ACC Championship Game Preview: Duke vs Virginia
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ACC Championship Game Preview: Duke vs Virginia
Duke (7-5, 6-2) faces Virginia (10-2, 7-1) in the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game Saturday evening at 8 pm EST in Charlotte, NC at Bank of America Stadium. Television coverage is on ABC. Virginia is favored by three points. Duke is riding a two-game win streak with wins over Wake Forest and North Carolina. Virginia has also won two games in a row with wins over Virginia Tech and Duke.
Previous Head-to-Head Matchup: Virginia overwhelmed Duke 34-17 in Durham at Wallace Wade Stadium on November 15. Duke Head Coach Manny Diaz stated in his post-game comments, “We were thoroughly outclassed in every category by Virginia tonight.” Virginia completely shutdown Duke’s running game by dominating at the line of scrimmage. Cavaliers quarterback Chandler Morris passed for 316 yards and two touchdowns, and running back J’Mari Taylor rushed for 133 yards and two touchdowns in the win. Two statistics which stick out from the first game are Total Yards and 3rd Down Conversions. Virginia had 540 yards offense and converted 12-19 3rd downs while Duke had 255 yards offense and was a paltry 4-15 on 3rd down conversions. Those two numbers go hand-in-hand. The Blue Devils must do much better converting 3rd downs to sustain drives in order to bring home the championship trophy. Equally important is the Duke defense doing a better job stopping Virginia on 3rd downs.
Common Opponents: In addition to the head-to-head matchup discussed above, Duke and Virginia played four common opponents during the season with the Blue Devils compiling a 4-0 record and Virginia a 2-2 record in those games. Duke beat N.C. State, California, North Carolina and Wake Forest. Virginia beat California and North Carolina but lost to N.C. State and Wake Forest.
Coach Diaz stated during the Sunday ACC Championship Game press conference, “[t]here will be some things on the chalkboard that both teams want to hone in on, but the big thing for your guys is just to play better. We played poorly that night.” Coach Diaz went on to emphasize Virginia deserved much credit for making Duke play poorly.
Virginia Head Coach Tony Elliot was asked about playing a team for the second time in the same season and he responded, “You got to throw out what you did in the previous game to be honest with you. This game is going to come down to execution and I’m sure we will get Duke’s best effort. Since our game you see they have gotten back in rhythm offensively and been able to score a bunch of points.”
Offense: Virginia likes to run the ball averaging 188.7 yards per game on the ground led by running back J’Mari Taylor with 83.1 ypg. Taylor has 207 carries for 997 yards and 14 touchdowns. The Cavaliers have 28 rushing touchdowns as a team. Priority number one for the Duke defense will be slowing down and containing the Virginia rushing attack. The Cavaliers ground attack racked up 224 yards with two touchdowns in the November 15 win over Duke.
In the passing game, Virginia averages 244.5 yards per game. Quarterback Chandler Morris has 14 touchdowns against seven interceptions. Morris threw for 316 yards and two touchdowns in the first game against Duke but he did throw two interceptions including a Pick 6.
Leading receiver Trell Harris has 56 receptions for 809 yards and five touchdowns. Jahmal Edrine has 39 receptions for 484 yards and one touchdown while slot receiver Cam Ross has 43 receptions for 459 yards and two touchdowns. Out of the backfield, J’Mari Taylor has 39 receptions for 219 yards.
Defense: Virginia plays stingy defense yielding only 20 points per game, which is second best in the conference. The Cavaliers are fifth in the ACC in rushing defense at 108.9 yards per game and sixth in the ACC in pass defense at 203.4 yards per game. In their win over Duke on November 15, Virginia limited Duke quarterback Darian Mensah to a 51.4 completion percentage, which was a season low. Duke also rushed for a season low 42 yards on 23 carries.
Safety Devin Neal leads the team in tackles with 70 followed by linebacker Kam Robinson with 64. Defensive lineman Daniel Rickert has recorded six sacks and the team’s interceptions leader is defensive back Ja’son Prevard with three.
Duke must achieve offensive balance Saturday night, something they were unable to do in the first game. Successfully establishing the run game is imperative for Duke to be efficient on offense and ultimately win the game.
Prediction: Duke has the number one scoring offense in the ACC at 36.25 points per conference game. The offense has clicked the past two weeks and it will click Saturday night in prime time. Duke 31, Virginia 28.
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