Northwestern vs Penn State Picks, Odds, Parlay for College Football Week 5

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The Northwestern Wildcats host the Penn State Nittany Lions in Big Ten college football action on Friday, Oct. 2, at 8 p.m. ET on FOX.

Penn State enters as a 3-point favorite as it looks to bounce back from a loss at the hands of Wisconsin.

I came through with a two-leg same-game parlay featuring a spread pick on the home underdog and a player prop for Northwestern quarterback Aidan Chiles.

So, here are my Northwestern vs Penn State picks and college football parlay for Friday, October 2.

• Northwestern +3
• Aidan Chiles Over 12.5 Rushing Yards

Parlay Odds: +243 (bet365)

Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.

Northwestern vs Penn State Odds

There’s a chance (and a good one, at that) that Northwestern is just a quality football team. Since a Week 2 bye, we’ve seen the Wildcats:

• Blow Colorado out, 41-7
• Run the Wing-T and take defending undefeated national champion Indiana to the brink

I wouldn’t put it past Chip Kelly to stick with the modified Wing-T approach, especially against more talented defenses like Penn State, Iowa and Ohio State.

Quarterback Aidan Chiles has thrived in the system, rushing for four touchdowns on the season and 42 non-sack yards against the Hoosiers.

The most impressive part about this production is that Northwestern’s offensive line hasn’t gotten a very good push this year — most of the offensive success has been schemed.

Though Lee Beebe Jr. ran loose for 200 yards, Northwestern’s defense has been impressive this year. Its veteran secondary has kept even aggressive throwers like Josh Hoover largely in check.

This week, Northwestern takes on Rocco Becht, who has most of the compiled stat leads in college football thanks to 43 logged starts over four years.

Becht played exceptionally poorly at home against Wisconsin, completing just 12-of-29 passes for 114 yards (15.5 average depth of target). He was throwing the ball downfield with no success, due in part to the coaching staff but also due in part to him.

Against a better secondary, Becht has to take what’s given or risk another blemish on his 2026 resume.

Finally, Northwestern opens its brand-new $862 million stadium on Friday night. Expect a juiced crowd as tickets were sold out in a matter of minutes.

Matt Campbell has gone just 17-20-1 ATS as a road favorite in his career, dropping seven away games outright as a favorite since 2021.

A few disastrous sacks wiped out pretty much all of Chiles’ rushing production against Indiana, leaving him with 20 total yards on the year.

But nobody fields a pass rush group like Indiana (save for Georgia), packed with fifth-year seniors. Penn State doesn’t field that kind of veteran talent.

The Nittany Lions’ 5.04% sack rate this year ranks 82nd, and that’s come against offensive lines like Buffalo, Temple and Marshall. They allowed 41 rushing yards to Wisconsin quarterback Colton Joseph (39 yards on designed runs) and a 47-yard scramble to Temple QB Jaxon Smolik (71 total).

Opportunities in the QB run game have been there against this defense.

In 2024, Kelly took on No. 3 Penn State while serving as the offensive coordinator at Ohio State.

Nursing the one-score lead, Kelly turned to quarterback Will Howard in the run game to salt the game away. Howard took three rushes for 14 yards, including the game-sealing seven-yard carry on second-and-3.

In tight games, Kelly has full confidence in running his quarterback, and this game is forecasted to be tight.

Chiles is a capable runner whose rushing production this season has been wiped out by big sacks. Expect Kelly and Chiles to work on a remedy for those as Big Ten play marches on.

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