Jumbo Package: Alabama football at Kentucky previews and predictions
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Happy Friday, everyone. Alabama will hit the road tomorrow to open SEC play at Kentucky. Your previews and predictions:
You first thought maybe to back Alabama in this spot, but we have to keep reminding ourselves that this is no longer Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide. This team is a shell of its former self, and despite beating East Carolina by 38 points in Week 1, I have some questions about their performance in that game. Russell completed just 18-of-30 passes in that game, and their rushing attack averaged only 4.6 yards per carry. I’d expect better against the Pirates.
Don’t be surprised if Kentucky’s offense can hang with them in this game.
I’m going to take the 10.5 points with the home team in this one.
Pick: Kentucky +10.5
Former Notre Dame quarterback Kenny Minchey impressed for the Cats in his debut versus Youngstown State with 301 passing yards and four passing touchdowns. It was a nearly flawless performance for Kentucky, which had zero turnovers and allowed no sacks. Meanwhile, Bama did give the ball away and allowed its quarterback to go down in a victory over East Carolina in Week 1. Kentucky will host Saturday’s matchup, and the Wildcats have won three straight home games dating back to 2025 — including in SEC play — with all three combing by at least 31 points. Under former Oregon OC and first-year head coach Will Stein, UK has enough offense to keep the score manageable as it’s projected to cover almost 60% of the time.
Alabama looked almost as good as it could have a week ago. Russell shined, but wasn’t perfect. The running backs fell forward, even if the holes weren’t all the way there. The defense forced a turnover and silenced the opposing team, but had a mistake or two. Alabama dominated, while imperfect, as it should against a team like East Carolina.
But that same imperfection may not work against an SEC team, even if it is an SEC team that Alabama beats regularly. Russell needs to be better and more efficient as a passer. Alabama needs continued bursts from its run game and fewer drops from its receivers. Alabama needs to put pressure on the opposing backfield and let the veteran defensive backfield do its job. Michael Carroll is a big loss for Alabama if he does miss the Crimson Tide’s SEC opener, but the result shouldn’t be too different.
Prediction: Alabama 35, Kentucky 14
Schuster: Alabama -10.5
Will Stein may talk like Curt Cignetti, but, uh, can he do the other stuff?
D’Andrea: Alabama -10.5
Ooof, buddy, the Tide looked like their old selves while mopping up East Carolina.
Nettuno: Alabama -10.5
I think Alabama *probably* pulls away here, but Kentucky has my attention.
AlBaroudi: Kentucky +10.5
Will Stein gets a signature win early in his Kentucky tenure.
“Kenny Minchey transfers in from Notre Dame. He had a good start last week,” Klatt said on his podcast. “Youngstown State came to town for Kentucky. Kentucky handled them. Minchey had 300 yards and four touchdowns for Will Stein. Kentucky’s got the former Texas running back CJ Baxter, who I thought a lot of before he got injured in his Texas career. They brought in Jay Bateman from A&M. Can he pressure (Keelon) Russell, the Alabama quarterback? I just come down to this: the Bama defense was great.
“I know we’re all going to be talking about what we expect from their offensive line and what Keelon Russell can do at quarterback. But the real strength of this team, and I think the identity of this team is their defense. I just don’t know if Kentucky is going to be able to move the ball and sustain enough drives … so I’m going to go with Bama here. I got Bama on the road, 28-17.”
Alabama has to show that Week 1 wasn’t a mirage.
The overall talent might not be at a Nick Saban-era level, but the Tide secondary is potentially as good as any in America, and if Russell can get some help from the backs – and especially with more plays from the receiving corps – this should be the moment when the team proves it’s for real.
But in this giant home game, Kentucky won’t flinch. It might not be able to come through late to pull this off, but Stein will show the fan base what the program could become.
Alabama 31, Kentucky 20
As it was in 1997 with Hal Mumme, the Cats have a first-year coach in Stein. As with Mumme, Stein is a highly regarded, innovative offensive mind. Mumme’s starting quarterback that season, Tim Couch, is the most accurate passer in program history; UK’s new field general, Kenny Minchey, just authored possibly the best first-time start by any QB in the school’s annals.
It won’t be easy Saturday. No one is saying the Cats will win in a rout.
