2026 Week 4 Preview: Missouri State Bears @ SMU Mustangs
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Game notes
- Time and date: Saturday, September 26 at 9:00 p.m. ET
- Network: ACC Network
- Location: Gerald J. Ford Stadium — Dallas, TX
- Spread: SMU (-34.5)
- Over/under: 59.5
- All-time series: SMU leads, 1-0
- Last meeting: SMU 28, Missouri State 10 — September 13, 2025
- Current streak: SMU, 1 (2025)
Setting the scene
All eyes are on Casey Woods in his homecoming.
Woods landed a head coaching position at Missouri State this offseason, and his work at SMU helped get him there. He spent four seasons as the Mustangs’ offensive coordinator under Rhett Lashlee, finishing top-12 nationally in scoring offense three times.
“I spent the last four years as the offensive coordinator at SMU,” Woods said in his weekly press conference. “My wife and I had a great experience in Dallas. I don’t have a closer friend in this business than Rhett Lashlee… But at the end of the day, this game is not about me. It’s an opportunity for Missouri State to go play on national television in front of a great audience, in front of a great crowd in a great venue against a great football team.”
Now Woods lines up on the opposite side of Lashlee, looking to upset his former mentor.
“It’s interesting. It’s weird for both of us,” Lashlee said in his weekly press conference. “I don’t have brothers, but if I did, he’d be one of the few guys in my life that’s like a brother… It’s his fourth game. It’s my 58th game. I’ve had the opportunity to go against former coaches and friends and all of that. So I’ve had some experience with that. I don’t like playing friends because somebody’s gonna lose.”
Woods isn’t the only connection between the programs. Last September, Missouri State hosted SMU for its first-ever FBS home game and secured a 10-0 lead heading into the second quarter, before the Mustangs rallied back. The Bears eye another upset bid, and this time, the head coaches know the ins and outs of each other’s systems.
Missouri State Bears outlook
Missouri State (1-2, 0-0 CUSA) is still looking for its first FBS win under Casey Woods. The Bears were a longshot to win at Texas A&M in Week 1, but they dropped a winnable matchup in Week 3 to Marshall. Missouri State picked up 506 yards of offense in the 30-24 loss. However, the inability to finish drives ultimately did them in.
The Bears kicked field goals from the 8-yard line and the 5-yard line. And right after the 2-minute timeout, they failed a 4th-and-goal from the Marshall 7-yard line, with the go-ahead touchdown within reach. Missouri State’s 70 percent red zone scoring rate is tied for 125th in the country, and that will be the No. 1 emphasis for Woods and his staff moving forward.
The offense was shut out in Week 1, but the unit has excelled since. Skyler Locklear is coming off one of his best college performances. The former UTEP starting quarterback delivered 309 passing yards, two touchdowns, and 53 rushing yards against Marshall, proving the extent of his dual-threat abilities. His offensive line — which has only allowed two sacks all year — remained sturdy. Locklear received strong support from Ramone Green Jr. in the backfield and Isaiah Myers in the receiving game.
Myers has been the breakout star of the offense. The former Charlotte and WKU receiver currently ranks 17th in the FBS with 296 receiving yards, and all 296 were within the last two weeks. Longtime Missouri State receiver Jmariyae Robinson, who posted 70 yards from scrimmage on the Mustangs in 2025, is another lethal weapon to watch on this offense.
Longtime defensive coordinator Jack Curtis — with previous stops including Arkansas State, Georgia Southern, and Tulane — leads a unit which seeks week to week improvement. The Bears are 116th and 125th in run defense through a short sample size. Marshall particularly picked about Missouri State on the ground last week, generating 267 rushing yards with an effective quarterback run game.
Last season, the Bears’ defense held SMU scoreless on the first five possessions, forcing turnovers on the first two series. Missouri State has just one interception through three games thus far — courtesy of inside linebacker Jashawn Cooper — and the defensive backs will look to capitalize on errant throws.
The main player to watch on defense also resides at inside linebacker. Jared Lloyd had three tackles and a sack in this matchup last September, and the 6’3”, 240 pound senior has advanced his game even farther with 32 tackles, three tackles for loss, and a sack already in 2026.
SMU Mustangs outlook
SMU (2-1, 1-1 ACC) returns home after a challenging September slate which featured two conference road matchups. The Mustangs split the two games, fortunate to escape Florida State unscathed after finishing a minus-3 in the turnover battle. However, they weren’t as lucky last Saturday at Louisville with another minus-3 showing.
Turnovers are the kryptonite to an otherwise dominant SMU offense. The Mustangs are fifth in the country in yards per game (537.0), eighth in yards per play (7.94), second in passing offense (368.7), and first in plays spanning at least 40 yards (9). There have been virtually zero problems with moving the ball downfield, and SMU has only punted seven times through three games. But they’re a minus-6 in the turnover battle this year, with the lone takeaway coming on Florida State’s last-ditch lateral attempt.
SMU is loaded at nearly every position on offense, with third-year starting quarterback Kevin Jennings running the show. Jennings ranks third nationally with 329.7 passing yards per game and fourth in yards per attempt at 11.4. He’s been slinging it efficiently too, currently owning the 11th-highest completion rate of quarterbacks with at least 15 attempts per game, connecting on 73.6 percent of passes. However, he has thrown four interceptions — one away from the FBS-high — after tying for the third-most interceptions in the country in 2025.
Limit turnovers, and SMU’s offense has few weaknesses. New transfer running back Kendrick Raphael is fresh off a 197-yard, 3-touchdown explosion, and he’s racking up 7.1 yards per carry. Five different receivers have at least 100 yards on the season, and three of them — Yannick Smith, Jalen Hale, and Jalen Cooper — are certified home-run threats averaging at least 20 yards per reception. Veteran Mustang receiver Yamir Knight and tight end Randy Pittman Jr. round out that bunch as reliable, short-yardage threats.
The Mustangs have generally enjoyed strong offensive line play as well, headlined by All-ACC left tackle PJ Williams. They also expect to return right tackle Andrew Chamblee, who left the Louisville game with an injury.
Defensively, SMU showed some struggles against the run game in both ACC matchups, especially against Louisville. The Mustangs are currently 111th in rushing defense, and they’re one of two FBS teams to surrender at least three 50-yard breakaway runs this year. SMU is still restructuring its front after losing every defensive line starter from last year. Aakil Washington and Ira Singleton IV are the primary defensive ends the Mustangs will rely upon to prevent another running back field day.
The team has been much stronger in the secondary compared to 2025, but forcing turnovers has been an issue thus far. South Florida transfer nickel Jarvis Lee could be the spark that gets this going. A frequent blitzer from the secondary, he forced three fumbles and picked off two passes with the Bulls last fall.
Prediction
Rhett Lashlee and Casey Woods finally line up on opposite sidelines. Last year, Missouri State wouldn’t go down easily against both coaches, but SMU ultimately settled in offensively and scored 28 unanswered after a 10-0 first quarter deficit.
This year, the matchup won’t likely be as close. SMU’s offense is among the most dangerous, explosive, and versatile in the country. Simply put, the Mustangs should have no problem finding the end zone on nearly every first half possession against the Bears, which have already surrendered 50 in a game this season.
SMU bounces back after the Week 3 letdown and starts its four-game homestand with a comfortable victory.
Prediction: SMU 49, Missouri State 17
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