Michigan State Is An 8.5-Point Home Underdog. Three Keys To Win
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Pat Fitzgerald and the 2-4 Spartans are still looking for their first Big Ten win of the season after losing to Illinois 38-37 in overtime last week. Michigan State vs. Northwestern now asks a defense down its top four cornerbacks and top three linebackers to slow the newly ranked No. 25 Wildcats, led by former Spartans quarterback Aidan Chiles, who has Northwestern at 4-1.
Force Chiles’ First Interception Of The Season
Aidan Chiles has been nearly perfect for Northwestern this season: nine touchdowns and no interceptions. Chiles also leads the Big Ten in completion percentage at 71.4%. While Chiles hasn’t thrown a pick this season, he has experience throwing them in East Lansing. In 2024, he threw six of his 11 interceptions at home, and he added one more in Spartan Stadium last season before he was benched.
While the Spartans have only two interceptions this season, the one last week helped swing momentum and set up overtime for MSU. Michigan State safety Devin Vaught grabbed an interception with 1:41 left in the third quarter and returned it 37 yards to the Illinois 11-yard line. The offense responded right away, with Jaziun Patterson rushing for a touchdown on the first play after the interception.
Alessio Milivojevic To Keep Hot Hand
Michigan State quarterback Alessio Milivojevic has struggled to find his groove, but he worked efficiently last week. He completed 84.6% of his passes, his first game over 80% this season, and he enters Saturday with 1,047 passing yards. He also threw two touchdowns after a three-week drought with none. If the Spartans want a chance to win, Milivojevic will need to bring his improved play from last week and not regress to his previous level.
Limit Additional Injuries
The Spartans’ injury report is already lengthy, with multiple position groups forced to start multiple backups. The cornerback room has the most absences, with four players ruled out. The linebacker room is next, with three out, including Jordan Hall. The Detroit News reported in September that Hall wears the green dot that carries coach-to-player communication on defense, and that Brady Pretzlaff filled that role when Hall was unavailable. Both are out Saturday, so it is unknown who Pat Fitzgerald and Michigan State defensive coordinator Joe Rossi will put in the headset.
Michigan State will need to remain as healthy as possible and not add names to the lengthy injury report. Especially on defense, the Spartans are already playing third-stringers and lack the depth to lose any additional positions. While injuries are hard to control, Fitzgerald will need to find the best way to keep his players safe.
How To Watch Michigan State vs. Northwestern
- Matchup: No. 25 Northwestern Wildcats 4-1 (1-1) at Michigan State Spartans 2-4 (0-3)
- Kickoff: Saturday, Oct. 17, noon ET
- Where: Spartan Stadium, East Lansing
- Streaming: Peacock
- Radio: WJR 760 AM (Spartan Media Network)
- Odds:Northwestern -8.5, total 49.5 as of Friday afternoon
Our Take:
If Michigan State wins, it is because they can force Aidan Chiles into his old turnover ways. Chiles has worked efficiently under Northwestern offensive coordinator Chip Kelly; Pat Fitzgerald will need to get who’s left of his defense ready. Milivojevic will also need to play well to match the high-scoring Wildcat offense.
Our Prediction:
While the Spartan offense may work well against Northwestern, their defense seems to be missing too many starters to slow down a Wildcat team that has scored at least 30 points in all but one game this season. Northwestern will likely win, though a high-scoring battle is possible.
Our Pick: Northwestern 38 – Michigan State 27
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