Clemson vs Cal Prediction, Pick, College Football Odds for Friday, September 25

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The Clemson Tigers take on the Cal Golden Bears in Berkeley, CA. Kickoff is set for 10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Clemson is favored by -1.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -110. The total is set at 50.5 points.

Here’s my Clemson vs. Cal prediction and college football pick for Friday, September 25, 2026.

My Cal vs. Clemson best bet is on Cal to go under its team total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page, and download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.

Clemson vs Cal Odds

• Clemson vs Cal point spread: Clemson -1.5 (-102), Cal +1.5 (-120)
• Clemson vs Cal over/under: 50.5 (-110o / -110u)
• Clemson vs Cal moneyline: Clemson -110, Cal -110

If it weren’t for a two-and-a-half-hour lightning delay, Clemson might be starting 1-2 with a 41-point blowout loss to LSU and a home loss to North Carolina.

Down 17-15, Clemson’s offense sputtered out for a third week in a row despite the change from Christopher Vizzina to Tait Reynolds at QB. You can even pinpoint the weather delay in the following EPA chart:

…and win expectancy.

But we don’t live in the land of if, and Clemson brings a 2-1 record — and a whole lot of recent momentum — into its Friday night game at Cal.

Reynolds is clearly the superior quarterback, and even with the injury, Dabo Swinney was making the switch. But red zone issues plague this team, and that’s a play-caller issue.

“New” OC Chad Morris has led Clemson to touchdowns on just 33% of red zone drives so far this season, third-to-worst in the country.

The other major concern comes up front. In both games against power-conference foes, Clemson’s defensive line has been manhandled in the run game, giving up 3.5 line yards per carry and three 100+ yard rushers.

Swinney has been under a lot of scrutiny and, after a few years of failing to meet expectations, the wheels on this team could fall completely off. It likely would’ve been this past week if not for the fourth-quarter comeback.

Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele took the college football world by storm last year, gave new head coach Tosh Lupoi his first recruiting win by remaining at Cal, and came into this year with a ton of buzz.

But with that buzz came lofty projections for Cal, especially as it added two strong receivers in the portal, Chase Hendricks and Ian Strong. We haven’t seen those lofty projections hit, though.

Last year, Cal’s offense finished 74th in points per drive and, against FBS competition this year, it’s been far below average (94th).

Cal’s Week 2 win over Syracuse came with a 45% postgame win expectancy (per SP+) and benefited from Syracuse QB Steve Angeli turning the ball over three times and getting benched. The offense managed just 14 points, half of them coming on a short 30-yard field after an interception.

At some point, we have to separate Sagapolutele projections from what the offense is actually showing us. Currently, it’s bad news in Berkeley.

Cal’s defense has been serviceable — at times even pretty darn good — even with a 45-point outing on its hands (UCLA scored 21 in the fourth quarter, twice on short fields after interceptions and once on a 53-yard rushing explosive).

It needs to get off the field more often on third down, but this is a dependable unit as long as the offense doesn’t surrender short fields off turnovers.

Depending on when you bet, you can get plus odds on either side. For those looking to back Cal at home, the line opened short (+1.5) in a lukewarm 50.5-point total.

Clemson travels out to Berkeley for its first West Coast conference matchup ever and does so on a short travel week (Cal was at home last week). The Tigers return home in Week 5 for a huge game against Miami, making this a potential lookahead spot.

Swinney isn’t coaching for his job here, either – he’s still owed $57 million if fired this calendar year, and he’s likely going out on his own terms with two of the program’s three national championships.

That cross-country travel and coming off an emotional comeback win could spell a recipe for a total flat spot.

Take a survey of Cal’s offensive output in Week 2: 14 offensive points and one touchdown drive of more than 30 yards. Red-zone scoring has been poor this year (61.5% touchdown rate, 78th), and Clemson still fields a top-50 passing defense.

Despite the betting line, a win here would definitely play like an upset given recent program caliber, and I expect JKS to shoulder much of the weight to get it done.

When not totally overmatched (see: LSU), Clemson’s red zone defense has been decent and could be strong if Lupoi forces the issue with JKS. The Tigers held North Carolina to two critical red zone field goals last week.

I don’t trust Clemson’s offense enough to back the Tigers outright, so I’ll take a more isolated fade of Cal’s offense.

Pick: Cal Team Total Under 24.5 (-115, FanDuel)

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