College football Week 4 best bets and score predictions for Texas-Tennessee, Oklahoma-Georgia
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No. 1 Texas makes its first road trip of the season to Tennessee in college football Week 4. Five of these seven spread picks back the underdog, including Northwestern getting 21 points at Indiana on Friday night.
Texas is a 4-point favorite at Neyland Stadium, where President Donald Trump will attend. No. 12 USC gets 3 points at home against No. 20 Oregon, and No. 19 Missouri gets 6.5 points at No. 24 Mississippi State. Hat tip to Game On Paper for providing a lot of the advanced stats and matchup data.
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Northwestern (+21) vs. Indiana
- Kickoff: Friday, September 25, 8 p.m. ET, Fox
No. 5 Indiana beat North Texas, Howard and Western Kentucky by a combined 145-16. Its defense posted shutouts in the last two of those games. Hoosiers quarterback Josh Hoover has completed 37 of 51 passes for 649 yards, 10 touchdowns and no interceptions.
Still, Indiana coach Curt Cignetti defended his quarterback on Monday. “I think there is too much scrutiny on Josh Hoover right now,” Cignetti said.
Northwestern is 2-0. It beat South Dakota State and then beat Colorado 41-7, forcing four turnovers in the win. Wildcats quarterback Aidan Chiles, a Michigan State transfer, has completed 67% of his passes under offensive coordinator Chip Kelly. He hasn’t thrown an interception.
“He’s a really quality player,” Cignetti said.
Northwestern also runs for more than 200 yards per game. A team that protects the ball and runs the clock can stay within 21 points, and that same style points to the under 49.5.
Picks: Indiana 27-20, Northwestern +21, U49.5
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Texas (-4) vs. Tennessee
- Kickoff: Saturday, September 26, 12 p.m. ET, ABC
Texas quarterback Arch Manning wears No. 16 for the No. 1 Longhorns in Knoxville. That’s the number his uncle, Peyton Manning, made famous at Tennessee, and the school has retired it. College GameDay will be on site. Texas is 3-0. It won 24-23 over Ohio State after a 20-point fourth-quarter comeback and then beat UTSA 30-6. This is only the fourth meeting between the programs, and the first three all came in the Cotton Bowl.
No. 14 Tennessee is also 3-0 behind quarterback Faizon Brandon and a deep group of running backs. However, the Volunteers have allowed 414 rushing yards to Furman, Georgia Tech and Kennesaw State.
Texas edge rusher Colin Simmons is probable after leaving the UTSA game with a foot injury. Defensive lineman Justus Terry and nickel back Xavier Filsaime are out, and running back Hollywood Smothers is questionable.
Tennessee coach Josh Heupel said Manning has “really good command and control of what’s going on.”
That poise on the road and the stronger run defense make Texas worth laying 4 points. Two teams that lean on the run point to the under 55.5.
Picks: Texas 32-21, Texas -4, U55.5
Illinois (+26.5) vs. Ohio State
- Kickoff: Saturday, September 26, 12 p.m. ET, Fox
No. 7 Ohio State opens Big Ten play after a 24-23 loss at Texas and a 59-3 win over Kent State. Buckeyes quarterback Julian Sayin completed 18 of 22 passes against the Golden Flashes. Receiver Jeremiah Smith has caught 21 of his 56 completions this season. But Ohio State averaged only 3.8 yards per carry against Kent State and is just 12 of 33 on third down.
Ohio State coach Ryan Day said the Buckeyes have to get better on third down “fast.”
Illinois is 2-1 under coach Bret Bielema after a 31-27 home loss to Duke and a 48-10 win over Southern Illinois. Illini quarterback Katin Houser leads an offense that ranks first in the country in passing success rate. Ohio State has won 10 straight in this series, including a 34-16 win in Champaign last year.
Still, a Buckeyes team that can’t run the ball will have trouble building a four-touchdown lead. Ohio State’s defense ranks fifth nationally in pass efficiency allowed, and that points to the under 53.5.
