Nebraska Football Beats Michigan State 31-13: The Stat Scorecard, the Pass Rush, and Why I’m Not Predicting Anything

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Nebraska football opened Big Ten play the right way. The Huskers went into East Lansing, took a 24-10 halftime lead over Michigan State, and never let the Spartans back in the game. Final score: 31-13. Nebraska is 4-0 and 1-0 in the Big Ten.

I was at my oldest son’s wedding but I did watch the game later. At the wedding, I saw the score at halftime, and I thought there was no way Michigan State was coming back from that. From what I saw of how Nebraska’s defense was playing on the road, I felt very comfortable after the break.

The last drive before halftime helped too. Anthony Colandrea hit Vincent Genatone for a 13-yard touchdown with two seconds left. That turned a good half into a two-touchdown lead.

Here is how the game measured up against the top-25% benchmarks I’m tracking all season.

The Offense Missed More Than I Expected

The offense missed more targets than I thought it would. Thirty-one points against a target of 32 is a miss, but it’s one point. I’ll call it a mess, but not much of one.

Points per game: 31 (target 32) — miss
Yards per play: 5.4 (target 6.1) — miss
Yards per pass attempt: 7.9 (target 8.0) — slight miss
Explosive plays: 6 (target 9) — miss
Third-down conversions: 6 of 13, or 46.2% (target 44%) — hit
Red zone touchdown rate: 60% (target 67%) — miss
Sacks allowed: 0 (target 1.6) — hit

Everybody complained about the third quarter, and I understand why. Nebraska barely gained a yard. But the defense did its job in that quarter, so I’ll take a quarter off if the other side isn’t scoring either.

The third-down number matters most to me. If you don’t convert, you don’t keep the ball. If you do, you’re playing the way P.J. Fleck wins games at Minnesota: you just keep moving the chains. Nebraska hit that benchmark.

The red zone miss came on the last series. Nebraska probably could have scored there, or at least kicked a field goal.

Zero sacks allowed is a hit, but I’ll add a caution. Colandrea deserves a lot of credit, because I don’t know how many pass plays he took off and started running. Michigan State’s defensive coordinator, Joe Rossi, attacked the offensive line well. I complained for years about free rushers coming through during the Raiola era, and Michigan State got some of those. The line has to keep working on how it moves and how it reads the defense.

Colandrea Can’t Be the Leading Rusher

Colandrea went 15 of 27 for 212 yards and two touchdowns. He also ran 10 times for 66 yards and led the team in rushing.

His running is great. It makes first downs, it creates explosive plays, and it’s a constant fear for a defense. But I don’t want him leading Nebraska in rushing in Big Ten games. With Jamal Rule hurt, Mekhi Nelson carried the load, and the team ran 41 times for 157 yards, just 3.8 a carry.

I think that’s a real warning. Big Ten opponents will try to take away Nebraska’s run game and make Colandrea beat them through the air. He hasn’t shown many mistakes yet. He isn’t turning the ball over. But I’d guess Nebraska has to throw for more yards in the weeks ahead.

The Kwazi Gilmer Touchdown

Now the play that people are arguing about. Kwazi Gilmer’s 44-yard touchdown in the first quarter survived a video review, and I don’t think it should have. I have a problem with the ball touching the ground. If you’re playing catch with your 11-year-old and the ball hits the ground, you don’t call that a catch, even if you had control of it.

I know the new rules favor scoring, and I know people want more touchdowns. But that ruling changed the course of the game. I’m glad it went our way. I’m just not sure it was right. Tell me what you think in the comments.

Gilmer also caught a 38-yarder late when Nebraska wanted to put the game away. He and Nelson each had two explosive plays. The ball is being spread around, and Nebraska has weapons.

The Defense Was the Story

The defensive numbers were much better than the offensive ones.

Points allowed: 13 (target 20) — hit
Yards per carry allowed: 1.2 (target 3.7) — hit
Opponent red zone trips: 3 (target 3.2) — hit
Opponent red zone touchdown rate: 33%, one of three (target 55%) — hit
Sacks: 6 (target 2.5) — hit
Takeaways: 3 (target 1.75) — hit

If you want one graphic from this game, it’s this one: six sacks and three takeaways. That includes the interception at the end, when Michigan State looked like it might drive and get back in the game. Boom, turnover.

