Rutgers vs Maryland Prediction, Pick, College Football Odds for Saturday, Oct. 17

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The Rutgers Scarlet Knights take on the Maryland Terrapins in College Park, MD. Kickoff is set for 12:30 p.m. ET on BTN.

Maryland is favored by -4.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -196. The total is set at 57.5 points.

Here’s my Rutgers vs. Maryland prediction and college football pick for Saturday, October 17, 2026.

My Maryland vs. Rutgers best bet is on Duff to score at least twice for the Scarlet Knights. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.

Rutgers vs Maryland Odds

• Rutgers vs Maryland point spread: Maryland -4.5 (-115), Rutgers +4.5 (-110)
• Rutgers vs Maryland over/under: 57.5 (-110o / -110u)
• Rutgers vs Maryland moneyline: Rutgers +162, Maryland -196

Rutgers is returning to QB Dylan Lonergan, who missed various games and series for varying reasons. The official prognosis was due to injury, but after throws like this, it seems really unlikely that he wasn’t just benched in favor of AJ Surace.

But either way, Greg Schiano assured the nation that Lonergan is the starter this week.

Sure.

Aside from superstar KJ Duff, Rutgers doesn’t roster a power conference football team — hell, after its blowout loss to UMass (improved or not), it’s hard to argue in favor of this being a full FBS-worthy roster.

Duff leads the country with more than a 46% target rate, and his seven touchdowns account for more than half of Rutgers’ team passing touchdowns.

But the real issue is Rutgers’ defense. New DC Travis Johansen hasn’t been able to drag the Scarlet Knights out from the doldrums, where they still sit 130th in points per drive.

They also are giving up 7.46 yards per play (133rd), and the defense isn’t creating enough havoc plays (turnovers, tackles for loss, sacks). The defensive line is undersized and gets pushed around weekly. The secondary doesn’t have enough talent or depth to run Johansen’s positionless secondary scheme.

With four extremely physical run-focused offenses on the horizon, the worst is yet to come for Rutgers.

Time is running out for Mike Locksley. It was already a surprise when he returned for 2026 after a losing season in 2025, but four straight uncompetitive losses might have him on the hook.

Perhaps the decision is already made, but this week’s game against Rutgers — Maryland tabbed its homecoming game for this week, and Rutgers is 1-4 — is likely win-or-go-home for the seventh-year coach.

The problem shouldn’t be roster talent. Malik Washington is extremely talented but hasn’t shown a ton of growth in his second year starting (six interceptions, seven turnover-worthy throws).

Maryland’s trio of pass rushers in Sidney Stewart, Zahir Mathis and five-star Zion Elee is legitimately as good as almost anyone in the Big Ten. But Mathis was lost before the season began, giving way to Elee.

Maryland can’t run the ball behind a bad offensive line, and it can’t defend the run due to exceptionally poor tackling. Despite one of the most experienced secondaries in the country and a good pass rush, Maryland’s pass defense is porous.

But the biggest concern here is a seeming lack of urgency for this team. Maryland made a push late against Virginia Tech in a game that wasn’t nearly as close as the final score indicated, but coming up short took the wind out of the sails.

Maryland was obliterated, 54-3, at home against UCLA the following week. The next two games combined against Nebraska and Ohio State tallied 93-39 — bringing its Big Ten point margin to a concerning -105.

Welcome to the “Who Wants It Less” bowl. A totally non-competitive Rutgers team comes off a bye week with Northwestern, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nebraska and Penn State on tap.

Maryland is staring down a bye next week, and you’d have to imagine a loss Saturday brings the end of the Locksley era. Anything short of a competitive loss may also spell the end of Schiano’s tenure.

Neither coach is working with much, but someone has to win this football game.

In terms of line play, both teams are awful. Maryland has the defensive edge with Elee and Stewart and, perhaps, at quarterback. But this is a team that’s on the verge of total collapse, if we’re not already there — I can’t back a team so clearly on the precipice of quit territory.

With Lonergan back, expect Duff’s target share to only go up. Against UMass, Duff saw 16 targets; against USC, 13 targets (Lonergan did not play against Boston College).

Maryland has struggled mightily to defend top-end receivers like Duff. Jeremiah Smith scored twice and racked up 93 yards — of course, that can be chalked up to Smith considering that it’s his baseline this year — and Kwazi Gilmer hauled in 11 passes for 147 yards and two scores.

In a rare prop play, I’m looking to capitalize on Lonergan’s reliance on Duff and Maryland’s inability to cover elite receivers.

I don’t want any part in the side or total in a slap fight between two coaches with one foot already pushed out the door.

Pick: KJ Duff to Score 2+ TDs (+240)

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