BON Roundtable: What do we expect from Texas in 2026?
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The long offseason is finally over, and the No. 5 Texas Longhorns are ready to kick off the 2026 campaign with high hopes.
Unlike last year, this season starts with a bit of an easier ask — opening the season against the Texas State Bobcats before hosting the No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes. It seems to be an all-in year for Texas, with a big investment in filling last year’s roster gaps via the transfer portal and quarterback Arch Manning seemingly singing his swan song in Burnt Orange.
Let’s start with some preseason expectations. We just saw Indiana go from a non-entity to an undefeated champion in just two seasons under Curt Cignetti. It’s year six for Steve Sarkisian with a loaded roster. What is a fair expectation for Texas in 2026?
Daniel Seahorn (@DanielSeahorn) — Fair expectations, with the way the roster is constructed, are 10-11 wins and honest to God deep playoff run. The defense is deep, Arch is in year two, and the weapons are probably as good as they will be during his time in Austin, and the offensive line has been fortified and will be improved (they certainly can be worse at some spots one would think). It’s time to put up or shut up. Expectations are high this year for a good reason.
Jacob Neidg (@jneidig_2) — Fair expectations may be out the window this year. The composition of this roster, combined with Sark’s experience, has created a win-it-or-all-bust situation for a lot of fans. I think this team could realistically lose up to two regular season games, which would be disregarded if a deep playoff run occurs. On the other hand, if Texas escapes the regular season unscathed and is upset early in the CFP, I think many would be disappointed.
Wescott Eberts (@SBN_Wescott) — Last year, Texas could point to an inexperienced quarterback and a young team overall when pointing out the flaws that kept the Longhorns out of the playoff. This year, there are no excuses – the returning talent is more experienced, Sarkisian went out and acquired the best portal players money can buy, and supplemented it all with a good recruiting class that will have some important contributors. It’s national championship or bust for the Horns in a legacy-defining year for Sark.
Gerald Goodridge (@ghgoodridge) — I hesitate to say title or bust this year, but if Texas comes home without any hardware, it’s hard to see this season as anything other than a disappointment. This is seemingly the year Sark has been building to since he was hired in January of 2021, with the quarterback he wants surrounded by the best talent money can buy. He made a massive change on the defensive side of the ball, hoping he can keep his focus on the offense and let Muschamp be the head coach of the defense. Natty or nothing doesn’t seem fair, but that’s what the money — both the roster and Sark’s hefty paycheck — is for.
It’s the first game of 2026. Which position group are you focused on as we get our first look at the Longhorns in 2026?
Daniel — The offensive line followed closely by the secondary. I want to see how the offensive line is gelling and how the new faces like Melvin Siani and Laurence Seymore look in live action. I want to see how the new starters in the secondary look under new management with Will Muschamp and Blake Gideon back in the saddle. Guys like Bo Mascoe have been drawing rave reviews all offseason, so now it’s time to see what he is made of.
A third as an honorable mention is the running back position. I think Hollywood Smothers and Raleek Brown are going to greatly improve the Texas run game. Can’t wait to see them rip off some nice runs on Saturday.
Jacob —Tight ends. The tight end position is a lynchpin in the Sarkisian offense as an added blocker and route runner. Sark also loves running two and even three tight end sets as well. I’m curious how Nick Townsend and Michael Masunas are utilized and perform on Saturday.
Wescott — The offensive line. Trevor Goosby may be available at left tackle, but the staff will likely limit him to ensure he’s healthy against Ohio State, so I want to see clean play from a penalty and assignment perspective, clean pockets for Arch Manning, and some real seams in the running game, especially on outside zone. One thing I really don’t want to see? Anyone pulling a Connor Stroh and toppling over against overmatched defensive linemen.
Gerald —The offensive line, and specifically the interior of that unit. I honestly have zero doubts about Texas’s abilities at tackle, as the coaching staff seemingly has three guys they trust on the outside. However, we’ve seen over the last two seasons that a pair of underperforming guards can have massive impacts on both the quarterback’s comfort and the running back’s abilities to find holes in the zone scheme. Does Baker continue to find purchase on the right side and can Melvin Siani make the jump Texas needs. The offensive line sets both the floor and the ceiling for this team in a year where expectations are sky high.
