Mountain West & Pac-12 Bowl Projections: 2026 Preseason Edition

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The time has come. The 2026 season is upon us. We are past the time of watch lists and preseason awards and have entered the time of bowl projections. Our team at Mountain West Connection will be releasing our bowl projections each week. This season, both Mountain West and Pac-12 projections will be included in the same post. Our first round of projections are below and will likely change as the season progresses. Leave your own thoughts in the comments.

Note that bowl tie-ins are extremely messy this year, more than usual. Due to that, it’s difficult to even have consistency with the ranking order of bowl games.

For Mountain West Bowls, we will designate the Potato Bowl as the MW Champion, although the champ could go to one of six different bowl games. But for simplicity sake, whoever you see in the Potato Bowl is who a writer thinks will be the Mountain West Champ, although we recognize that may not necessarily be the case when the time comes.

For Pac-12 teams, the legacy teams are still locked into the Pac-12 bowl tie-ins. The current champion will be in the Poinsettia Bowl, but after that, it’s a lot of unknown. We will also list the Sun Bowl, as that has traditionally be the last Pac-12 bowl to select and therefore most likely to have a new Pac team. Otherwise, back-up bowls will likely host many of the current Pac-12 teams. And if that wasn’t confusing enough, it’s possible that ESPN could put current Pac-12/old Mountain West teams in MW-affiliated bowls that ESPN owns. However, we won’t entertain that possibility, at least not to start.

Clear as mud? Good. For what it’s worth, we are providing a bowl tie-in key in this post. While it may not be completely accurate, it at least provides a picture of how we are arriving at some of our bowl projections. And as the picture becomes more clear, we will update our explanation key. If you find any info, feel free to let us know in the comments.

Bowl Affiliation Key

Potato Bowl: (Potential) Designated MW Champ

Hawaii Bowl: MW #2

Arizona Bowl: MW #3

New Mexico Bowl: MW #4

Guaranteed Rate Bowl: #1 MW backup

Cactus Bowl: Backup bowl

Poinsettia Bowl: Pac-12 champ

Sun Bowl: Last option for legacy Pac-12 teams

Puerto Rico Bowl: Backup bowl

First Responder Bowl: Backup bowl

Boca Raton Bowl: Backup bowl

College Football Playoff: Highest ranked G6 team

Mike

Potato Bowl: (Potential) Designated MW Champ

Hawaii Bowl: Hawaii

Arizona Bowl: Air Force

New Mexico Bowl: North Dakota State

Guaranteed Rate Bowl: New Mexico

Cactus Bowl: N/A

Poinsettia Bowl: Boise State

Sun Bowl: Washington State

Puerto Rico Bowl: Fresno State

First Responder Bowl: Texas State

Boca Raton Bowl: San Diego State

College Football Playoff: N/A

I’m going with five bowl teams in each conference. I see UNLV and New Mexico as the top two teams in the Mountain West, so I’m giving them the two best bowl games. Hawaii and Air Force will be firm bowl teams this season. Also, I have NDSU squarely in the bowl picture in their first FBS season. For the Pac-12, I think Boise State starts the year in the driver’s seat. Then, the Bulldogs, Cougars, Bobcats, and Aztecs will all be bowl teams in some order. I picked Washington State for a Pac-12 legacy bowl tie-in since they were in the previous version of the conference. Wyoming and Utah State start the year as the first teams looking to jump the ones I listed here.

Zach

Potato Bowl: UNLV

Hawaii Bowl: Hawaii

Arizona Bowl: North Dakota State

New Mexico Bowl: Air Force

Guaranteed Rate Bowl: New Mexico

Cactus Bowl: Wyoming

Poinsettia Bowl: San Diego State

Sun Bowl: Washington State

Puerto Rico Bowl: Fresno State

First Responder Bowl: Utah State

Boca Raton Bowl: Texas State

College Football Playoff: Boise State

I have six teams from each conference going bowling. It feels like there will be a lot of teams that narrowly reach bowl eligibility and that is reflected in this projection. It is a risky pick, but I have Boise State in the CFP and UNLV taking the top spot in the Mountain West.

Jeff

Potato Bowl: New Mexico

Hawaii Bowl: UNLV

Arizona Bowl: Hawaii

New Mexico Bowl: San Jose State

Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Air Force

Cactus Bowl: North Dakota State

Poinsettia Bowl: San Diego State

Sun Bowl: Washington State

Puerto Rico Bowl: Fresno State

First Responder Bowl: Texas State

Boca Raton Bowl: Utah State

College Football Playoff: Boise State

I have six teams from each conference making bowl games. Those specific positions will be decided at the end of the season. Boise State and SDSU will meet on conference championship with Boise winning and getting the CFP bid. New Mexico beats UNLV in the MWC championship but will be passed over in favor of Boise State in the CFB. Hawaii will have a breakout season and SJSU will recover to find strong offenses and defenses.

Chase

Potato Bowl: UNLV

Hawaii Bowl: Hawaii

Arizona Bowl: Air Force

New Mexico Bowl: North Dakota State

Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Nevada

Cactus Bowl: N/A

Poinsettia Bowl: San Diego State

Sun Bowl: Washington State

Puerto Rico Bowl: Boise State

First Responder Bowl: Fresno State

Boca Raton Bowl: Utah State

College Football Playoff: New Mexico

I have six Mountain West teams and five Pac-12 teams. Honestly, due to how close every team is in the latter, I foresee some classic Pac-12 cannibalization preventing even this number, but I think it’s even more likely that it will merely prevent an entry into the CFP, specifically for Boise State and SDSU. That will leave the door open for New Mexico, who I think will rise to the top of the G6, given their high level of returning production and incredible coaching staff. Jason Eck definitely could have left in the offseason if he wanted to, him staying is a clear indicator that he believes he can build something truly special in Albuquerque. I also believe the Lobos will benefit from the chaos across the rest of the G6 conferences, with most of the typical contenders breaking in new head coaches (Tulane, JMU, USF, etc.)

Dan

Potato Bowl: UNLV

Hawaii Bowl: New Mexico

Arizona Bowl: Hawaii

New Mexico Bowl: North Dakota State

Guaranteed Rate Bowl: San Jose State

Cactus Bowl: Air Force

Poinsettia Bowl: Boise State

Sun Bowl: Washington State

Puerto Rico Bowl: San Diego State

First Responder Bowl: Fresno State

Boca Raton Bowl: Texas State

College Football Playoff: UNLV

Six and six for me. (more the merrier!) I think both conferences will catch people by surprise this season. For my CFP pick, I took the Rebs. If they can get handle Memphis and a road trip to Hawaii in the first two weeks, there is no reason they can’t run the table and earn a way into the dance. After all, the national title game is in Las Vegas this year……..

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