Updated ESPN FPI prediction for Texas A&M vs. Miami in the CFP

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We’re just five days away from Texas A&M’s (11-1, 7-1 SEC) first College Football Playoff appearance, as the Aggies will host Miami (FL) (10-2) in the first round, which will take place inside what should be a sold-out Kyle Field for an early Saturday afternoon showdown. The Aggies are nearly a month removed from their 27-17 loss to rival Texas, while the Hurricanes won five out of their last six games, including four straight blowout victories.

Both teams are highly similar on paper, possessing NFL-caliber talent on offense and defense, with a clear focus on controlling the line of scrimmage, which has led to dominant performances late in games. However, Miami starting quarterback Carson Beck is often described as a “high variance” player, given his experience and arm talent. Still, he has been the reason the Hurricanes struggled in losses to Louisville and SMU.

Texas A&M’s issues came to light against the Longhorns, as starting quarterback Marcel Reed, who, like Beck, threw for 25 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, struggled in drop-back passing situations that led to nearly every turnover during the regular season. Still, the Aggie run defense has not lived up to its above-average ranking early in the game, mainly due to a run-fit problem at linebacker.

Right now, Texas A&M is a 3.5-point favorite to move on to the quarterfinals against No. 2 Ohio State, which makes a ton of sense given the advantage of playing in Kyle Field, where the Aggies ended the season undefeated, beating every opponent by double digits.

Last week, ESPN’s FPI predictor had the Aggies as a 54% favorite to win, and entering game week, nothing has changed. Texas A&M (54.3%) and Miami (45.7%) are the closest predictions outside of Friday’s matchup between Alabama (50.9%) and Oklahoma (49.1%).

No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 10 Miami kicks off at 11:00 a.m. CT, with coverage on ABC and ESPN.

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This article originally appeared on Aggies Wire: Updated ESPN FPI prediction for Texas A&M vs. Miami in the CFP

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