Florida vs. Auburn prediction, odds, pick for massive SEC clash in Week 3

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Jon Sumrall will get his first taste of Jordan-Hare Stadium as a visiting SEC coach when Florida faces Auburn. It is time to continue the NCAA Football odds series with a Florida-Auburn prediction and pick.

Florida enters the game at 2-0 on the season, but has not faced heavy competition. They opened the season facing in-state rival FAU. The Gators’ offense was dominant in the game, scoring 14 or more points in every quarter, on the way to a 66-21 victory over the Owls. The offense picked up where they left off the next week facing Campbell. Florida put up 45 points in the first half and would go on to win the game 52-3.

Meanwhile, Auburn is also 2-0 on the season. They opened the season against Baylor in Atlanta. They opened the game strong, with a field goal in the first quarter followed by a second-quarter touchdown. Baylor would score before the end of the half, leading to a 10-7 lead for Auburn at the half. In the fourth quarter, Baylor tied the game on a Rhett Armstrong field goal, but with 3:21 left in the contest, Bryum Brown ran in a touchdown to give Auburn the lead. With just nine seconds left, Baylor scored, but decided to go for two. They would miss the conversion, and Auburn escaped with a 17-16 win.

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This will be the 86th meeting between Florida and Auburn. Auburn has 44 wins while Florida has 39 in the series. There have also been two ties. Florida won the last time the two teams met back in 2019, with a 24-13 victory.

Odds provided by DraftKings

Florida vs. Auburn Odds

Florida: -2.5 (-112)

Auburn: +2.5 (-10)

Over: 53.5 (-102)

Under: 53.5 (-118)

Florida vs. Auburn Key Injuries

Florida- WR Eric Singleton Jr. (Questionable), DL Emmanuel Oyebadejo (Questionable)

Auburn- OL Tai Buster (Out), EDGE Joe Phillis (Questionable), TE Hunter Herring (Questionable)

Florida vs. Auburn Betting Trends

– Florida is 1-1 against the spread this year.

– In Florida’s two games, the over has hit once.

– Florida has struggled to cover on the road in conference play. They have covered in 45 percent of their road games in the SEC over the past three seasons.

– Auburn is also 1-1 against the spread this year.

– The under has cashed in each of Auburn’s two games this year.

– The under has hit in four of the last six SEC home openers for Auburn.

Keys to Florida vs. Auburn matchup

Florida has not beaten Auburn since 1999, losing three straight against them on the road. One of the biggest keys for Florida is going to be getting off to a fast start. Florida has been great on the ground this year, sitting fifth in the nation in rushing yards per game. Jadan Baugh has been a stud for the Gators this year. He has run 28 times for 296 yards and five touchdowns already this year. Meanwhile, CJ Hester has run the ball 42 times for 271 yards and three scores. Overall, the team has run for 495 yards and eight scores in two games, while rushing for seven yards per game. The running game has also opened up the passing game. Aaron Philo has had plenty of time to throw, completing 32 of 43 passes for 517 yards with five scores, while not being sacked.

On defense, the focus for the Gators needs to be on Byrum Brown and his off-schedule plays. Brown is a dual-threat quarterback who is great at extending plays that often can be explosive. The Gators have not been great at getting to the quarterback, but have been solid in coverage. They allow just 5.2 yards per pass so far this year, which is 14th in the nation. If the Gators can keep Byrum contained and maintain discipline when rushing the passer, the secondary can do their job and stop the Auburn offense.

For Auburn, they need to find ways to finish drives. This year, Auburn is 113th in the nation in red zone scoring. Against Baylor, Auburn made it to the red zone three times. They scored once on a 15-yard run from Jeremiah Cobb and settled for a field goal once. Meanwhile, Byrum Brown was also intercepted once. They also scored on just three of five trips against Southern Miss. Auburn has struggled to finish drives and often settled for field goals in the red zone. If they cannot find the end zone against Florida, they could be in trouble.

On defense, Sylvester Smith and Kaleb Harris have to thrive. Florida has been great on play action this year, sucking in the safeties to cover the run. Smith and Harris, the two safeties, cannot allow Florida to hit over-the-top plays that are set up by the running game. Auburn is 94th in the nation in opponent passing yards per game this season, and many of the yards have come from big plays. While they are going to give up yards on the team needs to avoid letting Florida hit the big play.

Florida vs. Auburn Tech Prediction and Pick

Jon Sumrall may have a bone to pick with Auburn. His wife went to school there, and his family is full of Auburn fans, as Sumrall grew up in Alabama. It also looked like Sumrall would be taking the Auburn job when it opened, but the deal went south. Sumrall went to Florida while Alex Golesh ended up at Auburn. Both teams have been solid on defense this year overall, limiting points. Further, Auburn has struggled heavily in the red zone this season. This is going to lead to a lower-scoring game. Still, Florida has the more explosive offense and will get the win in this one.

Final Florida vs. Auburn Prediction and Pick: Florida -2.5 (-112) and Under 53.5 (-118)

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