USC vs. Penn State prediction, odds, pick for pivotal showdown in Week 6

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This is a crucial game for both teams as USC (5-1, 3-1 in the Big Ten) is trying to show that it belongs in the upper reaches of the Big Ten while Penn State (3-2, 0-2) is trying to rescue its season after suffering back-to-back losses to Wisconsin and Northwestern.

USC suffered its only defeat as a home underdog to Oregon, and the Trojans would like to make up for that loss by going into Happy Valley and extending the Nittany Lions’ losing streak. A win on the road would give USC plenty of momentum as it prepares for the iron of its schedule against Wisconsin, Ohio State and Indiana in consecutive weeks.

Penn State is trying to avoid the nightmare it went through last season when the Nittany Lions lost six straight games and eventually finished the season with a losing record at 5-7. New head coach Matt Campbell has the talent to win this game and earn a victory at home, but quarterback Rocco Becht will clearly be under pressure.

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The Trojans have an explosive offense with Jayden Maiava under center, but unleashing that offense against a desperate Penn State team will be a huge challenge.

USC vs. Penn State Odds

USC: +1.5 (-112)

Penn State: -1.5 (-108)

Over: 54.5 (-112)

Under: 54.5 (-108)

Pointspread information provided courtesy of DraftKings.

USC vs. Penn State Key Injuries

USC — Out: WR Corey Simms, S Kendarius Reddick, LB Roman Marchetti, OL Kilian O’Connor. Questionable: DT Jahkeem Stewart, WR Trent Mosley, WR Terrell Anderson, TE Mark Bowman, OL Hayden Treter, DT Jide Abasiri.

Penn State — Out: WR Koby Howard, DE LaVar Arrington II, CB Joshua Johnson, DE Max Granville, LB Cam Smith, CB Christian Askew, CB Tyler Armstead, DE Mason Robinson, DE Dayshaun Burnett, OL Will Tompkins, TE Cooper Alexander, PK Cristiano Rosa. Questionable: LB Alex Tatsch, DT Armstrong Nnodim.

USC vs. Penn State Betting Trends

USC is 1-5 ATS this season and the Trojans have gone over the total 4 times.

Penn State is 2-3 ATS this season and the Nittany Lions have gone over the total 3 times.

USC is 0-1 ATS on the road.

Penn State is 2-1 ATS at home.

USC was 5-8-0 ATS in 2025.

Penn State was 5-8-0 ATS in 2025.

Penn State won 33-30 (OT) in the last meeting between the two teams in 2024.

These teams have met four times since 2000. USC has won three of those matchups.

Keys to USC vs. Penn State matchup

Mandatory Credit: Matthew O’Haren-Imagn Images

The Trojans will be ready to unleash their explosive passing attack behind Jayden Maiava, and while the Nittany Lions are going to brace for that, Penn State is coming off a brutal defensive showing against Northwestern. The Wildcats did it with a powerful ground game and outgained Penn State by a 506-291 margin.

This was a shocking performance under first-year head coach Matt Campbell and has been deemed unacceptable by the coaching staff. However, it is unlikely that Maiava can be stopped by this unit. The USC quarterback as completed 131 of 191 passes for 1,744 yards with 15 touchdown passes and just 3 interceptions.

Maiava has three very capable receivers in Kayden Dixon-Wyatt, Zach Williams and Trent Mosley (questionable). Dixon-Wyatt is the most dependable of the trio and he has caught 25 passes for 372 yards and 3 TDs this season. RB King Miller will take pressure off the passing game. He has rushed for 493 yards and 3 TDs while averaging 5.2 yards per carry.

After a sharp start to the season, Rocco Becht and the Penn State offense has slowed down quite a bit in its two losses. However, the USC defense is vulnerable and Becht could return to a much-improved form in this game.

Becht has completed 83 of 134 passes for 1,108 yards with a 10-3 TD-interception ratio. Since Koby Howard is out, he will be looking at Chase Sowell and Benjamin Brahmer to pick up the slack. Sowell has caught 19 passes for 264 yards and 2 TDs, while Brahmer has contributed 16-178-3.

If RB James Peoples can find a few creases in the USC defense, it will make life much easier for Becht and the passing game. Peoples has rushed for 212 yards and 2 TDs while averaging 4.7 yards per carry.

USC vs. Penn State Prediction and Pick

This game has the makings of a high-scoring shoot out. This is the so-called “White Out” game at Beaver Stadium and that could inspire the home team to a top performance. The problem is that neither team has shown any inclination to play shut down defense.

Maiava could have an explosive game against the soft Penn State defense that was just abused by Northwestern. Becht should also find fertile ground as he competes against a Trojans defense that has not shown it can prevent opposing teams from moving up and down the field.

While Penn State needs this game after dropping its first two Big Ten games, USC wins on the road.

Final USC vs. Penn State Prediction and Pick: USC 35, Penn State 30. Trojans get the win and cover, and the game goes over the total.

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