Ohio State vs Indiana Prediction, Pick, College Football Odds for Saturday, October 17

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The Ohio State Buckeyes take on the Indiana Hoosiers in Bloomington, Indiana, on Saturday, Oct. 17. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on FOX.

Ohio State is favored by -3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -182. Indiana, meanwhile, enters as a +3.5 underdog and is +150 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 50.5 total points.

Here’s my Ohio State vs. Indiana prediction and college football pick for Saturday, October 17.

My Indiana vs. Ohio State best bet is on the Hoosiers to cover as short home underdogs and for the game to stay under the total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.

Ohio State vs Indiana Odds

• Ohio State vs Indiana Spread: Ohio State -3.5 (-110), Indiana +3.5 (-110)
• Ohio State vs Indiana Over/Under: 50.5 (-110o / -110u)
• Ohio State vs Indiana Moneyline: Ohio State -182, Indiana +150

Revenge is on Ohio State‘s mind after losing the Big Ten Championship to Indiana last season.

Head coach Ryan Day had plenty of success overseeing the offensive play-calling, creating five pass explosives with quarterback Julian Sayin under center.

The Buckeyes generated over 250 yards of passing in the championship game, with 10 targets and 144 yards going to Heisman hopeful Jeremiah Smith.

The more surprising number is the final score. Smith ran wild in the passing game, but Ohio State managed to score just 10 points.

While the offense looks to an explosive passing attack, the defense has been one of the best in FBS against the pass.

Coordinator Matt Patricia’s 3-3-5 defense ranks top-15 in Success Rate against the pass while grading second overall in coverage, per PFF.

Cover 1 and Cover 3 have been the go-to looks for the Ohio State defense, preventing explosives at a top-20 rate in standard downs.

However, there have been leaks when it comes to rush defense, with a rank outside the top 50 in Success Rate.

The Buckeyes have been fantastic against zone read, but teams that use man blocking assignments have controlled the line of scrimmage . Ohio State ranks 60th in Line Yards, producing a low 25% Success Rate when opponents use man-blocking run concepts.

Although Indiana‘s turnover margin sits at +3 on the season, the Hoosiers have had no luck with loose balls. Head coach Curt Cignetti’s defense has seen nine opponent fumbles through six games without a single recovery .

Despite a low turnover margin in favor of Indiana, the defense has been lights-out against the rush. The Hoosiers rank fifth in Rushing Success Rate allowed and seventh in Defensive Line Yards, stopping opponents with inside zone at a 71% clip.

Indiana has also dominated counter, a key run concept that complements inside zone.

Defensive coordinator Bryant Haines has a defense that’s second-best in FBS at shutting opponents down on standard downs. A big part of that is the fact that the Hoosiers have the third-most tackles for loss, led by EDGE Tobi Osunsanmi.

Offensively, the rushing attack has taken a step back from Indiana’s 2025 production, as Lee Beebe Jr. and Turbo Richard spearhead a Success Rate just outside the top 50.

The offensive line has done its part in clearing holes, ranking top-25 in both Line Yards and Stuff Rate.

Richard has been the spark plug for a rush attack that’s 35th in EPA, averaging 4.9 yards after first contact. Despite 27 fewer rushing attempts, Richard has forced 31 missed tackles compared to Beebe’s 22.

The transition from Fernando Mendoza to Josh Hoover has seen little drop-off for the Indiana passing attack, as the TCU transfer has no interceptions and just a single turnover-worthy play on the season .

Wide receivers Charlie Becker and Nick Marsh have been electric, each racking up 41 targets and at least 3.7 yards per route run.

The first handicap is how Indiana’s defense will handle the threat of Smith on every snap Ohio State plays.

Smith provided eight catches and explosives in the Big Ten Championship, but a collective effort in the second level kept the receiver from the end zone. The only touchdown from the Buckeyes was scored by Carnell Tate, who has since moved on to the NFL.

The biggest issue in OSU’s passing game is the lack of a second option for Sayin. Devin McCuin ranks second in targets, but his 21 targets are dwarfed by Smith’s 66.

Expect Indiana to limit every player on the field not named Smith while minimizing assignment errors and missed tackles.

The game plan worked in last year’s Big Ten Championship, but with Smith involved in a heavier amount of motion, the Hoosiers have their work cut out for them in Week 7.

On the ground, Ohio State’s rushing attack may have issues getting jump-started against Indiana.

The Buckeyes utilize both inside and outside zone at a high Success Rate with Bo Jackson. The sophomore averages 3.9 yards after first contact, but Indiana has dominated inside zone this season.

Any success in the running game will come outside the tackle box with no expectation of explosives, as Indiana has allowed just two opponent rushing attempts to exceed 20 yards .

The path to success is much clearer for Indiana’s run game, as its secondary run concept of man-blocking assignments is a large weakness for Ohio State.

That leads to Richard, who has a near even split of zone-read and man-blocking rushing attempts. The Buckeyes rank 62nd in Rush EPA allowed, so Richard should be the driving force behind moving the chains to create methodical drives.

A grind of a game is expected, and Indiana should have the better rushing offense in the final box score.

The Hoosiers’ key is limiting explosives on defense and limiting breakaway scores for Smith. The biggest gap in the game is Ohio State’s limited receiving unit, as Sayin has been hesitant to target any option other than Smith.

Action Network’s Betting Power Ratings call for Ohio State to be favored by -1.5, giving Indiana the edge in the current market.

Pick: Indiana +3.5 ·  Under 51

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