UNM’s trip to No. 24 Oklahoma brings a big payout, but games like these are getting harder to schedule
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It’s the biggest opportunity of the year for the Lobos.
It’s also their biggest payout.
By playing a game at No. 24 Oklahoma, New Mexico’s football team will net $1.6 million for its athletic department, according to a contract between the two schools reviewed by the Journal.
Signed in November 2019, the contract for Saturday’s game at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman, Oklahoma stipulates that a partial payment of $250,000 needed to be made to UNM before April 21, 2021.
Oklahoma also allotted 400 complimentary tickets to UNM and presented it the opportunity to buy more at full price. UNM Athletic Director Ryan Berryman said the university sold out of the 800 tickets it purchased ahead of Saturday.
UNM’s game against Oklahoma is its latest “guarantee game,” a yearly staple on the schedule for Group of Six conference programs like the Lobos. The arrangement is simple: A school from a smaller conference or division agrees to play a one-off road game against an opponent from a higher conference or division in return for a guaranteed lump sum — and usually takes a loss, too.
The Lobos have already guaranteed games against two opponents — winning both — this year: Central Michigan ($200,000) and Football Championship Subdivision program Mercyhurst ($330,000).
But despite the prevalence of guarantee games — nearly every Group of Six (G6) program has one on its schedule — matchups such as UNM-Oklahoma are becoming increasingly difficult to schedule.
If nothing else, the pool of games to be scheduled is smaller than it used to be. Three of the Power Four (P4) conferences — the Big Ten, the Big 12 and the SEC — have all moved to nine-game conference schedules, eliminating dozens of opportunities for teams from conferences such as the Mountain West or Conference USA to land on P4 conference schedules.
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The ACC is planning on instituting a nine-game conference schedule in 2027. Like the SEC, the league is mandating that its members schedule another P4 opponent in one of their three available nonconference slots, one fewer game a G6 team could fill.
That doesn’t account for nonconference rivalry games a P4 program is incentivized to get on the schedule. Or a proclivity to schedule an FCS program over a G6 team.
The result? An inventory crunch for G6 athletic departments — UNM included — to schedule a guarantee game against a P4 opponent.
“We are continuing to monitor the ongoing schedule changes occurring across college football as College Football Playoff (CFP) expansion, conference realignment and changing conference scheduling models loom,” Berryman said in a statement to the Journal.
“Our ideal (scheduling) model, in the current state, is to schedule one FCS opponent at home, a guarantee game with a Power Four opponent on the road and a home-and-home series with a Group of Six opponent, opposite the New Mexico State series.”
Matt Brown is the publisher of Extra Points, a newsletter that covers the business of college athletics. While UNM has played guarantee games at Michigan ($1.8 million) and Auburn ($1.9 million) over the last two seasons, Brown believes P4 schools now have greater incentive to schedule G6 schools in their region.
“If you’re flying in Hawaii to Michigan or whoever to go be your (guarantee game) in week two,” he said, “it’s going to be a lot more expensive than getting Eastern Michigan.”
That trend would only compound the effects of conference realignment, especially for teams in the west. The demise of the Pac-12 as a power conference has sent all but two classic members to the Big Ten, the Big 12 and the ACC, where current and expected schedule mandates have already shrunk opportunities for guarantee games.
“For a school like New Mexico to secure a payday above $1.5 million, now you’re looking at Power Four schools moving to a nine-game schedule,” Brown said, “and there might only be, like, 10 or eight schools that would ever be interested in booking you to begin with.”
CFP expansion could also present additional challenges. Currently operating with a 12-team structure, the CFP opened a 30-day negotiating window last week with its television rights holder, ESPN, to evaluate a potential expansion to 24 teams.
Brown believes a 24-team playoff presents a more compelling case for P4 teams to schedule more aggressively — a development that likely wouldn’t favor the majority of G6 teams.
“If the financial impetus is to actually have more than 80% of your stadium full … then there’s an incentive to have more big games,” he said. “The problem with that — it’s great for the consumer, it’s great for the fans — but every time a big school is playing (another) big school, that’s one more week a big school is not playing New Mexico.”
A potential solution? With the exception of regular home-and-homes (one game at home, one game on the road), multi-game series scheduling has largely gone by the wayside. But Brown believes it might be in G6 teams’ best interest to try to bring those arrangements back.
“That would be something maybe New Mexico (and other G6 programs) might want to do, if (the CFP) moves to an expanded playoff,” he added. “Just say, ‘all right — we’re going to commit to getting bought by Houston (or another P4 program) three times’ or something, rather than hit the market every single time.”
In the event a G6 program couldn’t secure a guarantee game, missing one would be a “pain” for its athletic department budget, Brown said.
Could it be a bigger problem, especially for a department like UNM’s?
“To lose one of those would be meaningful,” Brown added. “But I wouldn’t classify that as an existential threat to the sustainability of New Mexico athletics.”
Sean Reider covers college football and other sports for the Journal. You can reach him at sreider@abqjournal.com or via X at @lenaweereider.
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