Does the next Indiana exist? 6 dark horse College Football Playoff contenders that could surprise in 2026
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Does the next Indiana exist? 6 dark horse College Football Playoff contenders that could surprise in 2026 originally appeared on The Sporting News.
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The long, nightmare wait is over. The 2026 college football season is here.
Entering last season, Indiana was quite literally college football's biggest loser. Now, we sit eight months removed from its improbable national title.
In just two short seasons, Hoosiers head coach Curt Cignetti took Indiana to the mountaintop. While there likely will never be another season like the dream one Fernando Mendoza and Indiana had in 2025, let's take a look at which College Football Playoff dark horses are entering the 2026 season.
No, we aren't guaranteeing that each team on this list will make the CFP. But each team's head coach, paired with its roster outlook, could create a turnaround similar to what Indiana had in recent years.
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UCLA Bruins
UCLA has been somewhat of a revolving door of head coaches who never could figure out how to win big in recent years. The last coach to lead the Bruins to a double-digit-win season was Jim Mora, who did so in 2013 and 2014. The Bruins haven't played for a Big Ten title since 2012 and have claimed just one national title, in 1954.
Chip Kelly finished 35-34 across six seasons, and Bruins alum Deshaun Foster went 5-10 with an 0-3 start last season before his firing. But the Bruins have a proven winner in head coach Bob Chesney, who comes to Los Angeles from James Madison.
He led the Dukes to a historic CFP berth just last season and has a 132-52 overall record as a head coach. At Division I Holy Cross from 2018-2023, he led the Crusaders to four consecutive playoff berths from 2019-2022, including a quarterfinal appearance in 2022.
His transfer portal class ranked 25th nationally, per 247Sports, including big names like former Dukes EDGE rusher Sahir West, Oklahoma linebacker Sammy Omosigho and Florida receiver Aidan Mizell. With former five-star quarterback recruit Nico Iamaleava already installed under center, the Bruins could make some noise in a crowded Big Ten this year.
Game to watch: At Oregon, Oct. 10
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Louisville Cardinals
Louisville fourth-year head coach Jeff Brohm has had the Cardinals on the cusp of being a legitimate ACC threat in recent years. The Cardinals were the first team to upset Miami during the regular season last year, earning an impressive 24-21 win on the road. But three straight November losses to Cal, Clemson and SMU killed their momentum.
In 2024, the Cardinals upset then-No. 11 Clemson 33-21 but lost to unranked Stanford the following week. Louisville finished the season 9-4 with a win over Washington in the Sun Bowl.
In his first season at Louisville in 2023, Brohm led the Cardinals to their first-ever ACC Championship Game. But Louisville lost 16-6 to a Florida State squad without its star quarterback, Jordan Travis.
In 2026, Brohm appears ready for a breakthrough. He brought in former four-star quarterback Lincoln Kienholz, who spent the last two seasons as an Ohio State backup. Also returning for the Cards are all three of their leading running backs from last season: Isaac Brown, Keyjuan Brown and Braxton Jennings. On defense, linebackers T.J. Capers and Clev Lubin return after combining for 107 tackles, with Lubin recording 8.5 sacks last year.
Game to watch: Vs. Ole Miss in Nashville, Sept. 5
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Virginia Tech Hokies
The college football world was shocked when the Nittany Lions moved on from James Franklin last season. He was Penn State's second-winningest head coach behind Joe Paterno, after all. But at Virginia Tech, Franklin gets a chance to rebuild his coaching image while starting over at a program that hasn't really done much on the national stage since Frank Beamer retired in 2015.
At Penn State, Franklin had three double-digit-win seasons from 2022-2023, and if Drew Allar hadn't thrown a late-game interception against Notre Dame, the Nittany Lions could have played for a national championship two years ago.
In all, Franklin is 128-60 overall as a head coach, with six double-digit-win seasons, three New Year's Six Bowl wins and another three appearances. Virginia Tech, meanwhile, has seen just five BCS Bowl berths with two victories. Those wins came over Texas in the 1995 Sugar Bowl and Cincinnati in the 2009 Orange Bowl.
