MMQB: Season Record Predictions
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At long last, it’s game week! Kicking off the final week of off-season content, the BSD Masthead gave their thoughts on how they see the Lions’ first season under Matt Campbell shaking out. Let’s see what they have to say!
Chris: 8-4
The Lions start out 3-0 in the non-conference, breaking in the new players and staff with solid-if-unspectacular wins over Marshall, Temple (away game!), and Buffalo.
Wisconsin and at Northwestern (on a Friday night!) offer doable Big Ten games to kick off the conference slate, and the Lions get to 5-0.
The home game vs USC is where things take a turn, and a loss in a White Out is on the books. Next up the team heads to Michigan and drops two in a row to get to 5-2 before the midseason bye.
A win vs Purdue gets the team to bowl eligibility, but a cross-country trip to Washington is a loss, and the team is still feeling it a week later in a loss against Minnesota to get to 6-4.
The team settles down in the last two weeks of the season, and collects wins against Big Ten Powerhouse Rutgers and Maryland, and finishes the opening year under Matt Campbell at 8-4. A solid first year with a good bowl game, and building toward the future.
Lando: 9-3
Penn State begins the year with three relatively easy wins in the non-conference over Marshall, Temple (don’t remind me of the last time they played the Owls on the road), and Buffalo. The good guys also get by Wisconsin to open Big Ten play to close out September at 4-0.
Northwestern on a Friday night in their new stadium is actually a better situation for me than a sleepy 11 AM local time start on Saturday afternoon, so the squad does enough there as well. After that victory, the Nittany Lions head into two of their toughest matchups, facing USC in what should be the Whiteout game, before traveling to Michigan. Best case scenario, I think they split these two games-getting just enough at home to get by the Trojans, but falling to the Wolverines on the road. I’ll call it two losses just for the Pessimistic Lando brand. After a bye week, Purdue provides a respite from the difficulty spike, and the team closes out October with a 6-2 record.
November begins their toughest road environment (if not their toughest road opponent), and the Huskies take down Penn State to start the month. The Blue and White squeak by Minnesota in an offensive performance reminiscent of 1997, and take out Rutgers and Maryland to end the regular season at 9-3.
Bennett: 9-3
This is the least I’ve “believed” in a Penn State team since 2016 – and we know how that year turned out, so here’s hoping that I’m very wrong.
A lot has been made of the schedule and how it favors a good first year for Matt Campbell in Happy Valley. For years, I’ve always looked closely at the schedule and it’s helped me with my projection. So, sure, there’s the good news: Penn State misses the league’s projected “Big Three” (Indiana, Ohio State, and Oregon). But I think there’s a little more meat than people are realizing with road trips to Michigan and Washington, along with the big home game of the year against USC. All three of those teams seem to be in the mix for what people most want for Penn State: a top tier finish in the Big Ten and a shot at sliding into a playoff spot. Realistically, I think the Lions have to find a way to win two of those games against those teams to make the playoff. I don’t think they’ll do it.
Oh, yes, I also have to mention that I can’t shake the feeling that this is the least talented Penn State roster in a decade. I know the belief is that Campbell can do more with less based on his Iowa State experiences. With that in mind, I do think the Lions find a way to knock off one of those I mentioned in the last paragraph. Still, my preseason burning questions are as follows: can the offense be explosive? Can the wide receiver play be consistent – or even existent after the past couple years? Can Becht stay healthy? Can the offensive line be a strength? Can the linebackers stay healthy? Can anyone on the edge get to the quarterback?
That’s too many questions for me seeing Penn State really being in the playoff discussion. I think I’m even being optimistic in saying it’s a 9-3 season with an upset of one of USC/Washington/Michigan, but also a loss to a Minnesota or Northwestern sprinkled in.
Colin: 9-3
There are too many question marks on both sides of the ball for me to predict any higher than 9-3. The schedule is favorable, but USC, Michigan, and Washington all have equal or better talent. I need to see evidence that the defense is deeper and more cohesive than last year. The passing game needs to show it can convert on third and long and stretch the field vertically against good defenses. The talent is certainly there to win more than 9 games, but expecting everything to click immediately and for Penn State to repeat what Indiana was able to do in 2024 and 2025 is a bit pie in the sky. I think they get just enough from the White Out to beat USC, but there will be a head-scratching loss that offsets that win on their CFP resume, as well as road losses to Michigan and Washington. I will be pleasantly surprised with a 10-2/11-1 year, but after last year, I am going into the season with lower expectations.
Tim: 10-2
Unlike this time a year ago, the range of record projections I’m seeing across the Penn State mediasphere have ranged between 8-4 and 11-1. I think anything between those records is possible, and I totally understand where those who are on the 8-9 win end of the spectrum are coming from. That being said, I think PSU is flying a little under the radar and fans and detractors alike could be in for a surprise this season when a combination of Iowa State’s best players blended with PSU’s best returnees pulls off a big-time win or two. Perhaps I’ve just read or watched one too many stories on how much more accountability and cohesiveness the team has displayed this offseason, but I think despite not being as talented on paper as recent PSU squads, it’s the intangibles that are going to make the difference and allow this PSU team to find itself in the thick of the College Football Playoff hunt come November.
This isn’t to say it will be easy, as there are some land mines on the schedule other just the big three (USC, Michigan, Washington). We don’t know how improved Wisconsin will be, Northwestern opening their new stadium on a Friday night will make for an electric road atmosphere, and playing Minnesota the week after a cross-country trip to Seattle has all the makings of a mid-November trap game. I think the bonds, trust, and chemistry that has been gradually built ever since Matt Campbell and his staff came to Happy Valley last December will pay dividends down the road when the Nittany Lions inevitably find themselves in adverse situations such as trailing by double-digits in the second half, or clinging to a late lead and needing just a couple of first downs to run out the clock, they will find a way to push through and ultimately prevail. Give me the good guys to go 10-2, with their signature win being over USC in the White Out..
You’ve seen what the writers think, but what about you? How do you see the season playing out?
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