ROUNDTABLE: New Ryan Field opener vs. Penn State predictions
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100 years in the making. We’ve heard it for months on end.
All the noise has quieted now, and its time to play football at Ryan Field for the first time in 1,049 days. Except this time, its the most expensive college football stadium in history.
Northwestern (2-1, 0-1 B1G) hosts a reeling Penn State squad (3-1, 0-1 B1G) coming off a shocking upset loss at home to Wisconsin — the first team out of the AP Top 25 this week.
This is how Inside NU feels about tonight.
Matt Campbell (24-21 Northwestern)
Penn State is on upset watch for a multitude of reasons. Letting up two fourth quarter TDs to a struggling Wisconsin team is unacceptable when you’re trying to make a name for yourself at a powerhouse program (looking at you, name twin). PSU’s Cover 3 concept crumbled when put to the test and it cannot remain the same tonight against an NFL-influenced playbook.
Rocco Becht was not the Rocco Becht we saw at Iowa State a season ago either and his inefficiency is difficult to excuse, although I wouldn’t be surprised if it does start to improve with time. But tonight isn’t the night for that to happen, even as banged up as Northwestern is.
No, I’m not going to argue the Northwestern defensive scheme or the high-octane offense, but I’m going to base this off the fact that Ryan Field will be the most hostile environment in all of college football this weekend. Yes, in ALL of the sport.
Nobody wants moral victories, David Braun established that when he took over as head coach and that attitude has matriculated to ‘Cats faithful. Northwestern football is obsessed with becoming a powerhouse in the Big Ten and its not shy in making it known to the public. The combination of the coaching hires and strategic, chess-like moves in the transfer portal, Mark Jackson’s aggressiveness in helping the institution pursue President Mung Chiang and a fanbase hungry to get back to the a Pat Fitzgerald-like era of winning has made this magical night one of, if not the biggest Friday night in college football as it pertains to the Big Ten Conference.
All that said, give me Northwestern. It makes too much sense.
Charlie Jacobs (31-23 Northwestern)
Last week changed A LOT. Not only for Northwestern’s season outlook, but really for much of the Big Ten.
Ohio State is still in a tier of its own, but the next tier is more beatable now. Indiana almost lost at home to the Wildcats, Oregon lost to Oklahoma State a couple weeks ago (although the Cowboys might be legit and their Week 1 loss to Tulsa was just an asterisk), USC’s defense and offensive line continue to underperform in big games under Lincoln Riley, Michigan lost to Iowa at The Big House in front of over 110,000 fans on the last play and – most importantly for this – Penn State blew a multi-score lead to Wisconsin in Happy Valley while the Nittany Lions’ defense had picked off Colton Joseph three times.
The first half against Indiana was horrific for Northwestern offensively, but Indiana’s defense is a level above Penn State’s. The Wildcats figured something out in the passing game, which they needed because of their lack of rushing yardage. Penn State had a short week while Northwestern had the rare Friday-to-Friday layoff, which acts as a normal week.
New stadium, new expectations…give me the ‘Cats.
Zac Penson (24-17 Northwestern)
After a gut-wrenching loss to Indiana last week, the ‘Cats have something to prove. Despite a loss (and no I’m not a fan of moral victories), the Wildcats balled out on a national stage. Aidan Chiles showed that he isn’t the same turnover-prime quarterback he was at times during his stint at Michigan State, and the resilient Wildcat defense flourished under their “bend, don’t break” persona throughout much of the Indiana game, limiting reigning national champions to three touchdowns.
While no victory was claimed, this team clearly had the personnel to take down the Hoosiers – a personnel that earned them a vote in the AP Poll.
Matt Campbell knows Northwestern is no longer the Big Ten underdog. He knows Northwestern isn’t a free game. And he surely knows that a brand new Wildcat Wall of 2,000 Northwestern students (plus an extra 1,500 seats adjacent to the student section) and what could be considered the most Northwestern-favored crowd in history will be waiting for him at the New Ryan Field.
Week 4 changed the trajectory of the 2026 season in my eyes. Assuming it wasn’t a fluke, this Northwestern team can beat anyone in the country. In fact, Northwestern is currently favored over Iowa in a few weeks according to ESPN Analytics.
For the first time in a few years, ‘Cats faithful have a team that can compete on a national scale.
But again, no moral victories. The Wildcats proved themselves against the Hoosiers in a close game. Now it is time for them to come out and build on it.
Penn State is no joke. They aren’t invincible (especially after their loss to Wisconsin). I’m taking the ‘Cats, but not without a battle to the end.
Whitley Williams (28-21 Northwestern)
Northwestern has Penn State’s number.
Rewind the clock to last season, when Northwestern pulled off a major upset over the Penn State Nittany Lions inside the lion’s den of Beaver Stadium (while effectively ending James Franklin’s stint in Happy Valley).
Now, the combination of the opening of the spectacular New Ryan Field and Penn State’s early stumble against Wisconsin last Saturday tips the scales for the Wildcats.
