Michigan State-Northwestern scouting report, prediction: Fitz vs Chiles

Michigan State football continues its 2026 season on Saturday, Oct. 17, with a Week 7 matchup against Northwestern. Here is everything you need to know as the Spartans search for their first Big Ten win of the Pat Fitzgerald era.

Fast facts

Matchup: Michigan State (2-4, 0-3 Big Ten) vs. Northwestern (4-1, 1-1)

Kickoff: Noon, Saturday, Oct. 17; Spartan Stadium, East Lansing.

TV/radio: Peacock/NBC Sports, WJR-AM (760).

Line: Wildcats by 7½.

WELCOME BACK: 'Football’s been fun' for Aidan Chiles, who returns to face depleted Michigan State defense

Michigan State football availability report vs Penn State

As of Thursday, per BigTen.org.

MSU

Out: LB Jordan Hall, LB Brady Pretzlaff, Caleb Wheatland, CB Tyran Chappell, CB Charles Brantley, CB Tre Bell, CB Keshawn Williams, LT Ben Murawski, QB Cam Fancher, RB Cam Edwards, FB Jay Coyne, OL Tristan Comer, TE Joe Caudill, RB Darrin Jones Jr. Questionable: WR Charles Taplin.

Northwestern

Out: DB Josh Fussell, RB Daniel Anderson, LB Max Mohring, LB Jason Reynolds II, DL Callen Campbell, LB Qayvier Johnson, OL David Anchondo, OL Ezomo Oratokhai, OL Jacob Miller, TE Chris Petrucci. Doubtful: LB Amare Jordan, TE Luke Dehnicke. Questionable: DB Robert Ftizgerald, DB Damon Walters. Probable: DB Braden Turner, DB Timi Oke.

Scouting report

When MSU has the ball: After an abysmal first two drives, the Spartans put together their best offensive showing of the season in last Saturday’s 38-37 overtime home defeat to Illinois, their fourth straight loss.

Quarterback Alessio Milivojevic, who took one of his two sacks on a first-play flea-flicker, shook off the slow six-play start and finished 22-for-26 for 196 yards and threw his first two touchdown passes against power-conference opponents to help MSU recover from a 17-0 first-half deficit.

Running back Jaziun Patterson continues to produce after Cam Edwards’ season-ending knee injury, with three rushing touchdowns and a receiving score against Illinois to finish with 118 all-purpose yards. How the protection of Alessio Milivojevlic and the run game holds up, though, without starting left tackle Ben Murawski will be a major concern this week. Northwestern allows 380.6 yards per game (98th among 138 FBS-level teams), and its 233.4 passing yards yielded ranks 15th-most in the Big Ten and 100th in FBS. Star safety Robert Fitzgerald is questionable, and backup cornerback Timi Oke also is banged up for the Wildcats, giving Milivojevic a chance to have a strong game if he isn’t under duress against a bend-but-don’t-break defense that yields just 16.2 points a game (22nd in FBS) despite the yardage allowed.

When Northwestern has the ball:MSU’s injury situation is at a critical mass with starting linebackers Jordan Hall and Brady Pretzlaff out, along with starting cornerbacks Tre Bell and Tyran Chappell. Backups Caleb Wheatland at linebacker and Charles Brantley at cornerback also will miss Saturday, and a others at those positions (linebacker Dion Crawford and cornerback NiJhay Burt among them) playing through issues that have taken them out of games in recent weeks. That leaves defensive coordinator Joe Rossi with an ultra-thin depth chart that could prominently feature two freshmen cornerbacks (Jeremiah Favorite and KJ Deriso) who finished the Illinois game in first-string roles out of necessity.

Burt and Crawford are not listed on the availability report, but the Spartans will be reliant on linebackers DiMari Malone and Cam Stodghill to be the spies in the middle against former MSU quarterback Aidan Chiles.

Northwestern offensive coordinator Chip Kelly’s dynamic and deceptive offense blends elements of the Wing-T and spread schemes, as the Wildcats are averaging 203 rushing yards per game (32nd in FBS and fourth in the Big Ten) and scoring 35.4 points a game (37th in FBS). Northwestern’s 437.4 total yards a game ranks 41st nationally, and the offense has committed just two turnovers – both fumbles – this season.

Know the foe

Chiles chilling: After going 8-12 in two seasons as MSU’s starter, Chiles has found significant success with the mentorship of Kelly and Northwestern quarterbacks coach Jerry Neuheisel. The 6-foot-4, 225-pound fourth-year senior from Long Beach, California, is completing 71.4% of his attempts for 1,172 yards with nine touchdowns and no interceptions and has added six rushing TDs. Chiles, who turned 21 last month, has 73 yards on 44 attempts but is a danger to break into the open field with the dynamic athletic ability MSU fans saw the past two years (when he wasn’t evading defenders who sacked him 51 times in that span). He has been sacked nine times this season.

What Braun does for NU: MSU coach Pat Fitzgerald hired David Braun away from North Dakota State to be his defensive coordinator in January 2023, but they never coached a game together. Fitzgerald was fired that summer, and Braun was promoted to his first top coaching job. The 41-year Braun – who played collegiately at Division II Winona State and had not even been a position coach at the FBS level before taking over for Fitzgerald – has thrived in his four seasons with the Wildcats. He led Northwestern to an 8-5 season and won Big Ten coach of the year in 2023 and went 7-6 last season, winning bowl games both seasons, and has a 23-20 overall record and a 12-17 mark in the Big Ten.

Suddenly surging: With Chiles operating Kelly’s offense to precision, the Wildcats have quietly taken a big leap this season. Their lone loss was a 29-23 dogfight on the road against No. 4 Indiana on Sept. 25 in which Chiles went 22-for-30 for 293 yards with two touchdowns but the ground game sputtered with just 32 yards. A week later, Northwestern went to Penn State and stunned the Nittany Lions with 413 rushing yards in an impressive 34-13 victory. Braun’s squad has also beat Colorado (41-7), FCS-level South Dakota State (34-18) and Ball State (45-14).

Chris Solari's two cents

Northwestern legend: Fitzgerald will coach against his alma mater for the first time since his dismissal in the summer of 2023, though he spent much of his Monday press conference deflecting the emotional impact it may have on him. As a linebacker for the Wildcats from 1993-96, Fitzgerald became an All-American, the first player to win both the Nagurski and Bednarik trophies as the nation’s top defensive player (1995 and 1996) and was a 2008 College Football Hall of Fame inductee. After taking over as coach following the death of Randy Walker before the 2006 season, Fitzgerald became the program’s all-time winningest leader over his 17 seasons in purple (110-101 overall, 65-76 Big Ten) and led Northwestern to the league title game twice.

Been a minute: MSU has not played Northwestern since the 2021 season opener, but the Spartans are on a three-game win streak against the Wildcats. The last was Kenneth Walker III's breakout performance on the road, along with wins in 2019 and 2020. But Fitzgerald defeated Mark Dantonio's MSU teams in four of the five previous meetings, including wins at Spartan Stadium in 2012, 2015 and 2018. The Spartans own a 40-20 all-time advantage in the series, including a 19-9 home record.

Prediction

The Spartans’ offensive improvement isn’t enough to overcome the dearth of depth on the defensive side with all of the injuries. Chiles exploits the inexperienced linebackers and cornerbacks, and Milivojevic’s late comeback attempt falls short in a fifth straight loss. The pick: Northwestern 31, MSU 23.

Contact Chris Solari: csolari@freepress.com. Follow him @chrissolari.

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This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Michigan State-Northwestern scouting report, prediction: Fitz vs Chiles