Fraud Alert: Notre Dame, Texas Tech, a few surprises face judgment after Week 5
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There weren’t many surprises in Week 5 of the college football season. But a handful of teams have been surprising simply because of where they stand.
Are those shocks the product of good fortune, or is there something genuinely special brewing in places few expected?
In this week’s edition of USA TODAY Sports' Fraud Court, several unexpected teams find themselves on the stand. Not because they’ve fallen short of expectations, but because they’ve exceeded them. Hot starts have generated attention and raised a familiar question: Is this success sustainable, or is it merely masquerading as something more?
Fortunately, court is now in session. We'll determine which teams are the real deal and which are due for a reality check, while also putting a few College Football Playoff hopefuls under scrutiny after some decidedly shaky performances.
No. 3 Notre Dame
The case: The Fighting Irish played their closest game of the season, surprisingly against a North Carolina team that hung on the entire game and provided a scare before Notre Dame could pull away for a 37-26 win.
The verdict: Not guilty. This was a strange game, with weather conditions helping create a few unusual moments. North Carolina also caught some key breaks, most notably a kickoff return touchdown to open the second half. Even so, Notre Dame was the better team for most of the afternoon. Quarterback CJ Carr continued to look the part of a championship-caliber leader, while Jonaz Walton stepped up at running back. Despite the upset potential and classic trap-game feel, the Fighting Irish did enough to reinforce their status as a legitimate national title contender.
No. 9 Texas Tech
The case: An upset appeared to be brewing in Boulder after Texas Tech stumbled through an ugly first half and trailed Colorado 7-3 at halftime. But the Red Raiders regrouped after the break, leaning on their defense and rattling off 26 unanswered points to turn a potential scare into a comfortable victory.
The verdict: Guilty. Be honest: Does this really look like a top-10 team? Through five weeks, Texas Tech has benefited from a favorable schedule and has looked far less convincing when facing better competition. Quarterback Will Hammond has yet to consistently resemble the player expected to emerge from the fallout of the Brendan Sorsby saga, and many of the Red Raiders' shortcomings have been masked by a strong defense. The schedule remains manageable enough for Texas Tech to keep winning, perhaps even run the table, but this is also a team that looks vulnerable to getting caught asleep against the wrong opponent.
No. 15 Florida
The case: One week after delivering a statement win against Ole Miss, Florida found itself on the receiving end of a beatdown. Missouri dominated in a 45-17 victory, cooling much of the momentum and excitement surrounding coach Jon Sumrall's program.
The verdict: Not guilty. Florida's past two weeks have been a roller coaster, but the overall trajectory should still be pointed upward. The Gators were caught flat-footed and paid for it, yet one lopsided loss doesn't erase the progress they've shown. Florida still possesses the firepower to field one of the SEC's most dangerous offenses. That optimism, however, will be tested soon. Matchups against Texas and Georgia before the end of October should provide a much clearer picture of whether the Gators are a legitimate contender or simply a team that caught lightning in a bottle for a few weeks.
No. 20 Mississippi State
The case: With an opportunity to prove it belonged in the contender conversation, Mississippi State stumbled from the outset against Alabama and never recovered. Early mistakes put the Bulldogs in a hole, and the Crimson Tide took full advantage, rolling to a 33-point road victory and silencing the cowbells.
The verdict: Not guilty. The moment may simply have been too big for Mississippi State. The Bulldogs' early miscues forced them to play from behind all afternoon, a difficult formula against a team of Alabama's caliber. Still, quarterback Kamario Taylor remains one of the nation's most dynamic playmakers and should benefit from the experience as he continues to lead the offense. The larger concern is on the other side of the ball. If the defense doesn't show more consistency against quality opponents, Mississippi State could find itself back in Fraud Court before long.
No. 24 Pittsburgh
The case: The battle of 4-0 ACC teams went down to a controversial finish, with Pitt hanging on thanks to a missed field goal that may have been good. (It was close.) The Panthers are 5-0 and finally ranked, but there was some bad news in the loss of quarterback Mason Heintschel.
The verdict: Guilty. This ruling changed the moment Pitt lost Heintschel for the season. He was a major reason the Panthers' 5-0 start felt legitimate, and his injury dramatically alters the outlook moving forward. While Pitt deserves credit for what it has accomplished, it's difficult to assume the Panthers can sustain that level of success without their most important player. The timing is especially problematic with a much tougher second half of the schedule looming. Until Pitt proves it can keep winning without Heintschel, skepticism is warranted. The Panthers have earned the attention, but they'll need to provide more evidence before being cleared of fraud allegations.
