Navy vs. Memphis Prediction and Game Preview
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Memphis hosts Navy on Thanksgiving night for a crucial game for positioning in the American Conference in Week 14 of the 2025 college football season. The Midshipmen don’t control their own destiny in the American Conference title picture, but coach Brian Newberry’s squad needs a win over the Tigers to keep those hopes alive as the rest of the slate plays out Friday and Saturday.
In order for Navy to play for the American Conference title next Friday, Newberry’s team needs a win over Memphis, combined with a loss by Tulane or North Texas. Considering the Green Wave and Mean Green are heavy favorites, odds of a trip to the conference championship are slim. However, if the Midshipmen win on Thursday night, combined with a victory over Army on Dec. 13, the program can record its second season of double-digit victories in three years. After a 7-0 start this season, Newberry’s team stumbled a bit as it ran into tougher competition with losses to North Texas (31-17) and Notre Dame (49-10). However, the Nov. 15 victory over South Florida (41-38) allowed this team to stay in the American title race.
With wins over Arkansas and South Florida, Memphis seemed like the class of the American Conference entering November. However, the Tigers fell out of contention for the conference title and a spot in the College Football Playoff after back-to-back losses to Tulane (38-32) and East Carolina (31-27). Despite the recent setbacks, a win on Thursday night would lift Memphis to 9-3, marking its third consecutive season of nine or more victories.
Memphis holds a 6-4 series edge over Navy. The Tigers have won five out of the last six in this series, including the last four played in Memphis.
Navy vs. Memphis Odds and Info
Location: Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium, Memphis, Tenn.
Kickoff: Thursday, Nov. 27 at 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Spread: Memphis -3.5
Over/Under: 57.5
Announcers: Matt Barrie, Tom Luginbill, Harry Lyles Jr.
Navy vs. Memphis Keys to Victory
1. Navy QB Blake Horvath
Navy’s offense enters Thursday night’s game ranked third in the American Conference in yards per play (7.2) and fifth in scoring (32.9 points a game). Quarterback Blake Horvath is the catalyst for this attack, as the senior leads the conference in rushing yards per game (109.6) to pilot an offense that is among the most efficient in the nation (No. 12 in success rate). Horvath has rushed for over 100 yards in six of his nine appearances this season, and the Ohio native has also been effective through the air with 1,290 yards and eight scores. His 10.6 average yards per attempt would rank first in the American Conference if he had enough passes to qualify.
Horvath was banged up in Navy’s Nov. 15 win over South Florida, but the extra time to prepare should help the recovery process. The senior torched Memphis last season by posting 403 total yards and six scores in a 56-44 win by the Midshipmen. However, the Tigers lead the American in rush defense and limit teams to just 3.8 yards per carry.
Can Memphis find a way to slow down Horvath and backfield mates in Alex Tecza (6.3 yards a carry) and Eli Heindenreich (7.1)?
2. Can Navy Slow the Memphis Offense?
Quarterback Brendon Lewis has been banged up down the stretch for Memphis, but this offense has still scored 30 or more points in eight of the team’s 11 games this year. Lewis has passed for 2,395 yards and 13 scores and added another 582 yards and nine touchdowns on the ground. Having extra time to heal should help Lewis’ dual-threat ability return, while running backs Sutton Smith (644 yards) and Greg Desrosiers (538) will test a Navy defense that ranks fifth in the American against the run.
Although the Midshipmen have been solid against the run, a deeper look at the numbers shows signs of concern. Navy ranks 12th in the American in yards per play allowed (6.2) and eighth in the conference in points allowed (27.9). Additionally, this unit is suspect against the pass (No. 121 in success rate).
With Lewis likely closer to 100 percent, along with a handful of weapons in the receiving corps headlined by Cortez Braham (59 catches for 824 yards), Navy’s defense will have its hands full in one of its tougher matchups of the season. Can the Midshipmen find a way to slow down Lewis, Smith, and Desrosiers, and Braham? Or will the Tigers simply have too much firepower?
3. Turnovers
With the spread hovering around a field goal, along with an over/under of nearly 60 points, this game could come down to a possession or a make-or-break drive in the fourth quarter. Both Navy and Memphis simply have too much firepower to be held in check all game, so the two defenses have to find a way to get timely stops and generate takeaways. The Midshipmen (plus-two) and Tigers (plus-eight) are both on the positive side of the turnover battle in ‘25. Also, both have lost only 10 turnovers this season.
Could a takeaway or two be the deciding factor in this crucial American Conference matchup?
Final Score Prediction: Memphis 33, Navy 30
Navy has more at stake entering Thursday night’s game, but Memphis has an edge on the matchup front. With extra time for Lewis to heal, along with a defense that thrives at stopping the run, Silverfield’s team will escape with a close victory on Thanksgiving night.
ATS: Navy +3.5
Over/Under: Over 57.5
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This story was originally published by Athlon Sports on Nov 27, 2025, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add Athlon Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
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