But Saturday ends the same way the 1997 edition did: with the goal posts in Lexington torn asunder, supplying Kentucky fans a memory that will last a lifetime.
Kentucky 24, Alabama 20.
As you can see, plenty of folks are picking Kentucky to keep this thing close, if not win outright. Wildcats coach Will Stein has doubled down on his request for a raucous crowd, suggesting that fans break the rules by sneaking hard liquor into Kroger stadium.
“I want them in there 45 to 30 minutes before, in their seat, standing up, screaming obscenities at our opponent, making them feel very unwanted in Kroger Field and creating an environment of excellence for Kentucky football,” Stein said. “I mean, that’s what it’s about. You want to see a great product on the field. I want to see insane fans in the stands as well.”
With college football stadiums now serving alcohol, an interesting dynamic was created. Sometimes, there are empty seats scattered throughout the venue as fans seek refills. Stein’s solution is simple: Go old-school and sneak booze into Kroger Field.
“Sneak a flask in,” Stein said. “Sneak a flask in. Again, do whatever you got to do, right? Get your drinks ready. Sit in your chair, all right, and start cheering. And then once you’re done with the drink, go back in as fast as you can, and come right back out.”
They don’t even sell that stuff at Kroger, Will.
Michael Carroll is a big loss along the offensive line, as Keelon Russell is making his first road start and that is never easy. Pass protection, and the ability to take some pressure off of the passing game by running the ball effectively, are needed tomorrow. Can the Tide do this without Carroll?
One thing that hasn’t been mentioned often is the weather. There is plenty of rain in the forecast around Lexington tomorrow, and a very real chance of thunderstorms that could delay the action. Wet fields tend to create more variance due to sloppy ballhandling, and increase the risk of injuries.
Kentucky QB Kenny Minchey will have the luxury of playing at home, but this is his first start against a FBS opponent. And, it just happens to come against one of the best and most experienced secondaries in the nation aided by pass rush extraordinaire Yhonzae Pierre. Going from the Youngstown State defense to this Alabama unit is going to be a much more difficult adjustment than Russell will face on the other side.
This Alabama team is mature and seems locked in. They may well make a fool out of me tomorrow, but for now I’m going to buy in. Alabama runs for 150 yards and passes for 250 en route to a 31-13 victory.
Of course, that is merely my opinion. Share yours in the comments below.
Carroll was joined on the injury report by freshman DB Zyan Gibson.
Michael Carroll remains “doubtful” for Alabama football’s SEC road trip to Kentucky. Now, the Crimson Tide is down a third defensive back.
Freshman Zyan Gibson was added to the SEC availability report Thursday, Sept. 10 and will be out against the Wildcats. Jorden Edmonds and Nick Sherman will also miss the Crimson Tide‘s SEC debut, while Jireh Edwards is questionable.
Alabama‘s top three cornerbacks are available in Zabien Brown, Dijon Lee Jr. and Carmelo O’Neal. Chuck McDonald III, who plays both cornerback and Husky nickel back, is also available.
Last, John Talty’s Lane Kiffin biography drops on Tuesday.
At each of his post-Alabama stops, Kiffin has breathed life into irrelevant or dormant football programs. But there is always a price with hiring Kiffin, who possesses a tendency to drive his employers crazy with his antics — both public and private — and most of the time has left on less-than-ideal terms.
Nevertheless, that’s a big part of what makes Kiffin so fascinating, Talty said.
“It’s that there can be the high highs and then low lows,” said Talty, who is now a national college football reporter for CBS Sports. “In a world in which I think there’s a lot of cookie cutter, copycat type guys, he’s very unique in all the best and worst ways. And that has been really interesting to me.
“And then, frankly, the other thing that I was interested in that is that … these stories have been dying to be told, but no one did them. And I think it’s because Lane is very good at working certain media relationships to not have things told a certain way. And so I like the idea of, if I could just tell a true, honest portrayal of this guy, the great stuff, the bad stuff, everything in between, that would just be so interesting to SEC fans, college football fans that have probably seen very sanitized versions of who this guy is in the past.”
That should be an interesting read.
That’s about it for today. Have a great weekend.
Roll Tide.
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