Both offenses enter this matchup averaging more than 32 points per game, led by productive quarterback play. Penn State’s Rocco Becht has thrown for 865 yards and nine touchdowns through four games, while Northwestern’s Aidan Chiles has totaled 807 yards and six touchdowns through three games.
Penn State’s running game sputtered last week and Becht was not sharp. Both offenses will be missing key weapons. The Wildcats will likely be without tight end Luke Dehnicke, who has emerged as a dynamic piece of the offense, and totaled 140 yards and seven receptions against Indiana. Penn State will be without star receiver Koby Howard, who’s dealing with an undisclosed injury he picked up in Week 3 against Buffalo.
The biggest challenge will be Penn State’s defense, which ties for eighth nationally allowing 11.5 points per game, according to ESPN. But offensive coordinator Chip Kelly has shown his creative mind, dialing up arena-football style plays that kept the Indiana defense on its heels.
Chiles is playing some of the best football of his career, and Northwestern’s offensive line has played exceptionally well. The Wildcats are primed to make another statement under the lights.
Kussh Mital (27-24 Northwestern)
The pressure both of these teams face heading into this game is palpable.
Penn State is in a new era with Head Coach Matt Campbell, a new era where things were supposed to be different. Games against lower level Big Ten competition should not be concerning the Nittany Lion faithful.
But they are.
Losing this game already puts Campbell under the same level of scrutiny former Head Coach James Franklin was feeling in his final year, and it’s Campbell’s first.
Northwestern isn’t feeling pressure in the shade of doubt or pessimism, but rather the pressure that it’s finally time. The time of being a perineal bottomfeeder with a couple good seasons being ushered away. Everything is set up for tonight to be the Wildcats’ moment. It’s a new stadium against a team that, if they beat, will elevate them from the status of a scrappy team you have to watch out for, to a team that could find itself in conversations that seemed unfathomable just a couple short years ago.
Both teams are under pressure, but Northwestern is under the kind that makes diamonds. The offense, led by Aidan Chiles, scored multiple times in the second half against an elite Indiana defense – one that is arguably better than Penn State’s. NU’s defense showed a glimpse of brilliance in the first half against the Hoosiers, and if it can replicate that against Penn State, there won’t be a lot of answers.
These teams are incredibly close in terms of talent and ability. It will be a close affair, but with the energy of a new venue behind them, Northwestern should emerge victorious in this one.
Calvin Kaplan (41-24 Northwestern)
This specific score prediction doesn’t come up on Inside NU often (ever?), but there are plenty of reasons to believe we could see a blowout like this in the inaugural game at New Ryan Field.
First and foremost, Northwestern’s offense is on the rise. It took Indiana to the brink on the road last week, starting off slow but absolutely dominating in the second half against a truly elite defense. The likely absence of Luke Dehnicke will hurt, but Hayden Eligon II is expected to return, and I expect this dynamic Chip Kelly-Aidan Chiles offense to run roughshod on the Nittany Lions regardless.
On the other side of the ball, the Wildcats do look somewhat vulnerable in the secondary with the likely absence of Braden Turner and the confirmation of Josh Fussell’s unavailability, which should give Penn State QB Rocco Becht some good opportunities to look downfield. The Hoosiers were relatively limited last week, but that was in large part due to Josh Hoover’s repetitive mistakes on the deep ball and missing some wide-open receivers. Penn State’s offense will be better prepared after its disappointing loss to Wisconsin, but I don’t think the defense is ready for another Chip Kelly masterclass.
Maybe I’m guilty of indulgence in ‘Cats optimism, but I could absolutely see a historic Chiles performance and a Northwestern runaway in front of a sellout crowd. Expect the ‘Cats to move to 3-1.
Donovan West (21-17 Penn State)
The stage is set for Northwestern.
The Wildcats are coming off one of their best performances against a top-tier team in years. The Nittany Lions just choked away a game to a middling Wisconsin team. The New Ryan Field is officially opening and will host tens of thousands of enthusiastic fans adorned in purple and white.
Everything is aligned for the emergence of a new Big Ten powerhouse on Friday at 7 p.m. CT.
Everything is too perfect.
Except this: Penn State will walk into Evanston with absolutely nothing to lose.
The Nittany Lions already lost this season and don’t carry the weight of an AP ranking in front of their name. They are looking to avenge last season’s upset loss to the Wildcats in what turned out to be a disastrous year in Happy Valley.
Rocco Becht is coming off a forgettable performance, finishing with a QBR of 31.8, and has already been written off as a quality Big Ten quarterback.
Northwestern, on the other hand, enters the game after a week of praise and congratulations for its hard-fought moral victory – which David Braun is taking none of. It will walk under the prime-time Friday night lights with the nation’s eyes on the most expensive college football stadium ever built.
It’s easy to point to the second half Northwestern pieced together against Indiana, featuring what may have been the best half of football of Chiles’ career, and ignore the prosaic first half. It’s easy to jump on the hype train and announce NU’s arrival. I’m not going to do that just yet. The Wildcat offense totaled just three punts and a safety in the first 30 minutes against Indiana and were lucky to be down by only 12 at halftime.
