Penn State vs. Michigan: Game Preview

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The Nittany Lions visit the Big House as they attempt to win their first Big Ten game of the season.

Penn State (3-3, 0-3) vs. Michigan (3-2, 0-2)

Kickoff: 3:30 p.m., Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI

The Betting Line: Penn State+6.5 (Fanduel)

TV: CBS, 3:30 p.m., Brad Nessler (play-by-play), Charles Davis (analyst), Jenny Dell (sideline)

Weather: Sunny and dry, but a cool day with a high of 52 and temps dropping into the 30s in the evening.

Matt Campbell:

PENN STATE RECORD: 3-3, 1st Year

OVERALL RECORD: 110-73, 15th Year

VS. MICHIGAN: 0-0

Kyle Whittingham:

MICHIGAN RECORD: 3-2, 1st Year

OVERALL RECORD: 180-90, 22nd Year

VS. PENN STATE: 0-1

FUN FACTS

Penn State set an all-time Beaver Stadium record during the White Out against USC, with 114,419 in attendance…Audavion Collins is second in the nation in pass breakups with eight…Michigan leads the all-time series 17-10 over Penn State…the Nittany Lions are second in the Big Ten in pass defense and third in turnover margin.

MICHIGAN OFFENSE VS. PENN STATE DEFENSE

Penn State’s offense has been bad. Michigan’s has been atrocious. The Wolverines rank last or second-to-last in the Big Ten in scoring offense, total offense, passing offense, and explosive plays. They are 13th in rushing offense.

The biggest reason for Michigan’s offensive woes is the lack of development for quarterback Bryce Underwood, the top prospect of the 2025 recruiting class. Underwood is in his second year as a starter, but hardly looks it. He routinely misses open receivers, and when he does spot them, he’s had accuracy issues. He just has not looked like a functional Big Ten quarterback with a grasp of the position to succeed. Underwood is completing just 59 percent of his passes with five touchdowns to four interceptions. While he was able to find some rhythm against Iowa, he followed that up with his worst game of the season against Minnesota, completing 10-of-21 passes without a touchdown while being picked off twice.

For what Underwood lacks as a passer, he is a dangerous threat as a runner. The Wolverines have relied heavily on designed quarterback runs to get something out of the offense, and Saturday will be no exception. Opposing offenses have figured out how to get the Nittany Lion defense out of position for big gains on the ground. Michigan will surely have a heavy focus on the run throughout the afternoon.

Michigan’s offensive line is not near the standard of the units that would maul defenses in the late Harbaugh era. They are an average line that has not been able to open holes for easy gains, and have allowed eight sacks on the season.

Running backs Jordan Marshall and Savion Hiter have been the workhorse backs for the offense. Marshall is a physical runner who does not shy away from contact. Hiter is a freshman still getting his feet wet, and averaged 0.8 yards per rush against Oklahoma and 1.1 yards in the loss to Minnesota.

JJ Buchanan and Andrew Marsh are the two leading receivers, and only players on the team with more than five catches this season. Buchanan is used to stretch the field as an explosive play threat, while Marsh is looked to often to keep the chains moving.

This match-up will tell us a lot about the Penn State defense. Michigan’s offense has had trouble moving the ball, while Penn State’s defense has struggled to make consistent stops in Big Ten play. The defensive line has been especially bad, generating no pass rush while being pushed around for easy running lanes. The linebacker play has been poor outside of Tony Rojas, and a big reason why teams have run so freely in recent weeks.

PENN STATE OFFENSE VS. MICHIGAN DEFENSE

Rocco Becht has his best game in conference play against USC. Unfortunately, it wasn’t enough to keep up with Jordan Maiva and the Trojans offense. This trend will need to continue after poor performances against Wisconsin and Northwestern. Unfortunately, the Nittany Lions do not have a reliable run game regardless of who is in the backfield, so Becht will need to bounce back play like the nation’s most experienced quarterbacks if the season is going to be salvaged.

It’s clear Becht misses Koby Howard, who was by far the most explosive option on the offense. Chase Sowell has looked good when given the opportunity, but was shut out in the second half after coming off the field briefly with an injury. Zay Robinson has proven he has playmaking ability as a return man, and could get more involved in the offense with eight catches for 122 yards and a score through six games.

Michigan’s defense will be the clear best unit on the field on Saturday. They lead the Big Ten in total defense and passing defense, with the fourth best run defense giving up just 94 yards a game on the ground. The Nittany Lions will have their hands full moving the ball against this defense.

Troy Bowles, a former Georgia Bulldog, is on track to be an All-Big Ten linebacker. He has excellent quickness and instincts that make him a great sideline-to-sideline player while also making plays in the backfield. John Henry Daley and Nichols are a dynamic duo at defensive end, and will be a trouble spot for an offensive line that has struggled at the tackle position (and center and guard for that matter…). Cornerback Jyaire Hill is another standout who excels in coverage but also has the physicality to be a major run supporter and used in unexpected blitz packages.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Michigan kicker Trey Butkowski only has four field goal attempts, but has made all of them including a season-long 49 yarder. Punter Cam Brown is as steady as they come, averaging 43.3 yards per punt while placing nearly half of his attempts inside the 20.

PREDICTION

Michigan-16, Penn State-13

Both teams have offenses that make fans want to pull out their hair in sheer frustration. I don’t have confidence that either side can regularly move the ball, so expect a low scoring affair. The difference here is the Michigan defense. They will be the best unit on the field by quite a wide margin. They are much more reliable than Penn State’s defense, which has only seemed to get worse from week to week.

Underwood makes some splash plays on the ground that lead to a touchdown and sets the Wolverines in scoring position enough to pull off the victory, handing Penn State its fourth consecutive loss.

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