Picks: Ohio State 38-13, Illinois +26.5, U53.5
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Oklahoma vs. Georgia (-14)
- Kickoff: Saturday, September 26, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Oklahoma fell out of the AP Top 25 after a 17-10 loss at Michigan and a 14-6 win over New Mexico. The Sooners ran for 61 yards on 32 carries against the Lobos, and quarterback John Mateer threw two interceptions. Fans chanted for offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle to be fired.
“I wouldn’t say it went very well,” Mateer said.
Oklahoma coach Brent Venables has a defense that ranks second in the country in success rate allowed. No opponent has gained more than 263 yards against it. However, star defensive lineman David Stone hurt his knee in practice Monday, and his status for Athens is unclear.
No. 2 Georgia has scored at least 45 points and gained more than 450 yards in every game. Georgia coach Kirby Smart called the Sooners’ defense “violent” this week. Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton and the Bulldogs should wear down an offense that can’t run the ball. Even so, the Oklahoma defense keeps this under 44.5.
Picks: Georgia 28-10, Georgia -14, U44.5
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South Carolina (+12.5) vs. Alabama
- Kickoff: Saturday, September 26, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN
South Carolina blew a 16-point lead in a 41-34 home loss to Mississippi State last week. Gamecocks quarterback LaNorris Sellers threw two interceptions, and fans chanted “Fire Beamer” during the game.
“LaNorris needs to play better. We all need to play better,” coach Shane Beamer said.
No. 8 Alabama is 3-0 and has scored at least 45 points in every game. Crimson Tide quarterback Keelon Russell threw for 330 yards and three touchdowns in a 50-36 win over Florida State. But the Tide trailed early, and their defense allowed 36 points. South Carolina is tied for fourth in the country in rushing success rate, so the Gamecocks can move the ball on the ground.
Alabama won the last two meetings by 2 points and 7 points. Two quarterbacks who can run make South Carolina +12.5 and the over 53.5 the right plays.
Picks: Alabama 31-24, South Carolina +12.5, O53.5
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Oregon vs. USC (+3)
- Kickoff: Saturday, September 26, 7:30 p.m. ET, NBC
No. 20 Oregon lost 39-31 at Oklahoma State in Week 2 and then beat Portland State 84-0. Ducks quarterback Dante Moore went 14 of 29 for 191 yards in Stillwater, and the Oregon line has allowed seven sacks. Oregon will also play without wide receiver Jeremiah McClellan.
Oregon coach Dan Lanning said the rivalry is “as intense as it gets.”
No. 12 USC is 4-0 after a 42-35 win at Rutgers. Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava leads the country with 1,173 passing yards and has 12 touchdowns against one interception. His line has allowed just two sacks, and USC hasn’t scored fewer than 39 points in any game. Still, the Trojans’ defense gave up 460 yards to Rutgers, and Oregon allowed 554 yards at Oklahoma State.
Two shaky defenses point to the over 62.5. USC coach Lincoln Riley’s team should also keep this within a field goal at the Coliseum.
Picks: Oregon 34-33, USC +3, O62.5
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Missouri (+6.5) vs. Mississippi State
- Kickoff: Saturday, September 26, 7:45 p.m. ET, SEC Network
No. 24 Mississippi State is ranked for the first time since 2022. The Bulldogs came back from 16 points down to beat South Carolina 41-34. Quarterback Kamario Taylor went 18 of 26 for 251 yards, four touchdowns and one interception in Columbia.
Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz praised Mississippi State coach Jeff Lebby for bringing Taylor along last season. “What Coach Lebby did last year is pretty ingenious,” Drinkwitz said.
No. 19 Missouri is 3-0, but its offense struggled in a 27-17 win over Troy. Tigers quarterback Austin Simmons went 10 of 19 for 91 yards, and star running back Ahmad Hardy is doubtful. The Missouri defense is the reason to take the points, because it ranks second in the country in pass efficiency allowed. The Tigers also lead the nation in net field position.
Mississippi State hasn’t beaten an SEC team at home since 2022. Missouri will lean on its defense after a shaky start, and that points to the under 58.5.
Picks: Mississippi State 30-24, Missouri +6.5, U58.5
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