Game No. 1: Michigan State vs. Toledo Score Prediction

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Friday night is not always reserved for high school football. This year, the Spartans will kick off their season under the lights when they take on the Toledo Rockets this Friday night.

Yesterday, I predicted the spread and the over/under. Now, I’m going to get a little more in-depth and give you my exact prediction for how this game will play out.

Every week, I’ll try to correctly predict the exact score, winner, spread, over/under and any player props worth considering. Today, we’re focusing on the exact score prediction for Michigan State’s season opener.

Recapping Michigan State’s Offseason

The Spartans are entering the season with a brand-new head coach in Pat Fitzgerald, who spent 17 seasons at Northwestern. During his time with the Wildcats, Fitzgerald led the program to 10 bowl games and two Big Ten Championship Game appearances.

Now, Fitzgerald and his staff are tasked with leading Michigan State into a season where expectations are about as low as a limbo bar.

After going 1-8 in Big Ten play last season, Michigan State made sweeping changes to its coaching staff and saw almost half of the players who were expected to return depart the program.

As a result, the Spartans enter 2026 looking more like a Frankenstein's monster than a traditional college football roster — pieced together from different programs and brought together in hopes of creating something that works.

That includes offensive linemen Ben Murawski and Trent Fraley, who will be counted on to help guide the Spartans' offense throughout the season.

Michigan State also added running back Cam Edwards, who is looking to prove he can be one of the best running backs in all of college football. His arrival has already led many Spartan fans to draw comparisons to Kenneth Walker III, who transferred to Michigan State and exploded onto the scene.

However, the most important returning piece to the Spartan puzzle is quarterback Alessio Milivojevic.

Milivojevic became Michigan State's starter for the final four games of last season, and he helped keep the Spartans far more competitive than they had been for much of the year. He also capped the season with a victory over Maryland.

Now, Milivojevic enters his second season with the program as the unquestioned QB1.

According to PFF, Milivojevic received the second-highest pressure grade among incoming Big Ten quarterbacks. If Michigan State is going to surprise some people this season, his performance will likely play a major role.

Keeping Tabs on Toledo

Toledo isn't walking into East Lansing as some pushover opponent.

The Rockets are one of the best teams in the MAC and are actually favored to win the conference this season. Fitzgerald understands exactly what kind of challenge his team is facing in Week 1.

"We are playing a perennial MAC Championship program. They know how to win, they brought in the No. 1 transfer portal class in the MAC. This is a storied program, as you look at their talent. It's a hard matchup in week one."

The Spartans are preparing for a dogfight, and they should be.

We've seen countless upsets happen during Week 1 over the years, from FCS programs knocking off FBS opponents to MAC teams taking down Big Ten schools. Michigan State cannot afford to overlook Toledo simply because of the conference each team plays in.

Fitzgerald is preparing his team for a war within the war, and that mentality could be exactly what Michigan State needs.

The passion and energy that have been evident throughout Spartans practices this offseason are about to be put to the test. Friday night will be the first real opportunity to see whether Fitzgerald has been able to change the culture surrounding this program.

Michigan State vs. Toledo Prediction

Yes, Toledo is a very good football team.

And yes, Michigan State is widely viewed as one of the worst teams in the Big Ten entering the season.

That's already reflected in the betting market. The spread has moved from Michigan State -10.5 to -9.5, suggesting bettors have been willing to take Toledo and the points.

A lot of outside eyes are looking at Michigan State, seeing a team that struggled mightily last season, and immediately jumping on Toledo because the Rockets are viewed as one of the top teams in the MAC.

I don't think that's the call.

As I mentioned in my spread prediction, I already have Michigan State winning by 11 or more points.

I also predicted in my bold predictions article that both Milivojevic and Edwards would find the end zone twice.

Now it's time to put all of those predictions together.

My final score prediction for Week 1 is:

Michigan State 31, Toledo 17

I expect Toledo to make things interesting early, but I believe Michigan State's talent, home-field advantage and the energy surrounding Fitzgerald's first game will ultimately be enough to pull away.

The Spartans start the Pat Fitzgerald era with a statement win.

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