Heisman Watch: It's a 3-man race heading into November
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The Heisman race is very clearly down to three players with a month to go in the 2025 college football season.
Ohio State’s Julian Sayin has emerged as the favorite, but Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza and Alabama’s Ty Simpson are close behind.
As four weeks remain in the regular season — and Sayin and Simpson are staring at five more games to play before Heisman voting concludes while Mendoza will probably have four more games — it’ll be a big surprise if anyone other than these three wins the Heisman Trophy. Only Texas A&M’s Marcel Reed (+750 at BetMGM) appears to have a realistic chance of crashing the party.
Here’s a look at the stats for all three favorites (and Reed) heading into Week 11.
Ohio State QB Julian Sayin (+175)
2025 stats: 176-of-218 passing for 2,188 yards, 23 TDs, 6 interceptions
Remaining regular season games: at Purdue, vs. UCLA, vs. Rutgers, at No. 21 Michigan
Sayin has become the favorite as he’s on pace to shatter college football’s single-season completion percentage record. At the moment, Sayin’s completion percentage is 80.7%, more than three points higher than the record Bo Nix set during the 2023 season at 77.44%.
Nix didn’t win the Heisman that year. He finished behind Jayden Daniels and Michael Penix Jr. But Daniels had thrown for over 3,800 yards and rushed for over 1,100 yards that season, and Penix’s Washington team had taken down Nix’s Oregon team twice.
Could the Heisman race end up coming down to whoever wins the Big Ten title game? Maybe, even though that would be an unfair distillation of how the season has unfolded for both Sayin and Mendoza.
If Sayin does win the Heisman, he’ll continue a recent trend of players winning the award in their first full season as a starter. Both Bryce Young and Caleb Williams won their Heisman Trophies in their first seasons as starters. As he redshirted in 2024, Sayin appeared in four games and threw just 12 total passes.
Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza (+225)
2025 stats: 162-of-225 passing for 2,124 yards, 25 TDs, 4 interceptions
Remaining regular season games: at Penn State, vs. Wisconsin, at Purdue
The Cal transfer has consistently showed why he’s been the top QB on Nate Tice’s NFL Draft board in his first season with the Hoosiers. Mendoza has thrown for multiple TDs in six of nine games so far this season and has also rushed for 220 yards and four scores.
Mendoza has thrown just 43 passes over Indiana’s last two games as well thanks to a run game that’s been dominant in blowout victories and early exits because of those winning margins. The Hoosiers outscored UCLA and Maryland 111-16 in Weeks 9 and 10 as Mendoza was 29-of-43 passing for 369 yards, four touchdowns and two interceptions.
Yeah, he’s doubled his interception total over the past two weeks, but his interception percentage is still at just 1.8% as he’s thrown TDs on more than 11% of his passes. With an extremely easy regular season schedule remaining, we’ll be watching to see how much Mendoza plays if Indiana keeps blowing people out.
Alabama QB Ty Simpson (+350)
2025 stats: 177-of-261 passing for 2,184 yards, 20 TDs, 1 interception
Remaining regular season games: vs. LSU, vs. No. 11 Oklahoma, vs. Eastern Illinois, at Auburn
Will marquee games over the next two weeks help Simpson’s Heisman case? Yes, we realize calling LSU a marquee opponent at this point is a stretch, but it’s still an ABC prime-time game on Saturday night. Ohio State’s game at Purdue starts at 1 p.m. on the Big Ten Network and Indiana’s game at Penn State at Noon ET on Fox is at the same time as the Big 12’s marquee game of the week with BYU and Texas Tech.
Being the top QB on the top team in the SEC can be an advantage in the Heisman race and Alabama is the favorite to make it to the SEC title game. There’s even a chance the Crimson Tide could have a spot in the title game locked up with wins over LSU and Oklahoma.
Re-establishing a connection with Ryan Williams may also be key to Simpson’s Heisman chances. The sophomore wide receiver didn’t have a catch or even a target in Alabama’s win at Missouri. In the two games since, he has 12 grabs for 159 yards but still hasn’t found the end zone since Oct. 4. Will that change on Saturday night against LSU?
Texas A&M QB Marcel Reed (+750)
2025 stats: 137-of-223 passing for 1,972 yards, 17 TDs, 6 interceptions
Remaining regular season games: at No. 19 Missouri, vs. South Carolina, vs. Samford, at No. 13 Texas
Reed is the only other player with odds better than 20-1 to win the Heisman Trophy and will be a Heisman favorite at the very least if the Aggies finish the regular season at 12-0 and face Alabama (or someone else) in the SEC title game.
His rushing ability could also boost his chances. Reed’s legs were (again) why A&M dominated LSU in the second half and he’s rushed for 349 yards and six touchdowns so far this season. He doesn’t have the passing stats that the three other favorites do, but he’s also by far a better rusher than all of them.
A big performance against Mizzou on Saturday will bring Reed’s odds down as the Aggies will be heavily favored to be 11-0 heading to Austin to face their rivals.
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