Expert predictions for Wisconsin vs. UCLA: Do most see a Badger upset?
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The Wisconsin Badgers are taking on the No. 12 UCLA Bruins at the Rose Bowl on Saturday afternoon, as they look to pull off the upset as slight underdogs heading into kickoff.
The Badgers are now seen as 1.5-point underdogs on FanDuel after starting the week as three-point dogs, and it should be a feisty battle between two elite defenses on a hot day in Pasadena.
At 4-1, Wisconsin has turned things around to start the season, but has a big opportunity to make a statement with a win over the top-15 Bruins on Saturday. Standing as the first team out of the AP Top 25, a win should get them ranked, and the Badgers will be facing a different challenge, as UCLA is on to backup quarterback Ty Dieffenbach.
In our Reacts poll this week, we gauged how fans felt about Wisconsin upsetting UCLA, and the results were quite one-sided.
Nearly 80 percent of Badgers fans believe Wisconsin will secure the upset. What do the experts predict?
The Action Network’s Ryan Minion: UCLA to cover
“We’re in for a stellar matchup on Saturday evening between two Big Ten foes, both of whom enter Week 7’s matchup in red-hot form over the last several weeks. While Wisconsin boasts an elite secondary that ranks ninth in the country, allowing just over 150 passing yards per game, the Badgers’ defensive unit has proven to be far more vulnerable against the run.
“Expect Wisconsin’s defensive efficiency to decrease a bit against a UCLA offense that relies heavily on its rushing attack, which could be even further exacerbated given Iamaleava’s season-ending injury. The Bruins have one of the most dominant ground games in all of college football, ranking sixth nationally while racking up over 253 rushing yards per contest.
“Chesney’s offense is structured to exploit a weak Badgers’ front seven, and I fully expect the former JMU head coach to bypass Wisconsin’s elite secondary by merely pounding the rock for all four quarters. This is an extremely well-coached UCLA squad that holds a substantial schematic edge and will get the benefit of playing in front of a packed home crowd on Saturday night.
“That said, I feel confident backing the Bruins to cover the -2.5 spread as the primary handicap ahead of Saturday night’s Big Ten showdown.”
Covers’s JD Yonke: Badgers to cover and under to hit
“I’m on Wisconsin at any underdog price. UCLA has garnered many of the headlines for its upstart 5-0 beginning under Bob Chesney, but Wisconsin (4-1, with its sole loss coming to Notre Dame) has also been very impressive.
“The Bruins could struggle offensively going forward now that Nico Iamaleava is out for the season. Ty Dieffenbach had a 9:9 TD-to-INT ratio at Cal Poly last season, so this will be a one-dimensional unit.
“Wisconsin’s defense is tremendous, allowing 4.1 yards per play, and the offense has generated the second-most explosive plays in the nation.”
College Gameday
Desmond Howard: Wisconsin
Nick Saban: UCLA
Pat McAfee: UCLA
Steve Young: UCLA
Kirk Herbstreit: Wisconsin
On3’s Andy Staples: Wisconsin to cover
“UCLA lost QB Nico Iamaleava during its win at Oregon. Cal-Poly transfer Ty Dieffenbach said he didn’t know he was QB2 until Bruins coach Bob Chesney put him in the game to replace Iamaleava.
“The UCLA offense is still going to revolve around the run game and tailback Wayne Knight. But the best thing Wisconsin does is stop the run. For UCLA to stay undefeated, the Bruins probably will need to score some points through the air.”
Staff Predictions
In a surprise, I’ve got Wisconsin to pull off the upset, as I believe they’ll hit on a few key explosives in the air, while finding a way to mitigate the run game of UCLA enough to edge out a close win. Turnovers, third downs, and establishing the run are all keys. UCLA is exceptional on defense at each of these.
But with a new quarterback at the helm, plus Wisconsin coming off the bye, I have them winning 20-17.
Scary gave his three cases for the game, with Wisconsin winning in the best case, getting blown out in the worst case, and losing by 10 in the most likely case.
“I really want to call a Badger win here, believe me. But my heart can’t quite convince my head to follow it there.
“While I believe Wisconsin has several nice moments and definitely comes to play, Chesney’s mojo will prove a bit too strong for Bucky, and the Bruins take advantage, as they did against the Ducks, of a turnover discrepancy to keep the Badgers just a few steps behind all game.
“While there will be no reason to panic after this result, it still feels like a missed opportunity to make a statement that the Badgers are truly back. This will have to wait at least another week or two, but the opportunities will definitely be there in the form of ranked USC Trojans and Iowa Hawkeyes teams.”
I think it’s very realistic for UCLA to win. They’ve got a ton of advantages in this game and are playing exceptional football right now. But the circumstances I laid out give Wisconsin a slight edge for me in a tough environment.
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