Three things to watch during UNC’s road game against Syracuse
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UNC hopes to get its third win a row and fifth on the season Saturday at the expense of Syracuse. Currently winless in the ACC at 0-4, Syracuse’s two wins this season have come over New Hampshire by a lot and by one over UConn in OT. Thanks to injury, Syracuse has played four quarterbacks so far this season, and at the moment, which one starts against UNC is anyone’s guess. We know it won’t be a true freshman from the scout team on a lacrosse scholarship. Maybe a true sophomore from the scout team on a lacrosse scholarship?
Many UNC fans have penciled this one as a likely W since preseason, yet no win in the ACC is a given. While Syracuse apparently has offended the football gods sufficiently to lay waste to its QB room for the second season in a row, Syracuse played Virginia and Louisville tough in its last two outings. Here are three ways Syracuse could be a problem in Kenan Stadium Saturday afternoon.
Explosives: Syracuse makes a lot and gives up a lot. UNC’s kind of the opposite. Which one wins out?
Syracuse’s defense explosive play allowed rate is 12%. UNC’s is 6%.
UNC averages around 6 explosive plays a game. Syracuse’s offense averages around 9 explosive plays a game.
In the graphic below, that’s why Syracuse sits in the upper left hand quadrant while UNC resides in the lower right hand quadrant.
The ACC’s leader in receiving yards isn’t Malachi Toney or Carlos Hernandez. It’s Syracuse’s Umari Hatcher, on the same number of receptions of the other two. UNC’s dealing with a number of injuries in the secondary at the moment. This game might feature more fireworks than UNC fans have become accustomed to.
Which Syracuse quarterback starts against UNC, and who does UNC game plan for?
The ACC availability report could list prior QB starters Angeli, Odom, and Nelson all as questionable, making it impossible to know who takes the first snaps Saturday night. That might work to Syracuse’s advantage.
Steve Angeli opened the season for the Orange, but he regressed significantly against California, throwing three interceptions, including a game-sealing pick six. Against Pitt, he threw two more interceptions before being benched. Officially, he’s receiving treatment for his Achilles, the injury that sidelined him last season after a hot start. However, his play prior to the benching has him ranked second-to-last in the ACC in QBR, one spot ahead of Tait Reynolds – whose best game of the season came against the Tar Heels.
Amari Odom replaced Angeli in the Pitt game and played the entirety of the game against UConn. Odom, who transferred to Syracuse from Kennesaw State, went 35-45 for 386 yards, five touchdowns, and two interceptions across those two games. An injury to his throwing shoulder knocked him out of the starting job.
Malachi Nelson is a former 5-star recruit who started at Southern California, transferred to Boise State, then transferred to UTEP, and then transferred to Syracuse. Nelson started against Virginia and Louisville with Angeli and Odom unavailable.. His stats in those two games: 42-70 for 532 yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions. However, a foot injury late against Louisville put him on the sidelines late.
Enter Danny Lauter, a fifth year QB who spent the four prior seasons at Georgetown. For the season, he’s 5-11 for 74 yards and a touchdown.
For the season, Syracuse has the fourth-most passing yards per game in the conference. They’re going to throw it no matter who’s healthy enough to play QB Saturday in Chapel Hill. If it’s Lauter, it will be the sixth QB in his first FBS start to face Bill Belichick and the ninth opposing QB with a QBR under 50 (not including FCS opponents) entering the game.
“A different team every week”
College football teams have to learn how to handle adversity, and Heaven knows UNC football has dealt with nonstop adversity since the moment Bill Belichick and Mike Lombardi took over the program. For the first time in Belichick’s tenure, the team sits on a winning record, fielding a resume that’s starting to get positive national attention. A 7:30 p.m. kickoff designation for Miami on Halloween night has many UNC fans remembering 2004, a shocking upset by a 3-4 UNC team over the 4th ranked Hurricanes. Rumblings of a possible Game Day visit to Chapel Hill have started.
College football teams also have to learn how to handle success. Saban called it “rat poison.” Psychologists call it “relief syndrome.” UNC just experienced a highly emotional win over Duke. Throw in that Miami game looming after Syracuse. Add an eight point spread in UNC’s favor (as of press time). Can we call this Syracuse game a potential let-down game? College football loves to trip up teams that relax a little after an emotional win while also looking ahead to a spotlight game. This game fits the definition for UNC.
Finally, Syracuse sits in last place in the ACC, 0-4 in the conference. That makes the Orange a dangerous team. Teams backed into a corner either quit or up their fight, and Syracuse to date has shown no sign of quit. In their last two games, they lost by only three to Virginia in Charlottesville and trailed Louisville by five points heading into the fourth quarter. Syracuse is still competing and has some weapons.
Lou Holtz famously – and accurately – said college head coaches get a different team every week, given injuries and the mercurial collective emotions of developing adults. As UNC prepares for its fourth game in four weeks, the Tar Heels must stay focused as it tries to string together three wins a row for the first time under Bill Belichick.
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