NC State vs Virginia Prediction: Odds, expert picks, team and player news, betting trends, and stats

Virginia and NC State meet for the one the most thrilling matchups in Week 0! This game was supposed to be played in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, but was rescheduled to Charlottesville, Virginia — becoming an extra home game for the Cavaliers. The Cavaliers have lost three-straight at home to the Wolfpack, including last season's 35-31 result.

NC State brings back key contributors on offense like quarterback CJ Bailey who cruised over 3,000 total yards and 30 touchdowns as a sophomore. The Wolfpack finished the season with two-straight wins over Florida State and North Carolina to become bowl eligible, which led to a Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl Win over Memphis for an 8-5 season.

Virginia made the ACC Title game before losing to Duke in OT, 27-20 last season. The Cavaliers replace a lot of key players from that team, including their start quarterback and running back duo. Virginia's season ended with 13-7 slugfest win over Missouri in the Taxslayer Gator Bowl. Virginia enters this season picked sixth in the ACC Preseason Poll, while NC State is seventh.

Let’s dive into the schools on both sides of the ball, look at a few key players, and see where the numbers take us.

Game Details and How to Watch NC State vs Virginia:

• Date: Saturday, August 29, 2026
• Time: 3:30PM Eastern
• Site: Scott Stadium
• City: Charlottesville, VA
• TV/Streaming: ESPN

Game Odds for NC State vs Virginia

The latest odds as of Wednesday courtesy of DraftKings:

• Moneyline: NC State (+180), Virginia (-218)
• Spread: Virginia -5.5 (-115)
• Total: 53.5 points

Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!

NC State Wolfpack

Head Coach: Dave Doeren
2025 Record: 8-5
2025 Offensive Points Per Game: 30.2 (T-44th)
2025 Defensive Points Per Game:
2025 Strength of Schedule: 34th
2026 Strength of Schedule: 66th

The NC State Wolfpack Offense

NC State scored at least 30 points in eight out of 13 games last season and can see an improvement this year. The Wolfpack are expected to have of their best offensive lines in a few seasons and have Jayden Scott back at running back (585 rush yards, 4 TDs) alongside quarterback CJ Bailey (31 TDs, 3,320 yards). Both are ready for breakout seasons as juniors and senior transfer Victor Snow (Buffalo, Nevada) will make an impact after 19 total touchdowns on 151 touches ranging from receptions, rushes, kickoff, and punt returns.

NC State Player to Watch on Offense: QB CJ Bailey

CJ Bailey opened 2025 with eight total touchdowns to one interception and closed the year with had seven total touchdowns and no interceptions over his last three games. At home, he was absolutely dominant with 21 total touchdowns (16 pass, 5 rush) to one interception, but on the road, he threw nine touchdowns with eight interceptions and one rushing score. NC State had one of the tougher road schedules in the ACC last year, which won't be the case this year. NC State's toughest road game might be this one at Virginia.

The NC State Wolfpack Defense

This year, NC State will have to replace eight of their top 12 tacklers from a year ago. The Wolfpack allowed six different teams to score at least 30 points on them last season, including five of eight in conference. NC State landed transfers from Miami, Penn State, and Tulane that will start right away.

NC State Player to Watch on Defense: LB Harvey Dyson III

Harvey Dyson III transferred to NC State after starting his career with Texas Tech then transferring to Tulane. With the Green Wave last year, Dyson registered 36 tackles, 8.0 sacks, and forced two fumbles after 17 tackles, 2.5 sacks, and one forced fumble in three years with the Red Raiders. Dyson will immediately be a leader on this renovated Wolfpack defense that replaces most of its linebackers.

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Virginia Cavaliers

Head Coach: Tony Elliott
2025 Record: 11-3 (7-1)
2025 Offensive Points Per Game: 30.8 (38th)
2025 Defensive Points Per Game: 19.5 (22nd)
2025 Strength of Schedule: 76th
2026 Strength of Schedule: 65th

The Virginia Cavaliers Offense

Last season, Virginia had J'Mari Taylor (1,062 yards, 15 TDs) at running back and Chandler Morris (3,245 yards, 21 TDs) at quarterback, which became one of the most underrated duos in the country. Both players have moved on and Virginia will look totally different. The Cavaliers have two quarterbacks this year, Beau Pribula (Missouri, Penn State) the starter and Eli Holstein (Pitt) the backup, plus a solid offensive line with 165 career starts. Who will be the playmakers on offense will be the question. The Cavaliers added four receivers with 250-plus yards and a slew of running backs that will have a tough time repeating what Taylor did last season.

Virginia Player To Watch on Offense: QB, Beau Pribula

Over three seasons, Beau Pribula was with Penn State as backup for two, then Missouri as a starter last season. Pribula tossed 11 touchdowns to 9 interceptions with 1,941 passing yards and 297 rushing yards (six rushing TDs). Pribula had a rushing touchdown in five different games last season and had multi-touchdown efforts in four games. In his final four games with Missouri, Pribula tallied two rushing touchdowns, zero passing scores, and four interceptions on 57.7 completion percentage.

The Virginia Cavaliers Defense

Virginia added seven transfers in the secondary and have a sneaky good front seven led by Kam Robinson at linebacker. The Cavaliers allowed 19.5 points per game last year. Virginia held 10 opponents to 20 or fewer points last season and three teams to seven points. In 2024, Virginia ranked 92nd with 30.2 points per game allowed and eight teams scored at least 27 on the Cavaliers. They made major strides on that side of the ball last year, so taking a small step back wouldn't be surprising.

Virginia Player to Watch on Defense: LB Kam Robinson

Kam Robinson was limited to seven games last season and still registered 64 tackles (43 assisted, 21 solo). Robinson has 199 tackles in three seasons and set a career-high with two interceptions and two touchdowns. Robinson racked up two sacks last year too, after five the year prior. If Robinson is healthy, he will cruise past 100 tackles and likely have at least five combined sacks, forced fumbles, and interceptions.

NC State and Virginia Team Stats, Betting Trends

· NC State went 7-6 ATS last season

· Virginia went 9-5 ATS last season

· NC State went 7-6 to the Over last season

· Virginia went 9-4-1 to the Under last season, ranking ninth-best nationally

· NC State went 1-4 ATS as the road team last season

· NC State went an NCAA-worst 0-4 ATS as a road underdog last season

· Virginia went 5-2 ATS at home last season and were 4-2 ATS as a home favorite

· NC State went 3-2 to the Over as the road team and 2-2 as a road underdog

· Virginia went 3-3-1 on the total at home last season and 3-2-1 to the Under as a home favorite

Rotoworld Best Bets

Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports) likes NC State to cover the +5.5 at Virginia:

"This game was moved from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil to Charlottesville, Virginia over the summer and because of that, the spread of this game moved from -3.5 to -5.5. Despite the two-point line movement because of home field advantage, I think there is more value on NC State than meets the eye.

NC State went 0-4 ATS as a road underdog last year, ranking worst in the country. The Wolfpack lost to Miami (41-7), Notre Dame (36-7), Pitt (53-34), and Duke (45-33) as a road underdog, which were all quality teams. That impacts the spread or public opinion on this team, but NC State showed improvement when CJ Bailey was on the field. Bailey had seven total touchdowns and no interceptions over his last three games and opened 2025 with eight touchdowns to one interception. He's streaky, but Virginia coming off an ACC title loss and dealing with a lot of turnover this offseason makes NC State +5.5 a play for me."

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