ton of production from wide receivers and needs to have that if Bryce Underwood is the answer at quarterback.
Is Bryce Underwood the answer?
The new Michigan staff has been full of praise for quarterback Bryce Underwood. Still, rival coaches have called Underwood unimpressive. The trajectory Underwood showed at the end of last season is concerning. He threw for 1,440 yards with seven touchdowns in his first seven games. He also ran in three touchdowns and threw just two interceptions. In his last six games, he threw for just 988 yards with four touchdowns and six interceptions. Even more concerning, some of those games were against weaker defensive units, such as Purdue and Northwestern.
Underwood is also learning a new offense. Chip Lindsey was both the offensive coordinator and quarterback coach last year, and the Michigan quarterback struggled with the offense. It is something he even admitted, speaking during the offseason, per Clayton Sayfie of On3.
“I felt overall I could’ve done a better way of showing that I fully trust the play book and everything in those ways by staying more … I was in the film room a lot, but I could’ve done a little more on my behalf, as well. It could’ve been more of a reason of why [there were struggles],” Underwood said. “I feel that having an offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach all in one, the offensive coordinator has so much like the game plan, had to get the things to the receivers, linemen, tight ends, running backs. They have a whole bunch of responsibilities to take care of.”
If Underwood has trouble learning a second system in two years, Michigan will struggle, and a pre-season ranking of 16 will look way too high.
Michigan has a brutal schedule
Michigan has one of the most difficult schedules in the nation in 2026. After opening against Western Michigan, the Wolverines host Oklahoma. They will then face UTEP before a game against a ranked Iowa team. While Minnesota has not been great, a rivalry game on the road can always be an issue as well. Beyond that. Michigan faces number 18 Penn State, number 6 Indiana, and rival Michigan State at home. They also have road trips to Oregon and Ohio State in the last three weeks of the season. That is four top-ten teams, two solid rivalry games, and two other ranked teams in a 12-game schedule.
According to odds provided by DraftKings, Michigan has a win total of 8.5, with the under heavily favored. This means the expectation is an 8-4 season for Michigan. Last year, just one team with four losses ranked higher than 16, and that was an 11-4 playoff-bound Alabama. The highest-ranked four-loss team in 2024 was also a playoff team, Clemson. Still, in both of those situations, the fourth loss came in the playoffs, not the regular season. Four-loss regular-season teams are rarely inside the top 20.
Further, a top 25 ranking would likely require a win in their bowl game. A five-loss team has not finished the season ranked inside the Top 25 since 2022, when South Carolina finished 8-5 and was ranked 23, while Texas finished 8-5 and was ranked 25. Both of those spots are well below the 16th-ranked mark that Michigan currently has.
Unless the Wolverines can figure out everything under a new head coach quickly and then pull some upsets, they will finish well below where the preseason ranking suggests.
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