Virginia
The case: Virginia's first ACC road trip turned into a disaster. Florida State quarterback Ashton Daniels ran wild, accounting for five rushing touchdowns in a stunning 38-7 rout that exposed the Cavaliers on both sides of the ball.
The verdict: Guilty. The Cavaliers may have escaped scrutiny in Week 3, but there was no avoiding it this time. The blueprint for attacking Virginia is becoming increasingly clear: mobile quarterbacks can wreak havoc on this defense. Daniels followed the example set by West Virginia's Michael Hawkins Jr., exposing a vulnerability that raises serious questions about Virginia's ACC contender status. Just as troubling was the performance of a veteran offensive line that was expected to be a strength but instead got pushed around throughout the game. All that preseason hype has evaporated in a hurry, and the Cavaliers have a lot to prove before they're taken seriously again.
California
The case: A trip to Las Vegas wasn't fun for California with the Golden Bears exposed by UNLV in a 39-31 loss while Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele was held out over injury concerns. The 2-3 start is the worst since 2021.
The verdict: Guilty. Tosh Lupoi was supposed to usher in a new era at Cal. Instead, the early returns have raised legitimate questions about whether he's the right coach to elevate the Golden Bears. The inexperience on the staff has been evident, particularly in late-game situations where questionable play-calling and game management have hurt more than helped. Even more concerning is the development of quarterback Sagapolutele, whose considerable talent has yet to be fully unlocked. For a program that entered the season with optimism and momentum, it's fair to wonder whether this is the worst-case scenario for Year 1 of the Lupoi era. Few things are more disappointing than watching potential go unrealized.
Northwestern
The case:New Ryan Field had a grand opening with Northwestern bullying Penn State 34-13 for the first home victory over the Nittany Lions since 2015.
The verdict: Not guilty. There may be a sleeper emerging in the Big Ten. David Braun has quietly built a formidable team in Evanston, and one of his best moves was bringing in Chip Kelly as offensive coordinator. Kelly's influence has helped accelerate Aidan Chiles' development while adding the creativity and explosiveness the Wildcats' offense had been missing.
The close game against Indiana wasn't a fluke. Northwestern has consistently looked like a team capable of competing with anyone on its schedule, and there are legitimate reasons to believe the Wildcats are only getting better. If Chiles continues to progress and the offense keeps evolving, the ceiling for this team is remarkably high. This could end up being the best season of Braun's tenure and one of Northwestern's most memorable campaigns in years.
Minnesota
The case: The Little Brown Jug returned to Minneapolis for the first time since 2014, with Minnesota's defense coming up clutch to beat Michigan 20-14 in the first home win over the Wolverines since 1977 to move to 4-1.
The verdict: Jury is still out. Love him or hate him, P.J. Fleck has a habit of producing winning teams in Minneapolis. But while this was undoubtedly a program-defining win, it felt as much about Michigan's mistakes as Minnesota's brilliance. Wolverines quarterback Bryce Underwood gifted the Gophers multiple opportunities, and failing to capitalize would have been a far bigger story. That's not to take away from what Minnesota has accomplished. The victory against Washington remains an impressive data point, and a 4-1 start deserves respect. Still, before a final verdict can be reached, the Golden Gophers need to prove themselves against another quality opponent. The results have been encouraging, but the evidence remains incomplete.
Baylor
The case:DJ Lagway is settling in nicely at Baylor, throwing for 306 yards and four touchdowns in a 55-19 road rout of Arizona State. The victory improved the Bears to 2-0 in Big 12 play.
The verdict:Not guilty. Congratulations, Dave Aranda, you are officially off the hot seat — for now. The season-opening loss to Auburn was a setback, but Baylor has looked increasingly impressive ever since. When Lagway plays at the level many expected during his time at Florida, the Bears have the talent to compete with anyone in the conference. Don't be surprised if Baylor emerges as a legitimate contender in the race for the Big 12 title.
Guilty teams this season
- Oregon
- Michigan
- Oklahoma
- SMU
- Clemson
- Nebraska
- Illinois
- Texas A&M
- North Carolina
- Vanderbilt
- USC
- Penn State
- Missouri
- Louisville
- Washington
- Colorado
- Texas Tech
- Pittsburgh
- Virginia
- California
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Fraud Alert: Notre Dame, Texas Tech, a few surprises face judgment after Week 5
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