Texas vs Tennessee Prediction: Odds, expert picks, team and player news, betting trends, and stats

The SEC has a prize fight on its hands when the #1 ranked Texas Longhorns going to Knoxville to take on the #14 ranked Tennessee Vols at Neyland Stadium. Texas is a -4.5 point road favorite with a game total of 55.5 for this rare meeting. The last time these programs met was at the 1969 Cotton Bowl! This will be just the fourth-ever meeting between Texas and Tennessee.

Tennessee enters fresh off a 42-9 throbbing off Kennesaw State. The Vols have scored at least 42 points in all three games and averaged 510.3 yards per game (T-14th). The offense is led by five-star true freshman QB Faizon Brandon and veteran RB DeSean Bishop. Bishop cracked 1,000 rushing yards last year and has four touchdowns and 316 total yards through three games, while Brandon has taken the country by storm with nine total touchdowns and almost 700 yards. Brandon will face his toughest test of his early career after Georgia Tech proved to be a side quest (45-24 win). We will get an even better idea of how good the Vols defense is. Last year, Tennessee held opponents to 29.8 points per game (92nd) and 31.0 at home! This year, Tennessee has allowed 14.0 points per game (26th) to Furman, Georgia Tech, and Kennesaw State.

Texas was on cruise control against UTSA and didn't have to pull out any tricks to win 30-6. The Longhorns are about to begin a devastating stretch of seven ranked opponents over the next nine games. Texas will be on the road the next two weeks (Tennessee, Oklahoma), then have three-straight at home before going on the road three of the final four games. So far, Texas beating Ohio State pretty much guarantees them in the playoffs unless they go 9-3 or worse, which is difficult to see with all the talent this Longhorns team has. The defense allows 12.0 points per game (17th) and under 300 yards per outing, while the offense is well-balanced behind Arch Manning. Texas lost their SEC-opener 29-21 at Florida last year and went 0-5 against the spread as the road team last year. Let's see how Texas performs on the road this year!

Let’s dive into the schools on both sides of the ball, look at a few key players, and see where the numbers take us.

Game Details and How to Watch Texas vs Tennessee

• Date: Saturday, September 26, 2026
• Time: 12:00 PM Eastern
• Site: Neyland Stadium
• City: Knoxville, TN
• TV/Streaming: ABC

Game Odds for Texas vs Tennessee

The latest odds as of Thursday courtesy of DraftKings:

• Moneyline: Texas Longhorns (-198), Tennessee Vols (+164)
• Spread: Texas -4.5 (-112)
• Total: 55.5 points

#1 Texas Longhorns

Head Coach: Steve Sarkisian
2026 Record: 3-0 (0-0)
Offensive Points Per Game: 37.7 (T-42nd)
Defensive Points Per Game: 12.0 (17th)
2026 Strength of Schedule: 21st
2026 Remaining Strength of Schedule: 5th

The Texas Longhorns Offense:

Against UTSA, Texas put up 400 yards of offense, had 27 first downs, a 7-of-17 mark on third downs, and 231 rushing yards. The Longhorns had four players carry the ball at least 10 times and five with seven-plus rushing attempts. Arch Manning only threw for 161 yards, but tossed two touchdowns to Cam Coleman. Texas started quick with three-straight scoring drives and jumped out to a 17-3 lead and led 20-3 at the half. Across five road games last year, Texas scored 31 total points in the first half and scored more than seven points once. We'll see if Texas can shake those bad vibes in 2026 at Tennessee.

Texas Player to Watch on Offense: QB Arch Manning

Manning completed 16-of-32 passes for 161 yards and two touchdowns, plus 10 rushing attempts for 53 yards. His 30.7 QBR was the worst of the season and third-worst since the start of last year. Manning has also stayed under 200 yards passing in back-to-back games for the second time since the start of last year. As a starter, he's never stayed under 200 passing yards in three consecutive games.

The Texas Longhorns Defense:

Texas held UTSA to 70 passing yards and 3.0 yards per pass on 14-of-23 passing. The Road Runners run game wasn't much better with 72 rushing yards on 24 carries (3.0 ypc). The Longhorns defense faced 12 drives from the Road Runners and forced eight punts and one interception. Since halftime of the Ohio State game, the Texas defense has allowed nine points over six quarters.

