SMU Bowl Projections Raise Questions About Mustangs' Playoff Hopes

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DALLAS – SMU football remains firmly in the postseason conversation, but national analysts aren't exactly convinced the Mustangs are headed back to the College Football Playoff.

Despite a 4-1 record and a No. 24 ranking in the Associated Press Top 25, Rhett Lashlee's team is receiving a wide range of bowl projections entering its midseason bye week.

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And some of those potential matchups are considerably more appealing than others.

ESPN's Kyle Bonagura projects SMU against Florida in the TaxSlayer Gator Bowl, a matchup also predicted by USA Today.

ESPN colleague Mark Schlabach sees a different destination, matching the Mustangs against Northwestern in the Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium.

Sports Illustrated and College Football Network favor an Arizona-SMU matchup in the Sun Bowl, while Athlon Sports projects Houston as the opponent in the Pop-Tarts Bowl.

PFSN offers perhaps the most intriguing possibility: SMU against USC in the Holiday Bowl.

CBS Sports has an unusual prediction, sending the Mustangs to the First Responder Bowl against UTSA at their own Gerald J. Ford Stadium.

But SMU isn't ready to settle for a consolation prize.

The Mustangs have won three consecutive games since falling 41-31 at Louisville, including last weekend's 25-16 victory over Boston College.

That latest win, however, exposed concerns about an offense that produced just 218 total yards.

Quarterback Kevin Jennings completed 20 of 30 passes for 160 yards and two touchdowns, but SMU managed only 58 rushing yards.

That's hardly the explosive production fans have come to expect from Lashlee's offense.

Still, the defense continues to provide reasons for optimism.

SMU has been particularly effective on third down, limiting opponents to approximately 26 percent conversions, while its offense has converted better than 52 percent of its own opportunities.

National rankings reflect the uncertainty surrounding the Mustangs.

SMU sits 21st in the Coaches Poll and 24th in the AP rankings, but CBS Sports places the program 29th, while The Athletic ranks it 31st.

The message is clear: SMU remains respected, but there's work to do.

With Virginia visiting Dallas on October 17, the Mustangs have an opportunity to strengthen their ACC championship credentials.

Winning the conference remains their clearest path into the 12-team playoff.

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For SMU, the real question isn't which bowl invitation might arrive in December.

It's whether the Mustangs can play well enough to make those projections irrelevant.

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