Alabama vs Florida State Prediction: What a Difference a Year Makes
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Memory dumped as the season went on, especially when it came time for the College Football Playoff committee to put together its final rankings, Alabama (2-0) looked like it was running in sand in a 31-17 loss to Florida State (1-1) to start 2025, and then everything changed.
The Seminoles started 3-0, lost seven of the last nine games, and now after losing the ACC opener to SMU, they need something splashy to turn the Mike Norvell era back around.
Meanwhile, Alabama ripped off eight straight wins after leaving Tallahassee, played in the SEC Championship, and got all the way to the quarterfinals of the College Football Playoff.
This season, the Tide started out red hot with blowout wins over decent East Carolina and Kentucky teams with a fun, explosive young attack that looks like it’ll do plenty of damage in SEC play.
But first, Alabama needs redemption.
Alabama vs Florida State: Quick Hits
- Only 300 miles apart, it’s just the seventh time these two have played. Alabama is 3-2-1. FSU won last year, with Alabama’s last win 24-7 to open up the 2017 season.
- Florida State gets a breather against Central Arkansas next week before getting back into ACC play against Virginia.
- This starts a run of three home games in four weeks, with South Carolina up next.
How To Watch Alabama vs Florida State
Date: Saturday, September 19, 2026
Game Time: 3:30 PM ET
TV: ABC
Location: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL
– Week 3 Schedule, Picks
– CFN Expert Picks: Week 3
Why Florida State Will Win
The home loss to SMU wasn’t great, but the running game was decent enough to keep some semblance of control.
This will sound like a knock, but it’s how the Seminoles have to try to pull this off. They couldn’t stop the SMU passing game and struggled to find any offensive consistency, but even with everything going wrong at times, they almost won. It took a late field goal for the Mustangs to put it away.
For all of the FSU defensive issues, it came up with four takeaways. Alabama gave it up three times against Kentucky.
Why Alabama Will Win
The Florida State defense has a problem tackling, and has a bigger overall issue against the pass. New Mexico State only throws, and it had little success. SMU’s Kevin Jennings went off, including when the team needed him the most.
Alabama’s offense hasn’t been consistent, but over the first two games it took off after needing a little while to warm up. The defense has been able to take care of the rest.
The Tide are No. 1 in the nation in third down stops, came up with a pick-six early on against the Wildcats, and pitched a shutout in the second half.
Alabama vs Florida State Prediction, Betting Lines
It’s not like there’s a massive revenge factor here – losing to Florida State wouldn’t be like dropping a big game to Auburn, or anything – but Alabama certainly will see this game as a measuring stick.
New year, new talent, new team, and with a strong performance on both sides of the ball, it’ll show that this version needs to be taken seriously.
Alabama 37, Florida State 13
Latest Consensus Line: Alabama -19.5, o/u: 48.5
ATS Confidence (out of 5): 2.5
Must See Rating (out of 5): 3.5
Consensus line based on BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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