The Hokies bring in Franklin's former quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer, as well as Tech's leading rusher in Marcellous Hawkins and leading wideout Ayden Greene. VT also brought in receiver Que'Sean Brown, who was Duke's leading receiver last season.
On defense, Franklin smartly retained former VT head coach Brent Pry, who also returns leading tackler Kaleb Spencer.
Game to watch: Vs. Georgia Tech on Oct. 17
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Houston Cougars
Willie Fritz was one of the hottest names in the college football coaching carousel two years ago after going 54-47 at Tulane. His best season with the Green Wave came in 2022, when he led Tulane to an AAC Championship capped off with an upset win over Caleb Williams and USC in the Cotton Bowl.
Following a 4-8 finish during Fritz's first season, Houston finished 10-3 last season, as losses to Texas Tech, West Virginia and TCU kept the Cougars out of the Big 12 hunt. But with Texas Tech no longer having star quarterback Brendan Sorsby, that opens the door for Houston to make some noise in the Big 12.
The Cougars return quarterback Conner Weigman, who is quite talented. Coming over from Texas A&M last season, he had a breakout year, throwing for 2,705 yards with 25 touchdowns and nine interceptions. He was also second on the team in rushing, getting 700 yards on the ground with 11 scores. Houston returns running back DJ Butler from last season but also brought in star Tulane running back Makhi Hughes, who played for Fritz in New Orleans.
The Cougars also bring back six starters on defense, including last year's sack leader, Brandon Mack.
Game to watch: At Texas Tech, Sept. 18
South Carolina
Shane Beamer will be coaching to keep his job in 2026, thanks to a 30-33 overall record and a 4-8 finish last season. But Coach Beamer did a great job addressing several big needs this offseason, both with the coaching staff and on the roster.
The biggest offseason hire Beamer made was bringing in Kendal Briles from TCU, who also brought with him new offensive line coach Randy Clements. Briles has an impressive track record as a play-caller with the Horned Frogs, where he helped mold quarterback Josh Hoover into Indiana's new starting signal-caller.
That's great news for returning star quarterback LaNorris Sellers, who gets his leading receiver Nyck Harbor back after last season. Across two seasons, Sellers has thrown for 5,057 yards with 33 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. His best season running the football came in 2024, when he finished with 674 yards and seven touchdowns.
The expectations are big for Sellers, who will be playing behind a much-improved offensive line. The biggest addition is offensive tackle Jacarrius Peak, who gave up just seven sacks across his three seasons at NC State.
The Gamecocks also added offensive line transfers Carter Miller from UCF and Emmanuel Poku from East Carolina.
On defense, star EDGE rusher Dylan Stewart, who has 11 sacks across his last two seasons, will lead a unit that has a relatively young secondary. South Carolina does have a tough schedule, as the Gamecocks have to play Alabama, Florida, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Georgia this season.
But following Beamer's only other losing season in Columbia in 2023, South Carolina finished 9-4 and was in the CFP conversation at the end of the season.
Game to watch: At Alabama, Sept. 26
Florida Gators
Florida's schedule is tough, featuring road games against Auburn and Texas, as well as SEC opponents Ole Miss, Georgia and Oklahoma. But Jon Sumrall's head coaching career has produced three double-digit-win seasons, with his "worst" finish coming during his 9-5 season at Tulane in 2024.
His hire of offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner from Georgia Tech was one of the buzziest of the offseason, and the Gators will start former Yellow Jackets quarterback Aaron Philo in Week 1. Retaining star running back Jaden Baugh through the coaching change was also huge for the Gators.
Florida also returns just two starters along the offensive line this season. But an eight- or nine-win season would be a massive improvement in Gainesville.
Unlike previous hires such as Billy Napier and Jim McElwain, Sumrall appears to be both a culture fit and someone who gives a damn about wins and losses. It's a breath of fresh air for Florida fans who have endured constant mediocrity since Urban Meyer left in 2010.
Game to watch: Sept. 26 vs. Ole Miss
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