College Football Underdog Picks: Week 2 Plays for John Mateer, Alonza Barnett, More (Saturday, Sept. 12)
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Living in Florida limits some of the ways I can attack the college football landscape, but it doesn’t mean there aren’t opportunities out there.
Underdog is one of the places where I can take advantage of my college football research through player projections, and that’s what I’ll be focusing on here.
My approach to these picks goes beyond simply looking at last year’s box scores.
Coaching changes, scheme adjustments, personnel movement, depth charts, and expected roles all play a major part in projecting what these players will look like this season.
Early in the year, there can be an advantage in identifying those changes before we have multiple weeks of data telling us what has already happened.
For this slate, there are six numbers that stand out to me, with several that I’m comfortable pushing well beyond the current projection.
Let’s take a look at my college football underdog picks and NCAAF plays for Week 2.
College Football Underdog Picks: Week 2
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Mateer wasn’t needed much as a runner last week, but I think he will be against this Michigan defense.
Last season, he ran for over 75 yards against the Wolverines, and I think he can churn out around 50 yards range this season.
Michigan’s offense should allow Oklahoma to possess the ball a ton in this matchup, and over time, I expect Mateer to play Superman and use his legs to pick up extra yards and sustain drives.
I also like him for higher than 4.5 rushing yards in the first quarter.
Pick: John Mateer Higher Than 32.5 Rush Yds
Clark was barely used last week and still hit 100 rushing yards. I think he cruises to 80-plus yards on the road against a terrible Purdue run defense.
Purdue made a change at defensive coordinator this offseason, but this guy was with the team in 2023 and 2024, back when opponents were running all over them.
I expect Clark to see between 16 and 20 rushing attempts while being efficient with those opportunities.
Pick: Ty Clark Higher Than 69.5 Rush Yds
The Pittsburgh Panthers’ defense wants to stop the run and will blitz you a ton. As a result, they get destroyed by tight ends. Last season, two different tight ends went for over 100 receiving yards against Pitt.
Dylan Wade didn’t do much last weekend, but he was UCF’s leading receiver down the stretch last season, and I expect a huge performance from him. I expect him to haul in between 60 and 70 yards in this matchup.
Barnett isn’t the greatest passer, but I believe his receiving corps can carry him.
This game should also feature a lot more tempo than Underdog is accounting for.
I also don’t mind Duke Watson for higher than 45.5 rushing yards in this same matchup.
Pick: Alonza Barnett + Dylan Wade Higher Than 219.5 Pass Yds + 29.5 Rec Yds
We only have a one-week sample, but Ragins has established himself as a serious deep threat, with an air-yard share close to 40%, per SIS.
I don’t mind taking his longest reception up to the 34.5-yard mark, and I also like his 31.5 receiving-yard total.
The safest play to me is the longest reception. I trust Kamario Taylor to connect with him on a deep ball this week.
Pick: Zion Ragins Higher Than 17.5 Longest Reception
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