Staff Predictions: Florida State Seminoles vs. No. 19 SMU Mustangs

Staff Predictions: Florida State Seminoles vs. No. 19 SMU Mustangs

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Staff Predictions: Florida State Seminoles vs. No. 19 SMU Mustangs
Sep 28, 2024; Dallas, Texas, USA; A view of the teams at midfield during the game between the Southern Methodist Mustangs and the Florida State Seminoles at Gerald J. Ford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Con

The Florida State Seminoles (1-0, 0-0 ACC) will host the preseason No. 19-ranked SMU Mustangs (0-0, 0-0 ACC) on Labor Day evening for a primetime, nationally televised matchup at Doak Campbell Stadium to close out Week 1 of the 2026 college football season.

The teams are facing off for only the second time, and the first in Tallahassee, with SMU comfortably beating the Seminoles 42-16 in Dallas in their previous 2024 meeting. The kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. and will be televised and streamed by ESPN.

The Seminoles are coming off an underwhelming 34-17 win last week as 31-point favorites over New Mexico State, in a game that was still in doubt in the 3rd quarter, 17-10, before the Noles finally took control midway through the 4th quarter.

After ending their 2024 ACC debut season with an 8-0 undefeated record, SMU finished the 2025 season with a 6-2 ACC record that might have been 8-0 if not for a 1-point loss to Wake Forest and a late touchdown by California with 43 seconds remaining that cost the Mustangs any chance at the CFP, despite having beaten 10th-ranked Miami during last season.

The Mustangs 5th-year head coach Rhett Lashlee’s 38-16 overall SMU resume includes an appearance in the inaugural 12-team College Football 2024 Playoff as the 11th seed, and a 14-2 conference record in SMU’s first 2 seasons as an ACC member. Incidentally, SMU gave up its first 9 years of ACC media rights (zero media revenue estimated at $200 million) to be accepted into the same conference that FSU is suing to get out of.

The SMU offense is led by 3rd-year starting QB Kevin Jennings, who has reportedly recovered from an injured index finger on his throwing hand from a locker room incident that caused him 2 missed weeks of fall camp, and will start for the Mustangs’ season opener. Jennings is no stranger to FSU fans after torching the Seminole defense in 2024, completing 16 of 23 passes for 254 yards and a career-high 3 touchdowns with 0 interceptions, leading SMU to rack up 458 yards of offense.

SMU’s offense will be replacing its top two running backs, four of its top receivers (2 wide receivers and 2 tight ends), and two offensive linemen, all who were starters last season and are no longer with the team.

Despite having to replace two starters, the three returning offensive linemen make up what is considered one of the Mustangs’ strongest units, led by Second Team All-ACC left tackle PJ Williams, All-ACC honorable mention center Joshua Bates, and Tennessee and Arkansas transfer right guard Addison Nichols. Bates and Williams were both named to the All-ACC preseason team and the Outland Trophy Watchlist, and Bates is also on the Rimington Trophy Watchlist as well.

SMU’s linebackers, led by Alexander Kilgore, are the most experienced unit on the defensive side and all 3 are returning starters. Both the defensive line and secondary had significant losses from last season; however, Lashlee restocked his defense with experienced portal transfers, most with previous starting experience elsewhere.

Here is where things could get interesting. When Rhett Lashlee replaced Sonny Dykes as SMU’s head coach for the 2022 season, he hired Casey Woods as his offensive coordinator and Scott Symons as his defensive coordinator. Woods and Symons were instrumental in SMU’s success while coaching the Mustangs to a 38-16 overall record (7-6, 11-3, 11-3, 9-4) during this four-season period. Woods is now the head coach at Missouri State, and Symons is an assistant coach with the Dallas Cowboys.

What could make this interesting for the Seminoles is that Rhett Lashlee decided not to hire either an offensive or a defensive coordinator. Instead, the offense will be run by a committee of three consisting of the OL coach, the WR coach, and the QB coach, as well as each coach continuing on with their existing positional duties and requirements.