Texas Player to Watch on Defense: LB Colin Simmons

Colin Simmons has back-to-back games with sacks and is looking to make it three-straight for the second time in his career. To end last season, Simmons went on a five-game sack streak! So, over the last eight games, he has seven sacks, one in seven of eight games. Simmons recorded multi-sack games in two games in 2025 and two more in 2024 — he's still searching for his first game of two-plus sacks in 2026.

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#14 Tennessee Vols

Head Coach: Josh Heupel
2026 Record: 3-0 (0-0)
Offensive Points Per Game: 47.7 (T-7th)
Defensive Points Per Game: 14.0 (26th)
2026 Strength of Schedule: 104th
2026 Remaining Strength of Schedule: 12th

The Tennessee Vols Offense:

Tennessee had 447 offensive yards against Georgia Tech and 45 points, then followed that up with 446 yards and 42 points versus Kennesaw State. The Vols have been consistent and once again, have a high-powered offense led by a dual-threat quarterback and talented running back. True freshman Faison Brandon will make his first SEC start, so we can expect heavy dosages of DeSean Bishop to alleviate the pressure. Bishop has ran for 97, 147, and 42 yards through three games with four total touchdowns. Bishop totaled 1,076 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns last year. Tennessee will need to get him going early if they want success against Texas.

Tennessee Player to Watch on Offense: QB Faison Brandon 

Faison Brandon, the five-star true freshman quarterback, will have a task ahead of him. Texas can create pressure with just four, they have an excellent secondary, and athletic linebackers. They are like no team that Brandon has faced yet. However, the Greensboro, NC native has been elite through three games. Brandon has thrown for six touchdowns and 552 yards, plus ran for another three scorers and 137 yards. Brandon went 10-of-21 passing (47.6%) against Georgia Tech, his only P4 competition, and had 22 rushing yards on only five carries, so there is some concern ahead of facing the No. 1 ranked team in the country.

The Tennessee Vols Defense:

Tennessee held Kennesaw State to 291 yards of offense and nine penalties for 90 yards. The Vols defense has forced five turnovers in three games, including a fumble recovery against Kennesaw State. The Vols rank 42nd in total defense (289.0 ypg), have the 80th-ranked third down defense (39%), and 20th in passing yards allowed (151.0).

Tennessee Player to Watch on Defense: LB Edwin Spillman

Edwin Spillman has back-to-back games of five tackles and is coming off forcing and recovering a fumble against Kennesaw State. Spillman had a sack in the season-opener after posting a career-high 2.5 sacks and 81 tackles last year. Spillman led the Vols in tackles and ranks tied for third to start the year.

Spillman also has a back story that makes you want to root for the guy. He was born in Sierra Leone and adopted by an American Family after losing his father. Spillman ended up playing high school ball at Trent Dilfer's Lipscomb Academy in Nashville, TN as a four-star. He's now projected as a day two to day three pick in the 2027 NFL Draft.

Tennessee and Texas Team Stats, Betting Trends

• Texas is 1-2 ATS and 2-1 to the Under
• Tennessee is 1-2 ATS and 2-1 to the Under
• Texas as an NCAA-worst 0-5 ATS as a road team last year and 0-3 ATS as a road favorite
• Texas was 3-2 to the Under on the road last year but 2-1 to the Over as a road favorite
• Tennessee is 0-2 ATS at home and went 2-5 ATS last year
• As a home underdog, Tennessee is 3-1 ATS since 2022 and 2-2 on the total
• Texas is 6-3-1 to the Under in the last 10 games as a road favorite
• Texas is 2-5 ATS in the last seven as a road favorite
• Tennessee was 1-3 ATS versus ranked opponents last year and 10-11 ATS since 2021
• Texas is 13-16-2 ATS versus ranked opponents since 2021

Rotoworld Best Bets

Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports) leans the first half Over 27.5 in Texas at Tennessee:

"It'll only be a matter of time before Texas disrupts true freshman QB Faizon Brandon's confidence and eliminates the passing attack. Deshaun Bishop is a fantastic running back, but the Longhorns have no problem stacking the box and forcing Brandon to beat them.

The first quarter total is set at 11.5 and the first half total at 27.5 both juiced to the Over. I see both teams throwing punches early with explosive plays and deep shots before the Longhorns defensive adjustments at halftime wear down the Vols. I like the first half over 27.5 and if Tennessee keeps it close at the half, I will likely live bet Texas."

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