2025 Xbox Bowl Prediction: Arkansas State vs Missouri State
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Welcome to your inaugural Xbox Bowl.
We have bowl eligible teams dropping out, or not accepting bids, left and right – because, even though every other college student in America was busy studying for finals in early December, too many football teams didn’t have enough players around after their seasons were seemingly over, or, teams that played in Ireland lost their respective head coach – and there really are too many bowls available, but that doesn’t mean there can’t be one more.
At the time, the artist-formerly-known-as-the-Bahamas-Bowl became the Xbox Bowl because there were two more teams with six or more wins than there were bowl games for them.
All good, here we are in Frisco, Texas, and it’s not like you or the rest of America, has anything better to do at 9:00 pm ET on a Thursday night in December.
Arkansas State is going for its second bowl win, and second winning season, in a row under head coach Butch Jones, and Missouri State gets to have some more fun after winning seven games in a terrific first season at the FBS level.
Arkansas State vs Missouri State: 2025 Xbox Bowl Preview and Pick
How To Watch Arkansas State vs Missouri State
Date: Thursday, December 18, 2025
Game Time: 9:00 pm ET
TV: ESPN2
Location: Frisco Center, Ford Center at the Star
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Why Arkansas State Will Win
Missouri State has a high-powered passing game that can get hot fast, but it also has one really, really big issue.
The offensive front couldn’t stop you and a few friends from getting into the backfield.
The odd part about this is that the running game isn’t all that bad. It’s not a killer, but it’s productive. But only Ball State allowed more tackles for loss, and the pass protection disappears in too many key moments.
Arkansas State isn’t exactly the 1985 Chicago Bears when it comes to generating a pass rush, but it’s not bad. With a little time to prepare, this bunch should be able to dial up the pressure and make big plays behind the line without an issue.
Why Missouri State Will Win
Okay, yeah, the pass protection is tissue paper, but it’s still transitioning from life as an FCS school, and the offensive front is often the hardest thing to put together at a high level.
But veteran quarterback Jacob Clark is still going to bomb away.
Again, the Bears can run a little bit, but when 12 gets any time to work, he’s able to drive the ball down the field and open everything up.
On the other side, Arkansas State might throw a ton, but there’s a whole lot of dinking and dunking going on. Missouri State had problems when teams were hitting the big passes, and not the short-to-midrange ones.
The Bears were 7-0 when teams completed fewer than 6.7 yards per attempt, and 0-5 when they hit that many or more.
Arkansas State averages just 6.5 yards per attempt and only went over 6.7 yards four times. But …
Arkansas State vs Missouri State Prediction, Betting Lines
Arkansas State won those four games when it was able to turn some of those short throws into bigger plays.
Missouri State gave up a ton of yards this season, but there was a lot of bending without breaking. USC went off, but SMU was held in check in a 28-10, mostly because Mo State took the ball away a few times.
Arkansas State has flaws, and one of them is a massive turnover issue. It sometimes overcomes it, and that’s what will happen here.
The Red Wolves will get a big day out of the defensive front, but Missouri State will stay alive with a few key takeaways in a fun and energetic game with lots and lots and LOTS of throws.
(The two teams will combine for close to 80 passes.)
Arkansas State 30, Missouri State 27
Line: Missouri State -2.5, o/u: 56.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 1.5
Must See Rating: 3.5
Consensus Line from BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Related: 2025 68 Ventures Bowl Prediction: Delaware vs Louisiana
This story was originally published by College Football News on Dec 11, 2025, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add College Football News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
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