Defensively, in place of a dedicated coordinator, they will have co-defensive coordinators, with one coach calling the defensive plays during games, and the other coach calling the secondary.

Hopefully, the Seminoles can take advantage and be on the receiving end of any coaching lapses and confusion for a change, especially since this is SMU’s first game under their new coaching-by-committee system, in a nighttime game at Doak.

Florida State is trending as a 2.5-point underdog, with the over/under set at 53.5 points, according to FanDuel.

  • Read what your TOMAHAWK NATION PROGNOSTICATORS think about this Saturday’s showdown.
  • Then look over and digest all the FREE PRE-GAME CONTENT we’ve posted leading up to this game.
  • We would love to hear your thoughts about how you feel about this game and your final score prediction in the comments.
  • Jessi Wynn (season record: 1-0)

Florida State got the win against New Mexico State, but there were still plenty of mistakes that need to be cleaned up before facing a much tougher SMU team.

Offensively, FSU still has plenty of weapons around Ashton Daniels. Duce Robinson, Micahi Danzy, Landen Thomas, Sam Singleton Jr., and Ousmane Kromah all have the ability to make plays, but I think the biggest question will be whether the Seminoles can put together more consistent drives and take advantage of their opportunities.

Defensively, FSU will also need to take a step forward. SMU is going to challenge the Seminoles more than New Mexico State did, and I think we’ll get a much better idea of what this FSU team actually looks like after this game.

Playing at home should help FSU keep it close, but based on what I saw in the season opener, I expect FSU to look better than it did last week, but I think SMU makes a few more plays down the stretch to come away with the win.

SMU 31, FSU 27

  • NoleThruandThru (season record: 0-0)

I’m just here so I don’t get fined.

SMU 27,  FSU 19

  • Jordan Silversmith (season record: 1-0)

Even before the strange NMSU, I didn’t have confidence that Florida State could do anything of substance in this game. The Mustangs are a veteran, deep, well-coached team. Do any of those words apply to FSU?

Rhett Lashlee will have something cooked up after an entire offseason to plan, and the quarterback advantage SMU has with Kevin Jennings will be too much for the Seminoles to overcome. I think the bigger question is if this Labor Day matchup turns into a gong show like against Boston College a few years ago, or if the Noles have something to take from this game. For now, I agree with Jessi: the game is close and high-scoring before SMU pulls away for a double-digit win on the road. The Mustangs cover and the over 52.5.

SMU 34, FSU 24

  • Matt Minnick (season record: 1-0, 1-0 ATS)

Walking out of Doak Campbell last Saturday, I told my buddy the Mustangs were going to win by 24+. But as the time between whatever that opening performance was and this prediction has widened, a few factors in FSU’s favor now stand out.

A) All time, teams that have already played a game cover the spread about 56% of the time when facing an opponent that has yet to play a game that season.

2) Over the last 4 years, home underdogs of 2.5 or less points (which is where the line started) have actually won outright about 47% of the time. And while the spread has jumped to +3.5 for FSU, that’s been the result of a tidal wave of public betting on SMU. Vegas didn’t get rich by losing to the public.

d) As frustrating as FSU’s play and results have been the last two years, the Noles have actually gone 6-2 at home over their last 8 games. And the two losses were by a combined 9 points to teams that won a combined 21 games.

Indeed, if this game pitted just two random opponents with all these same factors, I’d very likely take the home team to pull the “small upset” and win outright. But it’s not two random teams. It’s two teams I’m fairly familiar with. And until proven otherwise, I’ll continue to believe that FSU will make enough mistakes—coaching and player execution—during high-leverage situations (such as a tripping penalty on first down inside your opponent’s 10-yard line) that allows Mike Norvell’s squad to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

SMU 28, FSU 23

  • Curt Weiler (season record: 1-0)

Did I or did I not say last week that I would only really read into the season opener if it was closer than expected?

Unfortunately, that showing made me worried that even my meager win projection could be too high for this year’s team. There were some things I liked, but the lack of push on either side of the line of scrimmage against a Conference USA team makes me worried about how that will play out this week against a team picked to finish second in the ACC.

