Scarlet Spreadsheet: What the analytics say about Ohio State vs. Texas
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College football has evolved so rapidly over the last several years, and there are an increasing variety of ways to break down any given Saturday.
Here on Scarlet Spreadsheet, we are going to compile all of the various analytical models to get the best possible preview of each of Ohio State’s matchups throughout the 2026 season based on the underlying numbers and metrics.
With the tune-up game out of the way, the Buckeyes now travel to Austin, Texas for a battle against the Longhorns. Ohio State is an underdog for the first time since 2023, and Steve Sarkisian will be looking for revenge at home after back-to-back losses to Ryan Day’s group.
With only one game under the belt for both of these two teams thus far, our ability to break it down from an analytical standpoint is limited, but we can take a look at how these two teams looked in Week 1, the updated computer models and some projections.
Football Power Index
Ohio State
- FPI: 30.0 (Rank: 2)
- Proj. W-L: 10.4-2.2
- Win Out %: 10.0
- 6 Wins %: 99.7
- Win Conf. %: 44.8
- CFP %: 77.8
- Make NC %: 28.9
- Win NC %: 17.1
Texas
- FPI: 30.2 (Rank: 1)
- Proj. W-L: 10.2-2.3
- Win Out %: 10.7
- 6 Wins %: 99.3
- Win Conf. %: 35.5
- CFP %: 79.7
- Make NC %: 30.2
- Win NC %: 18.2
FPI Matchup Predictor: Texas 59.8%
SP+
Ohio State
- Rank: No. 1
- Rating: 30.0
- Offense: 40.0 (3rd)
- Defense: 10.1 (1st)
- Special Teams: 0.1 (67th)
Texas
- Rank: No. 4
- Rating: 25.4
- Offense: 39.2 (5th)
- Defense: 14.2 (8th)
- Special Teams: 0.4 (31st)
Matchup
Projected Winner: Ohio Sate
- Projected Margin: 2 points
- Win Probability: 55%
- Projected Score (rounded): 27-25
Computer Models
With still very little data for either of these two teams with only one game under their belt apiece, here are some computer model rankings for Ohio State and Texas.
Sagarin Rankings
- Ohio State: 102.33 (1st)
- Texas: 97.91 (5th)
The Power Rank
- Ohio State: 28.68 (1st)
- Texas: 21.90 (6th)
- Matchup Prediction: Ohio State (1) will beat Texas (5) by 2.7 on the road (58% chance)
Massey Ratings
- Ohio State: 9.23 (1st)
- Offense: 67.30 (4th)
- Defense: 43.98 (1st)
- Texas: 8.79 (8th)
- Offense: 65.31 (9th)
- Defense: 38.75 (9th)
- Matchup Prediction: Ohio State 28, Texas 21 (69% win probability)
Advanced Metrics
| Rank | Metric | Ohio State Offense vs. Texas Defense | Metric | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd | 0.39 | EPA/Pass | -0.04 | 29th |
| 57th | 0.09 | EPA/Rush | -0.06 | 13th |
| 6th | 61.7% | Available Yards % | 0 | 20th |
| 106th | Own 27 | Starting Field Position | Own 27 | 26th |
| 13th | 0.19 | Early Downs EPA/Play | -0.02 | 24th |
| 1st | 59.1% | 3rd/4th Down Success | 40.5% | T-28th |
| 4th | 5.87 | Avg 3rd Down Distance | 7.55 | 16th |
Rank Metric Texas Offense vs. Ohio State Defense Metric Rank 32nd 0.17 EPA/Pass -0.15 8th 58th 0.09 EPA/Rush -0.12 7th 63rd 48.2% Available Yards % 33.00% 3rd 6th Own 32 Starting Field Position Own 26 11th 33rd 0.13 Early Downs EPA/Play -0.11 5th T-80th 43.9% 3rd/4th Down Success 37.6% 13th 121st 7.66 Avg 3rd Down Distance 6.89 76th
Advanced Metrics Explainer
EPA (Expected Points Added)
- How many points an offense is expected to score on a drive given the current situation
- Value is primarily driven by down, distance and field position
- A five-yard gain on 3rd-and-4 is worth more than a five-yard gain on 3rd-and-20
- EPA is probability-based, not exact
- An EPA of 1.2 does not mean a team will score 1.2 points
- On average, a team will score 1.2 points on that drive in that situation
- EPA measures how much a single play changes an offense’s chance of scoring
Available Yards %
- Measured from starting field position to end zone
- A drive that starts on the 20-yard line and ends at the opponent 40-yard line = 50%
- A drive that starts on the 20-yard line and ends in a touchdown = 100%
Prior Meetings
Ohio State has won both of the last two meetings between these two teams.
The Buckeyes defeated Texas in the 2024 College Football Playoff, winning 28-14 on Jack Sawyer’s scoop-and-score touchdown to end the game. Ohio State then won the rematch the following regular season, 14-7, in Columbus.
This will be the first time the two programs face off in Austin since 2009, where Ohio State won 24-7.
The Longhorn’s last victory against the Buckeyes came in the 2009 Fiesta Bowl, a 24-21 victory in Glendale, Arizona.
Ohio State owns the edge in the all-time series, 3-2.
As the season goes along the Scarlet Spreadsheet for each Ohio State game will include up-to-date in-season models and analytics, breaking down each matchup down to the numbers and underlying metrics.
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