Week 4 college football odds, storylines: Best bets for the biggest games of an epic weekend

NCAAF College Football News, Photos, Stats, Scores, Schedule & Videos...

Things really started to heat up in Week 3 of college football, and a 3-1 effort for us last week gets us back above .500 (with even the strictest of grading practices). More importantly, on the field, big steps were taken both toward (and away from) conference championships and the College Football Playoff, but, my friends, you ain't seen nothing yet. 

Week 4 provides something of a "bangers-only" Saturday — all hits, no skips — with a half-dozen games to get excited about.

Here is my initial take on the five biggest games of the week, along with the usual stock up or down for a few teams.

In all the hullabaloo over Lane Kiffin's return to Oxford, the betting market forgot about the guy who virtually owns the Grove at the moment — Trinidad Chambliss. 

Ole Miss proved something that led us to a bet — that they never should have been a home underdog to LSU. Now the Rebels' odds mostly mirror the Tigers' for the SEC title (around 8-to-1), national championship (16-1), and "To Make the CFP" odds (around even-money). 

Meanwhile, Auburn couldn't get a stop against Florida, Mississippi State came back to win at South Carolina and Kentucky had the upset of the week in College Station, as the Gators, Bulldogs and Wildcats got much-coveted road wins in the SEC, and will be re-rated accordingly.

Miami (-240) still holds odds-on status in the ACC, but Louisville (+600) took the pole position for that conference's No. 2 spot with a win over SMU. Plus, their last-minute loss on a neutral field to Ole Miss looks better than ever. 

The ending of North Carolina State-Vanderbilt shook Wolfpack bettors to their very core, leading the day in the bad beat category. 

West Virginia was able to strike one for the Big 12 over ACC-contender Virginia, but most every other upset bid came up just short. That includes Friday night, as Texas Tech staved off Houston's upset effort, but another non-cover suggests that the Red Raiders need to be downgraded from a lofty perch as the preseason odds-on favorite in the Big 12.

This is the space for the big games of the week. Until teams take a loss or two, you never know what early-season game is going to end up mattering more than we initially thought. We still have very few in-season data points to go off, but there's enough market reaction (or lack thereof) to lead us to one side or another for the best games of Week 3.

No. 1 Texas (-5.5, 56.5) at No. 14 Tennessee

Despite October being around the corner, we still don't know much about Tennessee's high-end potential. The Volunteers' big preseason question mark — the quarterback position — seems to have been answered by Faizon Brandon's ability to run Josh Heupel's offense, but this game is the first referendum on the Vols' national-title capability. Mainly, because we already have a handle on the Longhorns' level, after their comeback win over Ohio State.

For a valuation comparison, the 2024 Vols, who made the CFP, ended the season with a market rating in the low-80s (out of 100). Last year's "disappointing" team finished in the mid-70s. 

With Texas firmly entrenched among the top teams nationally, the Longhorns being 3.5-point road favorites means the Vols' current rating is 79 — right in between 2024 and 2025's finishing evaluation. 

Bet the Tennessee Volunteers to cover the spread at sportsbooks

If Tennessee is as good as 2024's squad, who beat Alabama at home, they'll cover this number, but even the 2025 team lost close in similar home matchups to Georgia (by three in overtime) and Oklahoma (by six, despite out-gaining the Sooners by 100+ yards). 

It's not a night game in the SEC, but we'll bank on Neyland Stadium having more than an average home-field advantage, and fade the move up to -5.5. 

Bet: Tennessee +5.5 

Boise State (-7.5, 48.5) at Western Michigan

Knowing that Boise State already beat Memphis — the favorite in the American Conference, if these two go on to win the Pac-12 and MAC, respectively, this might be looked upon as a virtual play-in game in the CFP Committee room. 

Neither Broncos team looked pretty last week against inferior opponents, but even going back to last season's conference title run, WMU almost never looked all that handsome. Which is by design, as they'll drag any opponent into the virtual mud.

We rarely play a total, but given how poor Oregon's defense has looked this season, Western Michigan's might be the best Boise State has seen, and two run-heavy teams could have the clock running early and often.