The season numbers back it up. Through four games Nebraska has 15 sacks, fourth in the country behind LSU, Tennessee, and Virginia Tech. That’s a big deal for a team that couldn’t pressure anybody in recent years. Nebraska is also 13th nationally in turnover margin at 1.25 per game, which is inside the top 25%. And the Huskers are tied for first with the teams that haven’t lost a fumble, and second in total turnovers lost, with one interception all season. I’m probably jinxing it.

Michigan State lost Cam Edwards for the season, which is a real shame, and the Spartans are still finding their way under Pat Fitzgerald. So is Michigan State a great team? Who knows. But holding an opponent to a 1.2 yard average is still hard to do.

Penalties and Special Teams

Nebraska had seven penalties for 60 yards against a target of 45. That’s a miss. Holding, pass interference, and a couple of false starts were the main culprits, plus an illegal substitution that was just stupid.

I think officials are calling more holding and defensive pass interference this year, much closer to how the NFL does it. I’m going to try to put together some numbers on whether penalties really are up across college football.

On special teams, Nebraska hit on all three averages. Michigan State blocked a Nebraska punt, and Archie kicked another one low. Nebraska got away with it because the Spartans were called for holding. Nebraska also blocked a Michigan State field goal.

My grand-nephew won the state title as a keeper for Flower Mound and was named the best soccer player in Texas, and he coaches keepers for a premier club. He tells me Archie isn’t a very good punter, and I’m keeping an eye on it. He’s mouthy, but he knows a lot about kicking a ball.

Damon Benning also said in an interview that Nebraska isn’t kicking off as deep as it could. The plan is to put it around the 40 and cover it so there are no returns. I only saw pieces of that interview, but we’ll keep watching special teams.

Vincent Genatone, and Not Predicting the Year

Vincent Genatone scored twice. He’s a walk-on, or at least he was, and I don’t think walk-ons really exist anymore. It was cool to see him get in the end zone. I hope he scores 38 more touchdowns in the next five or six games.

Other content creators are already doing the “four games tell us how the year goes” thing. Are we 8-4? 9-3? 10-2? I’d caution against it. Take it one game at a time and you’ll be much happier. Enjoy the win. Maryland is next.

In this era of transfers and new coaches, teams don’t solidify until two or three games into the season. One bad player, or one guy who’s paid way too much, can wreck a locker room. That’s why we get weird upsets. Oklahoma is terrible right now, and Texas A&M isn’t doing well despite all the money spent.

Pro Mindset and the Dante Moore Hit

The hit on Oregon quarterback Dante Moore was terrible. He slid, and USC’s Desman Stephens hit him in the head. Head injuries carry consequences for years, and I hope he’s OK.

That ties into what I think is the biggest problem in college football right now. We’re paying very young kids a lot of money, and they don’t have a professional mindset yet. You have to learn over one to three years what it takes to be a pro. In the NFL, everybody has that mindset, and the league fines players for dumb things.

There’s that Texas player who pretended he was pissing all over and drew a personal foul. That’s just dumb. I’d be surprised if Steve Sarkisian addresses it, and I think it’s part of why Texas may never win a national title under him. If you want college kids to behave like pros, start fining them like pros. Otherwise, some teams will keep going into weekends believing they’re better than they are.

The Wedding

I want to close with the reason I missed so much of this game. My oldest son Noah got married Saturday. He’s an extrovert with a lot of good friends, and he sang to his new wife on the dance floor. It was “Aquaman” by Walk the Moon. It isn’t a hit, but it’s a beautiful love song.

I coached a lot of Noah’s friends in soccer when they were four, five, six, and seven years old. I was also a Boy Scout leader for 17 years, and some of them were in my troop. Seeing them as 30-year-old men was really something. It was a great wedding, even if it was during a football game.

Take care of yourselves. Nebraska hosts Maryland next, and Maryland hasn’t fired Mike Locksley yet. I wouldn’t expect it. A lot of Big Ten schools seem more worried about keeping their universities together than about football.

Go Big Red.

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