How to understand Oklahoma making the 12-team playoff before USC

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I’m not always a big fan of the comparison game, because every situation comes with its unique challenges. But people within the USC football fan base are going to play it, so we have to talk about it here at Trojans Wire.

Last week, we dove into why Matt Campbell’s new role at Penn State creates a really interesting dynamic of comparison for Lincoln Riley when the Trojans take on the Nittany Lions next season.

This week, we have to talk about Oklahoma. The Sooners are officially in the College Football Playoff without Lincoln Riley, before Riley has been able to figure out how to get the Trojans to the postseason.

Questions

Here’s the potential storylines you could take away from that fact: is Brent Venables a better coach right now than Lincoln Riley? Were Oklahoma’s 3 CFP appearances with Riley more a product of a great situation than a result of Riley’s own efforts?

Get to work

I’m not actually here to argue any of that. What I am instead here to point out is what Oklahoma’s CFP appearance teaches us about how to make the CFP — and instead of sulking or throwing a pity party, what USC can practically do to make sure this is the only time in the near future that Oklahoma gets the better of Lincoln Riley and the Trojans.

Let’s begin:

Defense wins CFP appearances

Oklahoma is in the CFP right now, and USC isn’t, mainly because the Sooners’ defense is better than the Trojans’ defense, plain and simple.

Oklahoma allowed its opponents to score over 21 points only 3 times this season (including in 2 of their three losses). The Sooners held their opponents to single digit scoring five times and in the teens three more times. All of those were wins.

The Sooners do not have an elite offense by any means. If you score 30+ points on the Oklahoma, you are going to make it very hard on John Mateer and company to win the game. Oklahoma lost its only game where it allowed 30+ points this season.

The Trojans, on the other hand, didn’t hold their opponent to single digit scoring even once. Their opponents’ point totals in their three losses: 34, 34, 42.

It’s simple football math: if you make sure your opponent doesn’t score a lot, it’s easier to outscore them, even if you don’t have an elite offense.

It’s not just Oklahoma either: Ohio State, Indiana, Oregon, James Madison, Texas Tech, the Sooners, Miami, Alabama, Georgia, and Texas A&M all rank in the top 20 in the country in total defense. Thats ten of the 12 playoff teams.

USC needs to get better on the defensive side of the ball or they will continue to be on the outside looking in when CFP selection time comes around each year.

Rolling with the punches

Oklahoma was 6-7 last season. I just want to get that out there and let that sink in.

The Venables era at Oklahoma as a whole hasn’t been prettier than the Lincoln Riley era at USC. Oklahoma’s record in 4 Venables seasons: 6-7, 10-3, 6-7, and 10-2 (pending what happens with the Sooners’ CFP appearance). USC’s record in 4 Riley seasons: 11-3, 8-5, 7-6, 9-3 (pending Alamo Bowl).

Not every game is going to go according to plan. Heck, not every season is going to go according to plan. Pete Carroll didn’t win the national title every season that he coached at USC.

Maximize the good seasons

It’s not about never having a bad game or having a bad season. It’s about not wasting the good seasons when they come and winning the big games.

Riley has been a win away from the CFP twice and lost both times. After Venables and Oklahoma had a bad loss to Texas and a heartbreaking loss to Ole Miss in the middle of the season, the Sooners stepped up and beat Tennesee and Alabama while handling business against Missouri and LSU to earn their spot in the playoff.

The difference between the national perception of Riley’s tenure at USC and Venables’ tenure at Oklahoma right now is one game. Oklahoma beat Alabama. USC didn’t beat Oregon. It’s that simple.

Oklahoma’s season proves that USC doesn’t need to win every game, but the Trojans just can’t squander three opportunities to win a big one.

Not all conference changes are created equal

Let’s start by breaking down the conference representation in the college football playoff. The SEC has a whopping 5 teams, the Big Ten has 3 teams, the ACC has one team, the Big 12 has one team, the Sun Belt conference has one team and the American Athletic conference has one team.

Would Oklahoma have made the CFP with a 10-2 record this season if the Sooners were still in the Big 12? Very clearly not. Two-loss Big 12 teams do not cut it in 2025.

But because they are holding their own in the mighty SEC, they get to play on.

Narrative games

It’s all about narratives. On one hand, you could say Oklahoma had 5 ranked wins and only 2 losses, both to ranked teams. Sounds pretty impressive, right? On the other hand, you could say Oklahoma’s best win is against a 3-loss team that also lost to Florida State. No amount of my grumbling is going to change the fact that Alabama is in the playoff, but you get what I mean.

I wouldn’t even argue that the Big Ten is too disrespected. I mean, the conference does boast 3 of the top 5 ranked teams in the playoff. That counts for something.

It’s more that USC is disrespected within the Big Ten and by its fellow Big Ten members. All season long, USC faced allegations that it couldn’t win the Big Ten way, playing smash mouth football in the trenches. USC beat those allegations multiple times, but not before they faced an equity deal that the university deemed unfair.

To tie this all together, it feels like Oklahoma has faced little trouble being accepted nationally as an “SEC team.” USC is still treated like a Pac-12 transplant in the Big Ten. The Trojans are not getting any help from their own conference and national media changing the narrative.

Making the right hires

We’ve talked about how defense is the strength of this Oklahoma team, but they wouldn’t be in the CFP if they couldn’t score at least a little.

The Oklahoma offense is better in 2025 than it was in 2024 largely because Venables hired a good offensive mind to take over that side of the ball this offseason: Ben Arbuckle. Arbuckle quietly did a good job at Washington State in 2024, and the Sooners made the right choice in nabbing him.

Remember, Arbuckle is definitely a big reason why John Mateer is a Sooner. Mateer spent three years at Washington State and followed his OC (and QB coach) Arbuckle to Norman this offseason.

What assistant coaching hire has Lincoln Riley really nailed during his tenure as USC’s head coach? Zach Hanson on the offensive line? You have to hire the right guys around you, especially at the most key coaching positions. USC didn’t take a long enough look at its coaching staff in 2022 when it retained Alex Grinch. The Trojans need to due their due diligence and be honest with themselves as they evaluate the coaching staff this offseason.

4-0 on the road

The Sooners were undefeated on the road this season. Two of those road wins were against ranked teams. Their only losses came in Norman and at a neutral site.

The Trojans were 2-3 on the road and those two wins came against 2-10 Purdue and 7-5 Nebraska. The Trojans won two games against ranked teams at home but all three of their road losses were against ranked teams.

USC needs to get better on the road, plain and simple. Especially against great teams. Teams that can win on the road pave themself an easy road to the College Football Playoff.

Oklahoma did specific things USC did not

It’s no coincidence that Oklahoma was good this year at seemingly everything that USC was not good at. The Trojans don’t need to shift their identity entirely to become like Oklahoma. But they need to get better in a few key categories regardless of how the rest of their football team looks. There’s a few qualities that just basically always translate to winning. The Sooners have those qualities and the Trojans do not.

So fire Lincoln Riley and hire the next coming of Brent Venables? Not exactly. Just be honest about USC’s shortcomings and honest about how to get better at those.

This article originally appeared on Trojans Wire: Oklahoma makes 12 team College Football Playoff before USC

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