Bet: Under 48.5 total points

No. 17 Iowa at No. 18 Michigan (-5.5, 38.5)

It's not like Michigan's market rating has been restored to where it was before the season, but a Week 2 win over Oklahoma saved some face. The problem is that the one game that brought the Wolverines back into the college football polls was an offensive performance of just 263 yards, and nine total pass completions. Sure, the Michigan defense won the game for those wringing their hands in The Big House, but Oklahoma's offense hasn't shown anything elsewhere. 

Now, Iowa's lone game-of-interest (the CyHawk) wasn't exactly a shootout — 284 yards in a 16-13 win — but the point is that this is a meeting between two teams that will wallow in the mire. Iowa's senior quarterback, Hank Brown, can run the Hawkeyes' offensive schemes, and with every point being that much more valuable, we'll take Iowa in a close one that should also turn on a turnover.

Bet:Iowa +5.5

No. 4 Ole Miss at No. 21 Florida (-3.5, 60.5)

After winning the Kiffin Bowl last Saturday, getting up for another big game — this time on the road — is a tall task for the Rebels. However, making Florida a favorite of any amount, let alone over a field goal, is implying that the Gators' win at Auburn was the impressive one. 

Ole Miss came into the season with a market power rating on the level of fellow second-tier contenders in the SEC: Alabama, Texas A&M and, yes, LSU. When LSU beat Clemson handily, its rating went up, creating a scenario where the Rebels were home 'dogs. Now it's the Gators' turn to get a bump, up into that tier, and after home-field advantage is applied, here we are. 

Bet Ole Miss to cover the spread at sportsbooks right now

Apparently, the Rebels get no such upgrade for a second major win this season.

If that's because this game is in a hostile environment, the Swamp is already built into this number. If it's due to the expectation that Chambliss and Co. won't play as well, they may not have to against a Florida defense that allowed 39 points to Auburn. 

Bet: Ole Miss +3.5

No. 24 Oklahoma at No. 2 Georgia (-13.5, 43.5)

Referring back to our bets from this summer's lookahead line article: 

In Week 2, we had a slightly worse number and won anyway with Iowa State, and in Week 3, we had a ton of closing line value and all numbers cashed on Houston, anyway. 

This week, the situation is more former than latter. The betting market has soured on Oklahoma after the Sooners not only lost to Michigan, but their offensive woes kept them vulnerable to New Mexico last week; never threatening to cover a big number at home. 

While a loss is a loss, it wasn't the Sooners fault that they were favored by five points on the road at Michigan. That was due to the Wolverines' poor Week 1 performance, not an overrating of Oklahoma. 

Upgrade to Fantasy Plus and gain your edge in player projections and much more

Georgia came into the season rated among the best teams in the country, and nothing's changed through three games against inferior competition, so the shift from UGA -10 to UGA -13.5 is entirely based on the market selling of OU. 

The Sooners' offense hasn't been pretty, but it wasn't a thing of beauty last season when much of this core went on the road and won at South Carolina, Alabama and Tennessee. If you haven't already, a bet on a close game is the way to play this one, but going on the hunt for a +14 this week is advisable.

Bet: Oklahoma +14 (shop for -120 odds or cheaper)

No. 20 Oregon (-2.5, 62.5) at No. 12 USC

This conference showdown got bigger with Oregon's loss to Oklahoma State two weeks ago, because of how short a leash the Ducks have in the national tiotle picture now. 

We can't take anything from Friday's 84-0 win over Portland State, but it's hard to imagine the Ducks have revamped their defense in the two weeks since the Cowboys racked up 554 yards on them. A road game against the explosive USC offense, and Heisman candidate Jayden Maiava (1173 passing yards, 12 TDs), isn't exactly easing an underachieving unit into Big Ten play. 

Luckily for Oregon, the Ducks have the offense that can keep up with the Trojans, and USC's unit — as is the case annually — might leave something to be desired. Rutgers, a legitimate laughingstock so far this season, had 460 yards in a 42-35 USC win — the third of four Trojans' games this season that's cleared this total. So, we're back on another total, looking for shootout.

 Bet: Over 62.5 total points

You can find more valuable betting analysis from Yahoo! Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW. 

More at NCAAF College Football News, Photos, Stats, Scores, Schedule & Videos