Maybe the Doak effect can show its face Monday night. It feels like this team needs that to be an equalizer of sorts against a notably more talented team.

SMU34, FSU 21

  • LastNoleOfKrypton (season record: 1-0)

FSU is going to immediately reverse course because it’s hard for me to envision the Seminoles stopping anyone consistently the way third downs were given up vs. New Mexico State. Nine times out of ten, you give me a single-digit favorite in Doak I’m going to want to choose Doak. That’s not happening until I see serious improvement in the pass rush. I do not think I can pick this to beat a team as well-coached and as veteran as SMU with this ‘death by a thousand cuts’ style of defense that FSU wants to play.

As good as Kevin Jennings is, he’s the type of streaky thrower that you want to pressure and force chaos around him, even if that means one-on-ones down the field. You spent heavily to retain these DBs, force them to make plays. This side of the ball feels like a severe coaching mismatch to me.

On the offensive side, I like FSU’s ability to score points, especially at home with these skill players, but I’m going to just be brutally honest. The QB processes way too slowly, and that interception is something 18-year-olds do, not 22-year-olds. He’s the bottleneck that will stop this engine from going; more than any OL or the TEs, as I currently see it. He’s going to make plays, and he can extend well outside the pocket, but on-time balls and throwing guys to an open space rather than where they are? Not likely to happen in year 5.

Unfortunately, Mustangs win.

SMU 38, FSU 35

  • Jon Marchant (season record: 1-0)

I don’t trust this staff or this team, but I’d be happy to be proven wrong.

SMU 33, FSU 23

  • Tim Scribble (season record: 1-0)

Last week’s defensive performance does not bode well for facing SMU’s Kevin Jennings. The experienced SMU line and Jennings’ pocket awareness, combined with FSU’s bend-don’t-break defense, are a recipe for disaster. The Seminoles will lose comfortably.

SMU 38, FSU 17

  • Jacob Smith (season record: 1-0)

This has aaaaaaaaaaaaalllll the makings of a loss. One really underrated part of SMU’s offense is their line. Goodness, they have two preseason All-ACC guys blocking for Kevin Jennings, perhaps the best dual-threat quarterback in the conference. How SMU is just a 3.5-point favorite, I have no clue. FSU is going to get absolutely fried by their passing and rushing attack, the Seminoles’ defense can’t defense.

Kromah and Singleton should still be good-to-great, and at least it’s a three-day weekend.

SMU 41, FSU 24

  • Frank DaNole (season record: 1-0)

This will be the game when everything comes together for the Noles. The Noles are only 2.5-point underdogs for a reason. Vegas knows it, and the Seminoles know it.

The game will follow a similar storyline to what we witnessed last year when Alabama came to Tallahassee. The Seminoles may not dominate at all three positional units for the entire game, but FSU will win the offensive, defensive, and special teams battles because the FSU players will give 110% more effort, they will want it more, and they will play with more heart than their SMU opponents.

Also, Lashlee has a very punchable face.

FSU Seminoles 34, Beaten Horses Ridden Hard and Put Away Wet 27

  • Perry Kostidakis (season record: 1-0, 1-0 ATS)

What’s the point of football season if not to be a little delusional now and again?

I know, I know, this game has both all the soft factors (obvious upset choice in the eyes of the rest of the country) and real ones (SMU is a better team) that indicate a loss, but I can’t shake the feeling of this being a Florida State win. I found myself agreeing with the coaching staff all week when they said that all the issues that arose during last week’s win were correctable because, really, by and large, they are — whether they get corrected is the real concern, though at least the message also coming from players is that they are also annoyed with what was left on the field against New Mexico State.

You can see it, too, can’t you? FSU gets a 14-point lead, makes it way closer than it needs to be by kicking a field goal when a touchdown is needed as SMU starts to sneak back into it, but holds on for a win that is still somehow frustrating.

These are Hulk-sized ifs, but if FSU learned from its film, if the Seminoles shake off the communication issues and (the biggest one) if the offensive line is at least a little bit more figured out, a win is up for grabs.

