Mountain West & Pac-12 Bowl Projections Week 4: Patterns are starting to emerge.
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The time has come. The 2026 season is upon us. We are past the time of watch lists and preseason awards and have entered the time of bowl projections. Our team at Mountain West Connection will be releasing our bowl projections each week. This season, both Mountain West and Pac-12 projections will be included in the same post. Our first round of projections are below and will likely change as the season progresses. Leave your own thoughts in the comments.
Note that bowl tie-ins are extremely messy this year, more than usual. Due to that, it’s difficult to even have consistency with the ranking order of bowl games.
For Mountain West Bowls, we will designate the Potato Bowl as the MW Champion, although the champ could go to one of six different bowl games. But for simplicity’s sake, whoever you see in the Potato Bowl is who a writer thinks will be the Mountain West Champ, although we recognize that may not necessarily be the case when the time comes.
For Pac-12 teams, the legacy teams are still locked into the Pac-12 bowl tie-ins. The current champion will be in the Poinsettia Bowl, but after that, it’s a lot of unknown. We will also list the Sun Bowl, as that has traditionally be the last Pac-12 bowl to select and therefore most likely to have a new Pac team. Otherwise, back-up bowls will likely host many of the current Pac-12 teams. And if that wasn’t confusing enough, it’s possible that ESPN could put current Pac-12/old Mountain West teams in MW-affiliated bowls that ESPN owns. However, we won’t entertain that possibility, at least not to start.
Clear as mud? Good. For what it’s worth, we are providing a bowl tie-in key in this post. While it may not be completely accurate, it at least provides a picture of how we are arriving at some of our bowl projections. And as the picture becomes clearer, we will update our explanation key. If you find any info, feel free to let us know in the comments.
Bowl Affiliation Key
Potato Bowl: (Potential) Designated MW Champ
Hawaii Bowl: MW #2
Arizona Bowl: MW #3
New Mexico Bowl: MW #4
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: #1 MW backup
Cactus Bowl: Backup bowl
Poinsettia Bowl: Pac-12 champ
Hawaii Bowl: Pac-12 #2
ESPN Bowl: Pac-12 #3
ESPN Bowl: Pac-12 #4
Sun Bowl: Last option for legacy Pac-12 teams
ESPN Bowl: Backup bowl
College Football Playoff: Highest-ranked G6 team
Mike
Potato Bowl: North Dakota State
Hawaii Bowl: New Mexico
Arizona Bowl: Air Force
New Mexico Bowl: San Jose State
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: UNLV
Cactus Bowl: N/A
Poinsettia Bowl: Oregon State
Hawaii Bowl: Texas State
ESPN Bowl: Fresno State
ESPN Bowl: Colorado State
Sun Bowl: N/A
ESPN Bowl: N/A
College Football Playoff: Boise State
No changes in the Mountain West for me this week. Two teams I have listed were on a bye, and the others won. Nice to see UNLV have a win. On the Pac-12 side, I dropped San Diego State after their big loss. In their place is Colorado State, and while I’m not sure if the Rams are a bowl team yet, they are definitely more fun to watch right now. Then I put Oregon State in the Poinsettia Bowl, bumped up Texas State, and dropped Fresno State a few spots. I’m not confident either conference gets five bowl teams at this point, but it’s more fun to discuss more teams at this point, so I’ll err on the side of inclusion.
Zach
Potato Bowl: New Mexico
Hawaii Bowl: North Dakota State
Arizona Bowl: Hawaii
New Mexico Bowl: Air Force
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: UNLV
Cactus Bowl: N/A
Poinsettia Bowl: Oregon State
Hawaii Bowl: Colorado State
ESPN Bowl: Fresno State
ESPN Bowl: Texas State
Sun Bowl: N/A
ESPN Bowl: N/A
College Football Playoff: Boise State
My only change this week was swapping Texas State and San Diego State. I will add Washington State if they beat Fresno State this weekend and the winner of San Diego State vs. Texas State will also dictate a bowl spot. The Mountain West remains unchanged. Both conferences are likely to have a number of 6-6 or 7-5 teams.
Dan
Potato Bowl: New Mexico
Hawaii Bowl: North Dakota State
Arizona Bowl: Hawaii
New Mexico Bowl: San Jose State
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Air Force
Cactus Bowl: N/A
Poinsettia Bowl: Oregon State
Hawaii Bowl: Fresno State
ESPN Bowl: Colorado State
ESPN Bowl: Texas State
Sun Bowl: N/A
ESPN Bowl: N/A
College Football Playoff: Boise State
Aztec Fans, I am sorry. SDSU looks to be the lone major disappointment of the new PAC season (for now). They drop from the bowl race for me. Outside of that, not many changes, but this week should help provide some clarity in the MW and PAC. Oregon St v Colorado St, SJSU v Hawaii, Wyoming v NDSU…Expect some shifts next week!
Vic
Potato Bowl: North Dakota State
Hawaii Bowl: New Mexico
Arizona Bowl: Air Force
New Mexico Bowl: San Jose State
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: UNLV
Cactus Bowl: Wyoming
Poinsettia Bowl: Oregon State
Hawaii Bowl: Fresno State
ESPN Bowl: Texas State
ESPN Bowl: Colorado State
Sun Bowl: N/A
ESPN Bowl: N/A
College Football Playoff: Boise State
Jeff
Potato Bowl: New Mexico
Hawaii Bowl: North Dakota State
Arizona Bowl: Air Force
New Mexico Bowl: San Jose State
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: UNLV
Cactus Bowl: N/A
Poinsettia Bowl: Oregon State
Hawaii Bowl: Fresno State
ESPN Bowl: Texas State
ESPN Bowl: Colorado State
Sun Bowl: N/A
ESPN Bowl: N/A
College Football Playoff: Boise State
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