College football Week 2 best bets: 7 spread picks after major line movement
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College football Week 2 brings a much clearer picture than we had a week ago, but the market has already made some major adjustments. Several spreads have moved multiple points since opening, creating a new set of best bets for Saturday’s slate.
Tennessee has seen the biggest shift, moving from an 8.5-point favorite to 12.5, while Oregon, Penn State and Iowa have also seen notable movement. Here are seven games where the current number still offers value.
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Oregon vs. Oklahoma State (Oregon -23.5)
- Saturday, September 12, 12 p.m. ET, ESPN
Boone Pickens Stadium gets a matchup between a team that nearly lost its opener and one that actually did. Oregon trailed Boise State 17-7 late in the first half before pulling away for a 34-27 win. Oklahoma State lost 24-10 at Tulsa as a double-digit favorite in Eric Morris’ first game, scoring 10 points while Drew Mestemaker threw 49 times for 241 yards with two interceptions and a fumble.
Blocking is the problem in Stillwater. Left tackle Jacob Sexton is out for the season, and that line already surrendered two sacks and 10 quarterback hits against a Group of Six front. Now it draws Bear Alexander and A’Mauri Washington. Oregon opened at -20.5 and has been pushed to -23.5, but 3 points of movement doesn’t close the distance between these two rosters.
Pick: 41-13, Oregon
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Penn State vs. Temple (Temple +23.5)
- Saturday, September 12, 12 p.m. ET, ESPN2
Lincoln Financial Field won’t feel like a road trip for a program that is 40-4-1 against Temple, which is part of why the number climbed 2 points off the open. Penn State beat Marshall 45-0 in Matt Campbell’s debut, piling up 487 yards while holding the Thundering Herd to 147. Rocco Becht went 13-of-18 for 271 yards and four touchdowns.
Temple beat Rhode Island 38-14 and leads the FBS in red zone offense, though the Owls converted just 25% of third downs and rank 120th nationally in that category. K.C. Keeler sends Penn State transfer Jaxon Smolik out against his old program. Campbell’s first road trip comes early in the day after a blowout, and 23.5 asks plenty of a Penn State ground game that was the one soft spot last week.
Pick: 34-14, Penn State
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Wake Forest vs. Purdue (Purdue +3)
- Saturday, September 12, 12 p.m. ET
Ross-Ade Stadium hosts the only game on this card where the market moved toward the home underdog, with Wake Forest dropping from -3.5 to -3. Both quarterbacks were efficient in Week 1. Ryan Browne went 23-of-29 for 317 yards and three touchdowns in Purdue’s 44-19 win over Indiana State, while Gio Lopez threw for 350 yards and three scores in a 38-16 Wake Forest win over Akron.
Jake Dickert returns six starters in his second season and lost nine All-ACC performers without replacing them through the portal. Barry Odom has his starting quarterback back, plus a receiver in Asaad Waseem, who went for 107 yards and a touchdown in the opener. Getting the field goal at home with the more established offense is the play.
Pick: 27-24, Purdue
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Arizona vs. BYU (Arizona +7.5)
- Saturday, September 12, 3:30 p.m. ET, Fox
LaVell Edwards Stadium has been unkind to the Wildcats, and BYU has won five straight in the series, including a 33-27 double-overtime win in Tucson last season. Both teams handled overmatched openers. Arizona beat Northern Arizona 35-7 and held the Lumberjacks to minus-7 rushing yards, while BYU rolled Utah Tech 63-7 behind four total touchdowns from Bear Bachmeier and four forced turnovers.
Noah Fifita nearly knocked off BYU in last year’s double-overtime meeting. BYU also lost senior safety Raider Damuni to injury, which matters against an Arizona offense returning its starter and most of his weapons. The total has fallen 4 points from 51.5 to 47.5, and a lower-scoring game keeps this inside a touchdown plus the hook.
Pick: 27-24, BYU
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Tennessee vs. Georgia Tech (Georgia Tech +12.5)
- Saturday, September 12, 7 p.m. ET
No line on the Week 2 board moved further than this one. Tennessee opened at 8.5 and now lays 12.5 after Georgia Tech lost 14-13 to Colorado, a game the Yellow Jackets could have won on a field goal that was blocked in the closing seconds. Tech managed only 51 rushing yards in that loss.
Tennessee beat Furman and hasn’t faced anything close to a test, and quarterback Faizon Brandon makes his first true road start at Bobby Dodd Stadium. The Yellow Jackets get the crowd, the bounce-back motive, and 4 more points than were available on Sunday. Josh Heupel’s team should win this game without covering two scores.
Pick: 35-24, Tennessee
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Iowa State vs. Iowa (Iowa State +14)
- Saturday, September 12, 7:30 p.m. ET
Kinnick Stadium hosts the Cy-Hawk Trophy, and Iowa still hasn’t named a starting quarterback. Three players took snaps in the 40-0 win over Northern Illinois, with reps splitting between Hank Brown and Jeremy Hecklinski. Kamari Moulton carried the offense with 183 yards and two touchdowns on the ground.
Iowa State turned over nearly its entire starting lineup after Matt Campbell left for Penn State, and Jaylen Raynor has thrown 28 interceptions in his career. Even so, the Cyclones beat Southeast Missouri 38-10 with six sacks while Raynor accounted for four touchdowns. Six of the last 10 meetings in this rivalry have been decided by 7 points or fewer, and Iowa State has won the last two outright. The number opened at 11.5, and 14 is too many for a defensive game between rivals.
Pick: 24-13, Iowa
Ohio State vs. Texas (Ohio State +1.5)
- Saturday, September 12, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC
A game that opened at pick ’em and settled at Texas -1.5 tells you the market can’t separate these teams, and neither can recent history. Ohio State leads the all-time series 3-2 and has won the last two meetings, beating Texas 28-14 in the College Football Playoff semifinal in January 2025, then winning 14-7 in Columbus last August. Julian Sayin went 21-of-25 for 320 yards and three touchdowns in a 56-3 win, and Arch Manning went 20-of-27 for 305 yards and four scores in a 59-7 win.
Sayin returns with Jeremiah Smith and Bo Jackson. The Buckeyes’ defense held Ball State to 165 total yards. Texas gave up 161 rushing yards at 3.9 per carry to Texas State, which is the door Jackson can walk through. Will Muschamp will move Colin Simmons and Raheem Biles around to attack Ohio State’s tackles, but the Buckeyes are also sitting at +100 on the moneyline if you’d rather avoid the hook entirely.
Pick: 24-20, Ohio State
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