1 Fact, 1 Fiction in the Michigan-Penn State Disappointment Bowl

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0-5. That is the combined record in conference play for the Michigan Wolverines and Penn State Nittany Lions with both teams slumping into what was supposed to be a fiery reunion in Ann Arbor. Instead, Kyle Whittingham and Matt Campbell are facing a lot of tough questions much earlier into their new positions than anticipated, making Saturday look a bit like a desperation bowl.

The Nittany Lions hung close to USC, but ultimately lost their third straight after blowing the lead against Wisconsin and getting completely blown out by Northwestern. As bad as this stretch has been, vibes are not much higher with the Wolverines following a devastating collapse against Iowa and an inexcusable catastrophe against Minnesota. No one is happy, but someone has to be the unhappiest.

Fact: Penn State has been more disappointing than Michigan

Back in August (when life was full of optimism…), the media circled this game as a potential College Football Playoff inflection point for Penn State. With no games against the likes of Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon, Iowa, and UCLA, even a 0-2 stretch against USC and Michigan might be enough to get into the CFP; win one of them, and Campbell looked all but certain to earn a playoff berth in Year One.

Obviously, those dreams are now dead. Perhaps an upset in the White Out over the Trojans could have kept a sliver of hope alive should Penn State have won again this weekend, but at 3-3 there is no chance of that now, especially with the limited resume opportunities. Yes, Michigan is struggling too, but everyone knew that making a postseason push was going to be a stretch; not so for the Nittany Lions.

SP+ puts Penn State down at 38th with neither unit sitting in the top 25. It is only six games in, but this program looks no better positioned than it did under James Franklin, and that has to be the biggest cause for concern. The Wolverines are not inspiring a ton of confidence either, but a change was forced upon them, and losing Sherrone Moore was not a huge loss on the field. The days are getting dark in Happy Valley.

Fiction: Michigan’s schedule gives Penn State the upper hand

As bad as Penn State has looked, the chance for a positive finale is still there. Games against Purdue, Washington, Rutgers, and Maryland offer a good runaway into 2027, and sadly Minnesota appears to be very beatable. Meanwhile, Michigan faces most of the conference’s elite and has an uphill hill to climb to even reach bowl eligibility.

Additionally, while Rocco Becht has been pretty poor in Big Ten play, throwing just two touchdowns to three picks and averaging just 6.3 YPA in the three contests, his track record is much more robust than Bryce Underwood’s. Average quarterback play might be enough to take down the bottom tier of the conference, while the Wolverines will need big improvements on offense to have a chance at anything.

All of that being said, I would not be surprised at all to see Michigan finish with a better record than Penn State. Part of that could be helped by a win on Saturday, but the Wolverines just offer more upside, even with some daunting matchups ahead. It would not be shocking for Penn State to continue to look very pedestrian, while the Wolverines could absolutely pull off an upset or two, as rough as the past couple weeks have been.

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