Notre Dame being independent hurts more than it helps

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Last year, through much controversy, we saw a 10-2 Notre Dame team get left out of the College FootballPlayoff. It required a lot of unique circumstances to happen. Oklahoma had to beat Alabama in their second-to-last game.

Miami had to go exactly 10-2 and fail to qualify for the ACC Championship game. What ensued was a logjam of teams that finished the regular season 10-2, and Miami got the nod over Notre Dame because of their head-to-head victory.

The bottom line is this: Notre Dame did not get selected for the CFP in 2025 because they lost to the only two CFP-caliber teams that they played against. This year, the Irish have a schedule that has games against BYU, SMU, and Miami. It is paramount that they win these games if they do not want a repeat of last season.

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Notre Dame Schedule

When most of the national pundits analyze Notre Dame’s schedule, it turns into lazy analysis more often than not. Notre Dame is not in a conference, and their schedule is often tied to their annual rivals (Stanford, USC, Army/Navy, Michigan State, etc.). They do not control how good these rivals are on a year-to-year basis. They also play 5 ACC opponents every single season.

They do not control how good or how bad those ACC opponents are. They also always seem to find a marquee non-conference matchup near the start of the season. In the last decade, Notre Dame has played Texas, Georgia, Michigan, Ohio State, Texas A&M, and Wisconsin in this slot. So, based on the luck of the draw, Notre Dame can end up with a very tough schedule, or a very weak schedule.

This year, the Irish drew a group that is closer to “weak” than it is “tough.” However, their 12 games do rate out as more difficult than the average ACC or Big 12 schedule. So when the national pundits call Notre Dame’s schedule a “cakewalk,” but don’t say anything about Miami or Texas Tech, that’s lazy analysis.

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Being Independent Is An Issue

Here’s where the issue lies for Notre Dame, though: as an independent, they do not play in a Conference Championship game. The Conference Championship game is an opportunity, specifically for ACC/Big 12 teams, to not only punch an auto-berth to the CFP, but also to play against quality competition once more (which doesn’t happen on a weekly basis in those leagues).

This leads us to talk about BYU – the Cougars’ best chance to qualify for this year’s CFP is to simply win the Big 12 Championship game. This game against Notre Dame does nothing for them in that regard. Their conference record will be the exact same after this game is played. It’s not a must-win for them because they have their Conference Championship game.

Notre Dame does not get this “bonus game,” so where they sit after 12 games is where they sit. However many quality opponents they had on the 12-game schedule is how many they get.

So, what can the Irish do about this slight bit of scheduling inequality? Like the former owner of the Oakland Raiders, Al Davis, used to say, “Just win, baby.” No matter who is on the schedule, no matter what else happens across college football, a 12-0 Notre Dame team is not going to be left out.

The Irish know that their opportunities to impress the nation are few and far between this season, and they won’t let this one slip through their grasp.

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