OTB Staff Predicts Rutgers 2026 Football Record

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The kickoff to the Rutgers football season is just under a week away, meaning that it is time for the staff here at OnTheBanks to lock in our final record predictions before the season starts. We have already previewed the offense, defense and special teams; now it is time to predict how they will stack up against the 2026 slate of opponents.

Andrew Rice

Rutgers’ defense will be much better this season as an overall unit. They seemingly have a much more capable coordinator than they did last year. They will be returning key players from injury, such as defensive tackle Doug Blue-Eli and linebacker Moses Walker. On top of all of those things, it will just be extremely hard to replicate how bad they were overall last year.

Rutgers’ offense was able to keep much of its eligible star power around, as star wide receiver KJ Duff, running back Antwan Raymond, and offensive lineman Kwabena Asamoah all decided to return. The offensive line looks deeper than it has and has seemingly found a violent spark from new coach Jim Turner. The tight ends still leave a bit to be desired, and the wide receivers behind Duff are somewhat unproven, but there is optimism in new players in both departments. So that brings us to quarterback. Lonergan had a rough go of it last year at Boston College. That whole team did. He still put up decent numbers on paper, throwing for 2025 yards, 12 touchdowns and five interceptions while completing 66.9% of his pass attempts. So that begs the question: was it Lonergan himself? Or was it the whole team he was on? I’m going to lean toward the latter. He did come here and win his starting job after all, proving he is at least the best of the two options available. The offense might dip compared to last year, but I don’t see it completely dropping off. The improvements on defense will likely be much bigger than any dropoff on offense.

The schedule is also a tad more favorable, as Rutgers has replaced opponents such as Iowa, Minnesota and Washington, who went 9-4, 8-5 and 9-4, last year, with opponents like Nebraska, Northwestern and Wisconsin, who went 7-6, 7-6 and 4-8 last year.

With all of these factors combined, Rutgers makes it back to a bowl game- but just barely.

Record prediction: 6-6

Greg Patuto

Rutgers Football has a starting quarterback. Transfer Dylan Lonergan takes over the job and will work with KJ Duff and Antwan Raymond. The AJ Surace debate is one for another day but it does not bode well for Greg Schiano claiming this is a developmental program. Anyway, the offense should score some points, but that is not the issue. Rutgers had one of the worst defenses we’ve ever seen last year. It should be somewhat better this year with Travis Johansen leading the way. Not to say that it will suddenly turn into Miami of last year, but the defense should be improved with key players returning.

The schedule is a bit easier than last year but the Big Ten is the Big Ten. For Rutgers, the goal is six wins and a bowl game. That still seems challenging.

There are two wins on the schedule — UMass and Howard. Rutgers goes to Boston College in Week 2 and while that is not one we can pencil in yet, it is favoring Rutgers so there is three right there. As for losses, we have USC, Indiana, Michigan, and Penn State. Why are they losses? Because Rutgers has not beaten a ranked opponent in nearly two decades.

This leaves swing games for Rutgers against Maryland, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Nebraska, and Michigan State. I am putting Wisconsin and Nebraska in the loss column, leaving three must-win games to get into a bowl game. Take your pick, Rutgers gets two of them.

Record prediction: 5-7

Ryan Castellano

After losing arguably their best quarterback of the past decade in Athan Kaliakmanis, Greg Schiano played his classic games by splitting some of the fanbase in favor of transfer Dylan Lonergan and last year’s backup AJ Surace. Lonergan got the job ten days before kickoff. The quarterback position isn’t the problem here yet, though knowing Rutgers, Sean Ashenfelder will probably see action this year, and it won’t be during a blowout win. The problem is who isn’t around him. Ian Strong transferred to Cal after tying for fourth nationally in contested catches, which leaves KJ Duff as the only receiver on the roster who has proven to win a 50-50 ball. Four of Rutgers’ opponents finished last season inside the national top 18 in total defense, and every one of them will know exactly where to put the safety.