In picking against Northwestern, I’m betting on Chiles to play like the quarterback he’s been on tape for the past three years rather than the past 30 minutes; I’m betting on Penn State to play the caliber of defense it has all season, less a fluky fourth quarter against Wisconsin. It’ll be a close, grindy game, but Penn State and Becht will prevail to silence the crowd in the end.
Ascher Levin (21-13 Northwestern)
After a game against Indiana where the ‘Cats had plenty of chances, played their best football in the second half and looked impressive overall, Northwestern takes on a Penn State team coming off a brutal loss. The Nittany Lions blew a 17-0 lead against Wisconsin, leaving both teams coming off losses but entering this game with very different momentum.
Penn State has been strong defensively, ranking fourth nationally in passing defense and in the top-40 against the run. However, the Nittany Lions opened the season against three Group of Six opponents before facing Wisconsin, which makes it difficult to know exactly how good this defense is. Their defense appears to be the strength of the team, and Chip Kelly and Aidan Chiles will need to keep Northwestern’s offense rolling.
The ‘Cats’ offense has looked excellent and was nearly unstoppable in the second half against Indiana. The run game still needs work, but there is plenty to like about this offense. The biggest roadblock is rooted in the injury concerns surrounding Luke Dehnicke, who has been terrific, and I think will be a future NFL tight end. Even with his potential absence, I expect Northwestern to keep things moving offensively, despite my prediction of a lower-scoring game.
On the other side of the ball, Northwestern desperately needs to improve against the run. The ‘Cats are allowing 225.5 rushing yards per game, a number that will need to come down against Penn State. Still, Northwestern has played a classic “bend, don’t break” style of defense, and I expect that to continue.
There is plenty of excitement surrounding this game, and with an electric crowd at the New Ryan Field, I think the ‘Cats will take down Penn State in a dogfight.
Drew Christmann (26-23 Northwestern)
Yes, I’m still riding the high of that second half against Indiana. Aidan Chiles and Chip Kelly looked like the pairing we saw through the first two games, this time against the reigning national champions. But unlike last year’s team, I’m less worried about whether or not they’ll score against Penn State.
Northwestern’s defense is giving up 225.5 rushing yards a game, a number that includes 205 to Indiana’s Lee Beebe, Jr. The Nittany Lions have their own deep backfield rotation to match the Wildcats, with James Peoples, Carson Hansen, Quinton Martin Jr. and Cam Wallace. All have at least 125 yards on the season, with the group averaging 4.7 yards per carry. There’s not a lead back amongst them, ensuring PSU has fresh legs on every series.
If Matt Campbell and company knows what’s good for them, they’ll try to lengthen their drives with the run to keep Chiles and the offense on the sidelines.
Concern also comes in the secondary, with Josh Fussell out and Braden Turner likely to join him on the injury reserve tonight. Rocco Becht’s nine touchdowns to one interception ratio looks nice, until you see that most of that damage came against G6 opponents with less athletic personnel.
In his first real test against Wisconsin, slotted 14th in Inside NU’s preseason power rankings, he managed just 114 yards and an interception.
Northwestern’s banged-up defensive backs will need to find out which version of him shows up.
Still, there’s plenty of reason for optimism. Penn State has just six sacks through four games. That bodes well for Chiles, who thrived in that second half against Indiana with a clean pocket. Add on a short week for Penn State, coming off a game where they blew a 17-point lead at halftime in its own stadium, in conjunction with the grand opening of the New Ryan Field, I see the ‘Cats moving to 3-1 on Friday.
Adam Sutro (24-22 Northwestern)
A lot of my colleagues have written here about the results of last week’s games: the ‘Cats pushed Indiana to the game’s final moments, falling 29-23 on the road, while No. 13 Penn State got upset at home by Wisconsin, losing 24-20. Entering Friday’s game, the ‘Cats, seemingly, have been playing better football than the Nittany Lions,
However, even before last week, my pick for this game was already decided.
For one of the rare times in Northwestern history, the eyes of the college football world will be pointed toward Evanston on Friday night. It’s one of the most anticipated moments in program history — the New Ryan Field Opener — and it’s a chance to show the world that NU is building something special. An opportunity to take down one of the Big Ten’s most decorated teams and put the conference on notice.
This is one of those times as a fan of a team, when you simply have to block out the possibility of defeat. For that reason, and because I believe that David Braun and Aidan Chiles are built for the moment, I’m picking the ‘Cats.
Bryan Boanoh (27-17 Northwestern)
I’m not going to provide much actual objective football analysis here, you can look at everyone else’s blurbs for that.
This is just one of those games that feels predestined to be a Wildcat win.
First game in a brand new state-of-the-art stadium.
A student section that was going on their phones and opening up tabs on their computers in class to sit in a ticketmaster queue behind 1000+ other people just to make sure they could be at the game.
A transfer QB who is rolling and a team that just took the defending national champs down to the wire on the road a week ago, and you’re welcoming a team who you upset at their own place last year when their roster had more talent than it does this year.
I’m a narratives guy, always have been. No other ending makes sense to this story than an NU win under the lights.
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