Can Oklahoma State make College Football Playoff? It's not a crazy path for Cowboys
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STILLWATER — Oklahoma State’s season-opening loss at Tulsa looks more mystifying by the week. All the Cowboys have done since then is win. Meanwhile, the Golden Hurricane is on a three-game skid.
Tulsa coach Tre Lamb is 2-0 against OSU and 1-9 in the American.
But, as Eric Morris and his Cowboys have done, maybe it’s time we move on from the Tulsa debacle. Because guess what? It has no bearing on OSU contending for the Big 12 title, and thereby (probably) means a whole bunch of nothing when it comes to the Cowboys’ not-so-crazy chances of making the College Football Playoff.
OSU’s path to the playoff is straightforward: Make the Big 12 title game. Win the Big 12 title game. Whether that’s by winning out or advancing to Arlington with a conference loss or two.
OSU has two big obstacles amid an otherwise soft conference schedule: vs. Texas Tech on Nov. 14, and at Houston at 6:30 p.m. Saturday. The Cowboys are slight underdogs against the Cougs. If OSU wins, as it did as underdogs against Oregon and at West Virginia, the Cowboys might be favored in every game the rest of the way. Including against Texas Tech, with it being in Stillwater and the Red Raiders not being the juggernaut they were a year ago.
“It’s not just one super team that’s beating everyone,” said junior defensive tackle Braylon Rigsby, one of two Texas Tech transfers (cornerback Mo Horn) on OSU’s roster.
OSU’s other five games: vs. Colorado, at Iowa State, at Kansas State, at Arizona State, vs. Kansas. The combined Big 12 record of those teams: 2-9.
The Big 12 has five teams without a conference win. OSU has played or will play four of the five.
There are also five Big 12 teams, including OSU, without a conference loss. Of the other four, OSU only plays Texas Tech. None of BYU, Utah or Baylor — a combined 7-0 in Big 12 play — are on the Cowboys’ schedule.
Which is why this Houston game is so big. The Cougars’ only loss was by two points at Texas Tech. Willie Fritz’s bunch is a legitimate Big 12 contender, but the Cowboys could put two losses between them and the Cougars and own the head-to-head tiebreaker.
“This is where we want to be,” Morris told his team this week. “These are the games that you dream about playing in … in these atmospheres and on national TV and all the things that come along with it.”
It’s a tiny sample, but the Big 12 has been a one-bid league in the two years of the expanded 12-team playoff. The conference champion has automatically gotten in, and that’s it. Arizona State in 2024 and Texas Tech in 2025.
OSU linebacker Tate Romney was on that 2024 Arizona State team, which was picked to finish dead last in the preseason poll — a prediction so off that the Big 12 ceased conducting a preseason poll. These Cowboys came in with higher expectations, but they also carried the baggage of back-to-back winless Big 12 seasons.
The Big 12 isn’t as deep or talented as the Big Ten or SEC, but it might be the best conference when you sort by unpredictability.
“Since I’ve been in the Big 12, it’s almost been like that every single year,” said Romney, now at his third Big 12 school.
A reminder of the playoff format: Each of the Power Four (ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, SEC) conference champions gets an automatic playoff bid. Then the highest-ranked team from the Group of Six ranks — conference champion or not — gets in. And there’s a special clause for Notre Dame: If the Fighting Irish are in the top-12 of the committee’s rankings, they’re automatically in. So, without penciling in Notre Dame, there are seven at-large spots.
OSU’s most likely path of snagging an at-large spot is by winning out in the regular season and losing in the Big 12 title game. That would include quality wins at Houston and vs. Texas Tech, and an Oregon win that’s not looking as amazing.
But does a 10-2 OSU get in as an at-large? I don’t see it. The Cowboys’ conference schedule is too weak. And then there’s the Tulsa loss. There will likely be 9-3 Big Ten and SEC teams with better resumes.
The Big 12’s best chance of getting two teams in is BYU winning out in the regular season, thus netting a massive win over Notre Dame this weekend, and losing in the conference title game. In that case, a one-loss BYU would have a great chance of joining the conference champ in the playoff. Of course there are dozens of other scenarios. It’s early. Probably too early to be talking about OSU making the playoff, but the Big 12 is gettable. And the Cowboys’ path manageable.
Morris and the Mean Green were a win away from making the playoff last year. The North Texas Big Three of Drew Mestemaker, Caleb Hawkins and Wyatt Young are trying to position themselves for another shot having gone up a level.
“It’s a great opportunity to show who we are, how good we are and for people to stop looking down on us like, ‘Maybe they’re good, maybe they’re not,’” Young said. “No, we’re a good team. We want to go prove that this week.”
Joe Mussatto is a sports columnist for The Oklahoman. Have a story idea for Joe? Email him at jmussatto@oklahoman.com. Support Joe's work and that of other Oklahoman journalists by purchasing a digital subscription today at subscribe.oklahoman.com.
This article originally appeared on Oklahoman: Can Oklahoma State make College Football Playoff? It's not a crazy path for Cowboys
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