There have been gallons of ink spilled about Arch Manning, but let’s spill some more. A year ago it took him a bit to get going, but he closed the season strong. Do you expect Arch to pick up where he left off in the bowl game, or will he need a bit to get going?
Daniel —I think he will look much closer to the guy that we saw against Michigan than the guy we saw in Week 1 against Ohio State. He’s healthy now, he’s got a lot more experience under his belt, and his supporting cast is much improved and more experienced. I think he will hit the ground running on Saturday.
Jacob —Arch’s floor for getting started is significantly higher in my opinion. A slow start wouldn’t surprise me given the roster turnover from last year but I think the length of last year’s start, five games or so, is out of the question.
Wescott — I expect Manning to pick up where he left off. The running game should help create some favorable matchups, and the improvements at wide receiver should ensure that guys are running free in the secondary. After a heavily-scrutinized preseason camp, all of the ingredients are there for Manning to get off to a fast start and find a real comfort level with this team heading into the Ohio State matchup.
Gerald —I would be surprised to see Manning struggle in the game against Texas State. Their defense last year was downright atrocious, and I simply think the talent gap is too wide. I love that because it will hopefully give him a big confidence boost heading into what could be a shootout against Ohio State in Week 2.
One of the big storylines of the offseason was Texas’s aggressive approach to the transfer portal. Which of the offseason additions do you expect to have the biggest impact this season?
Daniel — Part of me wants to be a fat guy homer and pick an offensive lineman, but I’m going to say, Cam Coleman. That dude is a no-nonsense stud, and he was absolutely wasted at Auburn with putrid quarterback play. I think he’s going to be a box office hit this year if Arch continues to make strides as we expect.
Jacob —Rasheem Biles. Biles is a superstar at a critical position that needed an instant plug-and-play. I expect him to lead the defense on and off the field, and I’m excited to see how Muschamp maximizes his potential. My runner up is Bo Mascoe, another defensive get that should immediately bolster a defensive unit that should be revamped from a year ago.
Wescott —Going to go a little bit under the radar and pick right tackle Melvin Siani. He’s an elite pass protector who won’t endure the same growing pains when Manning drops back that Brandon Baker did last year and Sarkisian mentioned during preseason camp that he expected to get that, but he didn’t expect to get a “tough-ass run blocker.” I expect Texas to be successful running behind Siani and executing screen passes to that side of the field with the help of Baker’s athleticism at right guard.
Gerald – The addition of Rasheem Biles as one of the elite grabs in the portal has been overshadowed by the additions on the offensive side of the ball, but Biles is a DUDE. Adding a two-time all-conference player coming off of a 100-tackle season to a defense that needs elite guys at the second level is one of the biggest wins of the offseason, in my opinion. Especially with the recent depth issues at linebacker and what he brings to the table, I think he is going to be a one-year legend at Texas.
Texas is a whopping 29.5-point favorite according to FanDuel. Does Texas have enough firepower to cover a five-score spread?
Daniel —I’m going to take the over slightly in this one. Texas 52, Texas State 21. I feel like Texas will score plenty, but will also empty the benches early enough, and Texas State will get some garbage time glory.
Jacob — Yes. The Texas State defense is Swiss cheese, especially as they rebuild under a brand new defensive coordinator. Texas shouldn’t have a problem scoring points, and I think the defense does enough to slow down Jackson and his two-star wideouts. Texas: 48 Texas State: 17
Wescott —I’m conflicted about this one. There were some glaring communication errors in the secondary in both scrimmages, and Texas State is going to stress alignment, assignment, and communication with their tempo, so my concern is that the explosive Bobcats offense can do enough to cover the spread, but I think the Longhorns take advantage of a defense that is a real work in progress in addition to being outmatched physically on a hot day. Texas covers, but just by a couple of points. Texas 54, Texas State 21.
Gerald —I think this one comes down to how much do we see Texas’ second unit in the game. My biggest hope for Saturday is to see no more than two second-half drives from the first units before Sark pulls them to rest up. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Texas up something like 38-7 at that point, but Texas State can probably put up some points on the second unit. I’ve got Texas 52-28.
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