Speaking of safeties, Rutgers’ defense should improve greatly under Travis Johansen. Though, it won’t matter much, because a better defense doesn’t put points on the board, unless of course Rutgers magically leads the nation in pick sixes. Special teams is the one place Rutgers still wins. Jai Patel owns the program record for career field goal percentage at 78.2, Jakob Anderson averaged 44.2 yards per punt, and blocked kicks have been a Schiano signature across both stints. That’s how a team like this steals a game and flips the script.

I really have selective faith in Rutgers’ record, as I believe that the record won’t be indicative of the performance on the field. Rutgers gets an easy three non-conference wins against UMass, Boston College, and Howard. They’ll come into Thanksgiving weekend at 5-6 with a bowl on the line, and it’ll end the way last November ended, this time with no conference home wins. Schiano has never had fewer than six losses since coming back. This would be the seventh in a row, and I don’t think he sticks around for the eighth.

Record prediction: 5-7

Arnav Sarkar

With the season less than a week away and the program having announced Dylan Lonergan as their starting quarterback, I can feel relatively confident in making my final record prediction. The offense returns two of their biggest production points in KJ Duff and Antwan Raymond, both of whom should be All-Big Ten by the end of the season and headed to the NFL Draft with a much higher pick than most Rutgers players.

Defense is the big wild-card, as Travis Johansen and his new staff will work with a new scheme and new players at almost every position. However, it would be hard to think that the defense could be any worse than last year’s historically poor output that gave up more yards per play than any other Big Ten defense this century. Even if the defense is marginally better, let alone significantly, this team should be much improved.

The schedule is the ultimate factor, and like the other writers mentioned, Rutgers should have no problem defeating UMass and Howard, as well as get a victory over a underwhelming Boston College team on the road to continue their nonconference streak. The issue has always been in conference play, and assuming USC, Indiana, Penn State, and Michigan end up as ranked losses, this puts a realistic ceiling on the program of eight wins.

However, someone has to be optimistic here, and I’m not doing it blindly. With Rutgers replacing the likes of Iowa, Minnesota, and Washington with Nebraska, Wisconsin, and Northwestern, the “swing three” for 2026 are much more gettable. I will also make the assumption that the Knights continue their recent dominance against Maryland and Michigan State, which is more of a referendum on those programs than the state of Rutgers.

All in all, that gives Rutgers five wins and three more that seem to be truly in contest. I will go out on a limb and say that Greg Schiano finds a way to steal a couple of those, one over a Wisconsin team that is not better than Rutgers in anything except for its reputation, and the other over a Wildcats team that Rutgers has beaten at home and on the road, or their first-ever win over an average-looking Cornhuskers team at home. Give me a seven-win season, and the only reason I am not predicting eight is that this is Rutgers football and they will give one away.

Record Prediction: 7-5

Bob Cancro

Hope springs eternal….

I’ve been surprised and I’ve been disappointed over the course of the last 156 years that I’ve been watching Rutgers. For me, this year the surprise would be bowl eligibility. The disappointment would be less than five wins….which might just create another surprise. To be continued.

The defense has to be better….the bar is low after last season, but I think Travis Johansen’s fresh approach – and having had the time to install the D, with a lot of his guys – should change the trajectory on that side of the ball.

I think this is going to be a run first, run heavy offense (really needed a crystal ball there, right?) Despite Duff being available, Raymond and the RBs are going to do a lot of the work. I don’t think installing Lonergan as QB1 is a problem, other than him getting perhaps fewer reps in camp than he might have if he was there from the jump. Is he the answer? GS and Ciarrocca think so…for now. Certainly against UMass Surace will get a lot of action but I think that tails off until Howard…unless Lonergan falters.

How do they get to my “surprise” bowl eligibility? All three non-con plus Maryland, Michigan State, and….Northwestern. Could they take Wisconsin or Nebraska? I think yes, which would offset a clunker at BC or elsewhere. Likely? I got nothin’, but I’m not placing any bets there.

The disappointment would be a loss to BC – putting a serious crimp for more success and creating a lot of (more?) doubt about the arc of the program. A loss to Northwestern would also be a major set back. Sure, they’re opening a new stadium, creating excitement and the game is there. But, we need to beat them.

Cross your fingers! I am.

Record Prediction: 6-6

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