Northwestern vs. South Dakota State: Game Prediction

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Northwestern football is officially back.

After a long offseason filled with new additions, new expectations and a new-look offense, the Wildcats are finally ready to put everything they have worked on to the test.

Northwestern will open the 2026 season Saturday night against South Dakota State at Northwestern Medicine Field at Martin Stadium in Evanston. Kickoff is scheduled for 7 p.m. CT, with the game airing on Big Ten Network.

There is plenty of excitement surrounding Northwestern entering the season, especially with the additions of offensive coordinator Chip Kelly and Michigan State transfer quarterback Aidan Chiles. 

Chiles was named the Wildcats' starting quarterback after winning an offseason competition with Ryan Boe and Nicco Marchiol and will make his Northwestern debut Saturday.

After months of waiting, it is finally time to see what this new era of Northwestern football can look like.

South Dakota State Will Be a Tough Test

While there is plenty of excitement surrounding Northwestern, this will not be an easy season opener.

South Dakota State already has one game under its belt and enters Saturday with a 1-0 record after dominating Stetson 70-7. The Jackrabbits rushed for 393 yards in the victory and averaged 8.7 yards per carry, showing just how dangerous their rushing attack can be.

Quarterback Chase Mason also showed why Northwestern cannot afford to overlook the Jackrabbits. Mason threw for 157 yards and a touchdown while South Dakota State produced multiple explosive plays through the air and on the ground.

South Dakota State is coming to Evanston with confidence, and the Jackrabbits will have every reason to believe they can pull off an upset.

That makes this an important early test for Northwestern.

Aidan Chiles Can Give Northwestern a Spark

For the first time in a while, Northwestern enters a season with a quarterback who brings significant experience and legitimate playmaking ability.

Chiles started 20 games at Michigan State over the past two seasons and enters Northwestern with 4,116 career passing yards, 27 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. He also brings the ability to make plays with his legs and extend plays when the pocket breaks down.

The biggest thing I expect from Chiles on Saturday is consistency.

He does not need to throw for 400 yards or make a highlight play on every possession. Instead, he needs to make smart decisions, take what the defense gives him and avoid costly turnovers.

If Chiles can settle into Kelly's offense early and establish some confidence, Northwestern should be able to put pressure on South Dakota State's defense throughout the game.

Northwestern's Defense Should Set the Tone

The Wildcats' defense was one of the team's biggest strengths last season, and I expect that unit to once again play a major role.

Northwestern allowed 19.8 points per game in 2025, ranking 24th nationally in scoring defense. Now, the defense will face a South Dakota State team that already showed it can move the football effectively.

The biggest priority should be stopping the run.

After watching the Jackrabbits rush for nearly 400 yards in their opener, Northwestern cannot allow South Dakota State to establish the same type of rhythm Saturday.

If the Wildcats can slow down the ground game, force Mason into obvious passing situations and prevent explosive plays, I expect the defense to make enough plays to give Northwestern control of the game.

The New-Look Offense Has Too Much Potential

This is the part of Saturday I am most excited to watch.

Kelly's arrival gives Northwestern a new offensive identity, while Chiles gives him an experienced quarterback to run it.

Northwestern also has a strong running back room led by Caleb Komolafe and Gavin Sawchuk, along with returning receiver Griffin Wilde and talented tight ends Alex Honig and Luke Dehnicke.

The Wildcats averaged 23.4 points and 346.1 yards per game last season, so there is plenty of room for improvement. Kelly was brought in to help change that, and Saturday will be the first real opportunity to see whether Northwestern can become a more consistent and explosive offense.

I do not expect everything to be perfect immediately.

There will probably be some early mistakes as the offense gets comfortable in a new system. But I expect Northwestern to find ways to create easy yards, get its playmakers involved and build momentum as the game progresses.

Most importantly, the Wildcats need to protect the football.

Prediction: Northwestern Wins

I expect South Dakota State to make this a competitive game early.

The Jackrabbits have already played a game, they are confident and they have enough talent to cause problems if Northwestern comes out flat. The Wildcats cannot afford to overlook them simply because they are an FCS opponent.

But playing at home, having a talented defense and introducing a new offense led by Kelly and Chiles gives Northwestern too much working in its favor.

After an entire offseason of hearing about Chiles' leadership, consistency and development, I expect those qualities to show up on Saturday.

I expect Northwestern to play a clean game, avoid turnovers and gradually take control.

The defense will slow down South Dakota State's rushing attack, while Chiles and the new-look offense will make enough plays to give the Wildcats their first win of the season.

Final prediction: Northwestern 31, South Dakota State 14.

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