Under Rhett Lashlee, the Mustangs have lost every game (0-4) vs. their first power conference opponent of the season, all of them following at least one tune-up matchup. And as Matt pointed out above, there are additional statistical trends that point in FSU’s favor.

How the Seminoles bounce back from a lackluster defensive showing is the key to a Monday night upset. The Mustangs are replacing a bulk of their receiving corps, but Kevin Jennings being the constant helps level out any potential production drop-off through the air. SMU’s rushing attack fell off a bit last year, though the hope is that former NC State and California running back Kendrick Raphael will add to Jennings’ dual-threat ability to reverse that trend.

On defense, the Mustangs were especially vulnerable in the secondary, ranked second-to-last nationally in passing yards per game, and are replacing a few names — though they are expected to have first-team All-ACC safety Ahmaad Moses back after being granted a fifth year of eligibility. SMU is also replacing the bulk of its defensive line, losing all four starters from last season.

Let Ousmane Kromah, Sam Singleton Jr., and Tre Wisner get flowing, feed Duce a few times, finish plays out when getting pressure from the trenches, actually snuff out drives on third down, humble the Ponies, and get a modicum of hope heading into Alabama week.

FSU 27, SMU 21

Florida State Seminoles vs. SMU Mustangs

Pre-Game Coverage from Tomahawk Nation

Florida State Seminoles vs. SMU Mustangs: How to watch, stream, odds

Date

  • Monday, September 7th

Time

  • 7:30 p.m. ET

Watch/Stream

Listen

Spread

  • -2.5, SMU

Over/Under

  • 53.5 points

Weekly Tomahawk Nation Member Guest Picker

This week’s TN member guest picker is Topnole, a long-time TN member who joined on July 27, 2016:  

In my time at FSU, SMU football didn’t exist, as the NCAA gave them the “death penalty” for what would now be normal behavior.  Moreover, any team coming to Tallahassee expected a 60-minute slugfest at best, just hoping to be in the game in the fourth quarter. The most likely scenario was a blowout loss for visiting teams, and Doak provided a huge home-field advantage (and I lost my voice during many rivalry games doing my part). My, how things have changed. But I digress as I recall how lucky I was to be a student in the dynasty years.  

Now to the matter at hand. Before Saturday, I was starting to feel good about FSU football based on a few positive articles I read about the big guys in the trenches. My optimism had me believing we might just see some really good things from the O and D lines, and we would be quite competitive with teams like SMU. However, it would seem that yet another year of blind optimism quickly turned to pessimism and concern. Anyone watching Saturday knows we need significant progress (and quickly) from the O and D lines. I’ve heard many times over that the greatest progress made in a season happens from game one to game two. Is it possible that we see such progress on Labor Day? I can’t rule that out, but it is hard not to be skeptical given the past seven years.  

To me, this game comes down to the trenches. If the O-line can block and not hold, if the D-line gets pressure and can stop the run, and if we eliminate some of the miscommunication in the secondary…. If all of these happen, I think we win.

Those are some big ifs, and I don’t think we are quite there. It is more likely that we see Daniels under pressure far too often, and our RBs fighting for any positive yardage as they get hit at or behind the line. Unfortunately, I just don’t see us having the horse(s) to outrun the Mustangs. They will enjoy too many third-and-long conversions on top of many easy first-down runs. They will also benefit from a broken play or two, all of this resulting in a lot of points. We will pop one or two big plays that might result in a TD or two, but many of our drives will result in three-and-out or a stall as we near or hit the red zone, resulting in MN making some decisions that make all of us groan in discomfort. Sadly, I predict this is going to be a moderately comfortable win for the Mustangs. I hope I’m wrong and the big guys show us some significant growth.

It was an honor being a guest picker among the legendary TN Staff and the many other great TN contributors here, but…

SMU 38,FSU 21

*The TN member with the closest final score prediction in the comment section below will be given the opportunity to be a guest picker later this season if they are interested in participating.

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