Season Preview: Will Ohio State reach its win total in 2026?
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Ohio State begins its 2026 season in just two short weeks, kicking off the year against Ball State on Sept. 5. As is always the case, regardless of a mass exodus of talent from last year’s roster to the NFL Draft and graduation, there are colossal expectations in Columbus for the new campaign.
The Buckeyes have been named the No. 1 team in the country in the Preseason AP Poll, but the road ahead will not be easy. Ohio State will play SIX teams who are also ranked to begin the year, four of which will be on the road. Among the six, three of them are ranked in the top six — No. 2 Oregon, No. 5 Texas and No. 6 Indiana.
As a result, despite being the nation’s top dog and holding the best odds to win the College Football Playoff National Championship (+550), the Buckeyes’ win total is lower than you may think…
Ohio State 2026 Win Total: o/u 9.5
Ohio State’s win total for the 2026 season has been set at 9.5, with the over being favored at -168.
Even taking into account the incredibly tough slate for Ryan Day’s crew, that number is a bit shocking in the historical context of the program. Outside of the shortened COVID season in 2020, the Buckeyes have not won fewer than even 11 games since the infamous Tattoo Gate ‘scandal’ in 2011, where they finished 6-7.
Besides those two outliers, Ohio State has won double-digit games in every season since 2004 — more than two decades of at least 10 wins, showcasing the Buckeyes’ dominance as one of the only recession-proof programs in the sport.
That said, this season will be a massive test for Day and his squad.
The schedule is incredibly tough, key players like Caleb Downs, Arvell Reese, Sonny Styles and Kayden McDonald have moved on to the NFL, and you are working with a brand new offensive coordinator in Arthur Smith.
Reaching double-digit wins will not be a walk in the park, but if anyone is capable of pulling it off, it’s Ohio State.
The Schedule Ahead
There are four games on Ohio State’s schedule that already have betting lines, and the Buckeyes are favored in three of them.
The season opener against Ball State shouldn’t be in any doubt, as Ohio State is a 50.5-point favorite against the Cardinals. Mike Uremovich’s crew is projected to finish near the bottom of the MAC in 2026 after going 4-8 in 2025 with an offense that averaged less than 16 points per game.
The same cannot be said for Week 2, where the Buckeyes are 1.5-point underdogs against No. 5-ranked Texas. Ohio State defeated the Longhorns in the 2024 College Football Playoff and again at home in the 2025 season opener, but this meeting will be under the lights in Austin, Texas against now-experienced starter Arch Manning.
The other two games with lines already set (or at least lookahead lines) are matchups against Indiana and Michigan.
The Buckeyes will travel to Bloomington, Indiana on Oct. 17 for a rematch against the defending national champs, where Ohio State is at present a 1.5-point favorite. Day beat up on Curt Cignetti’s group in Columbus in 2024, but Cignetti got the last laugh in last year’s Big Ten Championship Game before going on to win it all.
The Game will take place in Columbus this year, where Ohio State sits as an 11.5-point favorite — a line that will likely shift weekly leading up to the regular season finale. The Buckeyes got the best of the Wolverines in Ann Arbor last year, but will be looking to snap a two-game losing streak at home against their ultimate rival.
There are eight more games on the docket, five of which against teams which enter the season unranked.
Ohio State will be heavily favored in matchups against Kent State, Maryland and Northwestern, all three of which take place in Columbus.
The Golden Flashes come to town on Sept. 19. Like Ball State, Kent State is projected to finish near the bottom of the MAC in the second year of interim-turned-full-time head coach Mark Carney. The Golden Flashes improved from 0-12 in 2024 to a 5-7 mark in 2025, but they are still not quite at the level to compete with a program like Ohio State.
The Terrapins are in a bit of a weird spot heading into 2026. Maryland has its share of star power in Malik Washington at quarterback and both Zahir Mathis and Zion Elee on defense, but Mike Locksley has put together back-to-back 4-8 seasons. Day has also had Locksley’s number, going 4-0 in the head-to-head while outscoring the Terps 219-78 in that span.
The Wildcats boast a gorgeous new stadium, but that won’t help them on the road at Ohio Stadium. However, what could help them is offensive coordinator Chip Kelly, who obviously helped lead the Buckeyes’ offense during the 2024 national title run. Northwestern will be well-coached, but they probably don’t quite have the talent to run with Ohio State.
Games against Illinois and Nebraska should also be penciled in as victories for the Buckeyes, but could provide some intrigue.
The Fighting Illini are on the upswing under head coach Bret Bielema, with 19 wins over the last two seasons marking their best two-year stretch in program history. That said, the 2026 squad returns just seven starters, and loses big names like quarterback Luke Altmeyer and defensive lineman Gabe Jacas. There is still a good amount of talent on Illinois, and Bielema is a great head coach, but there is an obvious gap here.
Road contests in Lincoln are always tough, and Matt Rhule has led Nebraska to back-to-back bowl games, but Dylan Raiola leaving for Oregon potentially changes the equation. Raiola’s replacement Anthony Colandrea is no slouch at quarterback, and the offensive line should be solid, but there are big questions on defense as well. If those questions are answered, this could be a tougher matchup than anticipated.
That brings us to the other three ranked matchups on the schedule: Iowa, USC and Oregon.
The Buckeyes will travel to Iowa City on Oct. 3 to take on the preseason No. 22 Hawkeyes. It will mark Ohio State’s first trip to Kinnick since the infamous 55-24 drubbing they took back in 2017. Day is a perfect 2-0 against Iowa, outscoring the Hawkeyes by a combined 89-17 in a pair of meetings in Columbus, but it will be his first time leading the team into one of the nation’s toughest places to play.
Ohio State then travels to Memorial Coliseum on Halloween, where they will face off against preseason No. 14 USC. Lincoln Riley’s group returns quarterback Jayden Maiava, who helped lead the Trojans’ offense to 35.8 points per game last season, but gone are top receivers Makai Lemon and Ja’Kobi Lane. The big question, though, is can Gary Patterson improve a USC defense that has been consistently awful under Riley.
Finally, preseason No. 2 Oregon comes to town on Nov. 7 in a potential de-facto play-in for the Big Ten Championship Game. A trendy national title pick, the Ducks return Dante Moore and a treasure trove of offensive skill talent, highlighted by receivers Dakorien Moore and Evan Stewart and running backs Jordon Davison and Dierre Hill. With a defense that returns eight starters, this could be one of the biggest games of the entire college football season.
Ohio State will likely be favored in at least nine of its regular season games, if not more. There is an obvious path to the Buckeyes surpassing their win total of 9.5, but there are clear roadblocks along the way.
The 2026 season will be a huge test for Day and his team, but if they can get through the gauntlet with two or fewer losses, they should have no issue making the College Football Playoff — and would be well-tested when they get there.
Other Notable Odds
– Ohio State odds to make the Big Ten Championship Game: -125
– Odds to win the Big Ten Championship Game:
- Ohio State: +180
- Oregon: +270
- Indiana: +300
- USC: +1300
- Michigan: +1600
- Penn State: +1800
– Ohio State odds to make the College Football Playoff National Championship Game: +290
– Odds to win the College Football Playoff National Championship Game:
- Ohio State: +550
- Notre Dame: +600
- Oregon: +750
- Georgia: +800
- Texas: +850
- Indiana: +900
– Ohio State odds to finish the regular season undefeated: +600
All odds courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook
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